Early Transition Stages and Heterogeneity in Criminal Careers among Young Offenders*

Dans cet article, nous examinons différents modèles de rapports avec les forces policières parmi des sous-populations hétérogènes de jeunes, dans les premiers stades de transition de leur carrière criminelle. Nous croyons que la recherche axée sur l'hétérogénéité et sur les premiers stades de la transition vers la criminalité peut nous renseigner sur les éléments de la dynamique comportementale - jusqu'ici ignorés - dans l'étude de l'apparition d'un comportement criminel et de sa persistance. À partir de données policières informatisées provenant d'une grande ville de l'ouest du Canada, nous utilisons certains modèles de survie basés sur des événements pour dégager des modèles d'apparition et de persistance de comportements criminels sur une période de six mois, dans les premiers rapports avec la police. Les résultats démontrent des modifications importantes à court terme dans le comportement criminel de sousgroupes de jeunes de niveaux différents. Certains semblent avoir un comportement criminel ponctuel, qu'ils abandonnent par la suite, tandis que d'autres continuent de se comporter en criminels, en augmentant la fréquence et le taux d'infractions. Toutefois, certains modèles hétérogènes existent au sein de ces sous-groupes de jeunes délin quants dans les premières phases de développement de la criminalité. We investigate distinctive patterns of police contacts among heterogeneous subpopulations of youths in the early transition stages of their criminal careers. We argue that research focussing upon heterogeneity and the initial transition stages of criminality can provide insights into behavioural dynamics previously overlooked in the study of the onset and development of criminal careers. Using computerized police archival data from a large western Canadian city, we employ event history survival models to estimate patterns of onset and persistence for delinquent careers over six-month intervals in the early stages of police contact. Our results provide strong evidence of meaningful short-term change in offending among multiple levels of youth subgroups. Some youths appear to offend only briefly and then desist, while others continue offending and at a higher rate. However, there also appear to be patterns of heterogeneity within as well as between these subgroups of young offenders during the early stages of criminal careers.     

Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation

Threshold models have a wide variety of applications in economics. Direct applications include models of separating and multiple equilibria. Other applications include empirical sample splitting when the sample split is based on a continuously‐distributed variable such as firm size. In addition, threshold models may be used as a parsimonious strategy for nonparametric function estimation. For example, the threshold autoregressive model (TAR) is popular in the nonlinear time series literature. Threshold models also emerge as special cases of more complex statistical frameworks, such as mixture models, switching models, Markov switching models, and smooth transition threshold models. It may be important to understand the statistical properties of threshold models as a preliminary step in the development of statistical tools to handle these more complicated structures. Despite the large number of potential applications, the statistical theory of threshold estimation is undeveloped. It is known that threshold estimates are super‐consistent, but a distribution theory useful for testing and inference has yet to be provided. This paper develops a statistical theory for threshold estimation in the regression context. We allow for either cross‐section or time series observations. Least squares estimation of the regression parameters is considered. An asymptotic distribution theory for the regression estimates (the threshold and the regression slopes) is developed. It is found that the distribution of the threshold estimate is nonstandard. A method to construct asymptotic confidence intervals is developed by inverting the likelihood ratio statistic. It is shown that this yields asymptotically conservative confidence regions. Monte Carlo simulations are presented to assess the accuracy of the asymptotic approximations. The empirical relevance of the theory is illustrated through an application to the multiple equilibria growth model of Durlauf and Johnson (1995).     

Toleration or trust? Investigating the acceptance of ‘boat people’ among young Australians

There has been intense debate in Australia regarding how asylum seekers who arrive by boat should be treated. Some call for compassion towards those prepared to risk their lives to seek protection, whereas others believe ‘boat people’ should not be allowed into the country. This article uses data from a large representative sample of young people in Queensland, Australia, to understand the acceptance of asylum seekers by young people in Australia. The findings suggest that young Australians are more accepting than the Australian adult population. Several social and political background factors were also found to be associated with the belief that ‘boat people’ should be permitted into Australia. Fewer factors, however, are associated with the trust young Australians have in people from another country. This suggests that while some young Australians may believe boats carrying asylum seekers should not be turned away, fewer might be prepared to enter into trusting relationships with ‘boat people’ should they resettle in Australia.     

Welfare programs and the state economy

Welfare policy has been controversial and support is often drawn along political affiliation lines, the economic return of investment in welfare programs is frequently cited as a justification for new and expanded policies. To investigate the direct and indirect effects of welfare programs on economic performance, the authors develop a multilink approach, through employment and investment. The relationship is then tested with data from each of the United States from 1976 to 2006. Findings show welfare programs have no direct effect on a state's economy. Indirectly, welfare has a negative effect through investment, though the effect on employment is minimal.     

A Test of Excellent Leadership in Public Relations: Key Qualities,Valuable Sources,and Distinctive Leadership Perceptions

To better understand leadership in public relations and explore its value in successful communication management, this article captured the perceptions of mid- and senior-level public relations executives (N = 222) regarding the important qualities and dimensions of excellent leadership in the practice. According to study participants, strategic decision-making capability, problem-solving ability, and communication knowledge and expertise are the three most important qualities of excellent leadership. In addition, respondents said that on-the-job experiences, individual initiative and desire, and role models are the most valuable sources of leadership skills and development. About half of the respondents indicated that excellent leaders in public relations are different from leaders in other fields in three ways: They must hold a compelling vision for communication, possess comprehensive understanding of media and information systems, and effectively develop and implement strategic communication plans. Professional women and men in the study viewed excellent leadership in more or less similar ways. The study advances understanding of leadership in the field, which has been little explored in the public relations literature.     

Social Stigma and Homelessness: The Limits of Social Change

We examine the issues around the stigmatization of homelessness and how it links to capitalism. Society focuses on the individual as the cause of his or her own state of homelessness, blaming the victim rather than focusing on the larger antecedent social and economic forces, such as unemployment, limited affordable housing, and breakdowns in kinship networks. Social stigma occurs in situations where there is unequal social, economic, and political power and there is an opportunity to label, stereotype, separate (us versus them), lose status, and discriminate. Stigmatization is due, in part, when people feel threatened by another group. Society categorizes people who are homeless as no longer “useful” and/or “functional” members of capitalism, since they do not actively work and support the system. The paper ends on a discussion of the limits of social change in a capitalist society.     

Too close to home? The relationships between residential distance to venue and gambling outcomes

Although gambling accessibility is generally viewed as a multidimensional construct, few studies have successfully untangled the specific role of spatial accessibility in determining gambling outcomes relative to other forms (i.e. temporal, social and psychological). In this paper, we explore the association between gambling outcomes and the distance travelled from a person's home to their most-frequented gambling venue. To this end, we conducted a geocoded mail survey of 7044 households in the Northern Territory of Australia. We employed a geographic information system to calculate the network distance from each household to all visited electronic gaming machine (EGM) venues (n = 64). Multivariate regression modelling revealed that, when adjusted for individual and neighbourhood-level characteristics, frequency of venue visitation and gambling participation were inversely related to residential distance from venue. There was no additional distance effect for problem gambling. Spatial accessibility of EGMs is an important determinant of gambling risk and should be explicitly considered by regulators.     

Amerindian Livelihoods,Outside Interventions,and Poverty Traps in the Ecuadorian Amazon

Recent efforts to explain the persistence of rural poverty have made frequent use of the concept of poverty traps, understood as self‐reinforcing poverty. The dynamic dimension of the poverty trap concept makes it a potentially useful tool for understanding conditions of persistent poverty, especially in circumstances where outside interventions “shock” the system with the intention of ending poverty and disadvantage. This article describes one such effort among a populous group of lowland Amerindians, the Shuar of Ecuador's Amazon region. Three small household surveys conducted at different times during the last 25 years suggest that the Shuar, despite having obtained access to land through a combination of their own efforts and outside interventions, have become enmeshed in a natural‐resource‐degrading poverty trap. Mestizos with land in the same region avoided this trap only by emigrating in large numbers. Secure access to land did not prevent the emergence of a poverty trap among the Shuar in large part because smallholders in Latin America faced difficult macrosociological and ecological conditions during the last decades of the twentieth century.