Discovering Spatio-Temporal Models of the Spread of West Nile Virus

Emerging infectious diseases are characterized by complex interactions among disease agents, vectors, wildlife, humans, and the environment. Since the appearance of West Nile virus (WNV) in New York City in 1999, it has infected over 8,000 people in the United States, resulting in several hundred deaths in 46 contiguous states. The virus is transmitted by mosquitoes and maintained in various bird reservoir hosts. Its unexpected introduction, high morbidity, and rapid spread have left public health agencies facing severe time constraints in a theory-poor environment, dependent largely on observational data collected by independent survey efforts and much uncertainty. Current knowledge may be expressed as a priori constraints on models learned from data. Accordingly, we applied a Bayesian probabilistic relational approach to generate spatially and temporally linked models from heterogeneous data sources. Using data collected from multiple independent sources in Maryland, we discovered the integrated context in which infected birds are plausible indicators for positive mosquito pools and human cases for 2001 and 2002.     

Using the lessons learned from US and English law to create a regulatory framework for charities in evolving democracies

The evolving democracies of Eastern Europe and the former USSR republics are keenly interested in establishing charities. They have little law on this issue because their former governments did not encourage the development of charities. This article compares US and English regulation of charities and proposes a regulatory framework based on what the authors believe are the best attributes of both. Although the framework is based on the common law system, it can be adapted to the civil law systems of the Eastern European nations and the former USSR republics. The article includes such issues as developing a body of law, tax relief and creating a regulatory agency.Mr Hopkins is a lawyer with Powers, Pyles & Sutter, 1275 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20007, and author ofThe Law of Tax-Exempt Organizations (1992a).Ms Moore is also a lawyer, 5908 N. 35th St., Arlington, Virginia 22207.The authors would like to thank Mssrs Kersi Shroff and Stephen F. Clarke, Senior Legal Specialists, American-British Law Division, Library of Congress, and Mr. William H. Morris, an attorney at Steptoe & Johnson, Washington, D.C., for their kind assistance during the researching of this article.     

Undercover Drug-Use Evasion Tactics: Excuses and Neutralization

Although research has examined the corruptive influences of undercover drug operations on agents (Girodo 1991 b; Manning and Reddlinger 1977, 1978), it has not examined the processes by which these influences can be neutralized. In this paper, I address these neutralization processes through a typology of routine and non-routine drug-use evasion tactics. Routine tactics involve excuses based on greed, business constraints, and role obligations (occupational, legal, and interpersonal). Nonroutine tactics involve two components: reverse accusation and simulation. Discussion focuses on excuses where I provide a dramaturgical interpretation that accentuates their deceptive and fraudulent nature, unlike traditional interpretations (e.g., Scott and Lyman 1968) which highlight their role as a reparative technique and aligning action (Margolin 1990). Data were drawn from ethnographic interviews with 35 light undercover narcotics agents located in a moderate-sized midwestern municipality.     

THE SOLUTION-ORIENTED GENOGRAM: A COLLABORATIVE APPROACH

Developed primarily by Bowenian intergenerational therapists, genograms have evolved into largely atheoretical tools used by many therapists. Given that constructivist-based therapies have become the most popular genre of contemporary family therapies (Sprenkle & Piercy, 1992), the author examines how genograms can be used to augment a solution-oriented approach. Specific interventions, case examples, and potential problems associated with such an approach are discussed, along with potential implications for family-of-origin work.     

Do profits “crowd out” donations,or vice versa? the impact of revenues from sales on donations to local chapters of the American Red Cross

This article examines the relationship between donations to the American Red Cross and the profits, sales, costs, and prices of health and safety classes offered by local chapters. Two important questions are examined: Do profits from sales of services “crowd out” donations to local chapters of the American Red Cross? Do managers respond to changes in donations by changing prices, output, or costs of saleable services? The results suggest that nonprofit managers should pay close attention to the potential impact on donations of any change in the prices charged for saleable goods and services, and that profits, costs, and prices of services are influenced by donations.     

Sustainable societies in the information age

This article interweaves the ideas of sustainable development, sustainable societies, and the power of advanced information technologies toward developing recommendations for social science research on information technology in society. Worldwide concern has arisen over the potentially catastrophic consequences of global climate and environmental change. As a result, sustainable development (i.e., the simultaneous protection of both the global environment and the global economy) is receiving considerable attention. Necessary for achieving sustainable development are sustainable societies, which are capable of designing, implementing, managing and evaluating long-term environmental programs. This article presents ten characteristics that describe sustainable societies and discusses how information technologies, from wireless personal digital assistants to intelligent agents to multi-media database systems, could support the evolution of sustainable societies. Topics for social science research related to designing and ameliorating the negative consequences of eight hypothetical computer-based systems are presented. Bruce E. Tonn is leader of the policy systems analysis group at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and co-principal investigator of the National Center for Environmental Decision-making Research. His research interests include environmental and energy policy, computers in society, decision making, and futures studies. He is past president of the Social Science Computing Association. His research focuses on planning, assessment and evaluation, energy use and conservation, and education.