Covid and Public Funds: More Opportunities for a Misuse? The Case of the Intermediate Governments of Galicia

Public Organization Review - Corruption and inefficiency of public funds pose a risk in public administrations. This paper analyses the corruption risk at the local level by analysing indicators of...     

Markov chain importance sampling with applications to rare event probability estimation

We present a versatile Monte Carlo method for estimating multidimensional integrals, with applications to rare-event probability estimation. The method fuses two distinct and popular Monte Carlo simulation methods—Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling—into a single algorithm. We show that for some applied numerical examples the proposed Markov Chain importance sampling algorithm performs better than methods based solely on importance sampling or MCMC.     

Si-GARCH: Construction and validation of a new method for the detection of breaking points in models

In this article, we define a new method (Si-GARCH) for signal segmentation based on a class of models coming from econometrics. We make use of these models not to perform prediction but to characterize portions of signals. This enables us to compare these portions in order to determine if there is a change in the signal’s dynamics and to define breaking points with an aim of segmenting it according to its dynamics. We, then, expand these models by defining a new coefficient to improve their accuracy. The Si-GARCH method was tested on several thousands of hours of biomedical signals coming from intensive care units.     

Conditional ¡-minimax actions under convex losses

The problem of making decisions about an unknown parameter is examined under a convex loss function, when its prior distribution may not be uniquely specified on the basis of the available information. Following the conditional ¡-minimax approach, an action is chosen such that it minimises the maximum posterior expected loss. The characterising properties of such an action, called a conditional ¡-minimax action, are found and illustrated in three examples.     

Declining inequality in Latin America? Robustness checks for Peru

The Journal of Economic Inequality - Household surveys underreport incomes from the upper tail of the distribution, affecting our assessment about inequality. This paper offers a tractable...     

The Process of Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Italian Economy

ABSTRACT: Longitudinal analysis of labour flows provides a number of important indications on the characteristics of job creation and job destruction in the Italian economy, and on the role played by small firms in this process. The main indications may be summarized as follows: 1)the ratio of total separations to total work-force is remarkably high, and almost completely independent of the business cycle: one out of four workers leaves his/her position each year in the economy at large. In the small firms sector alone turnover is much higher, with total separations almost approaching 50|X% of employment; 2)as the economy takes a downturn, it is mainly the number of jobs created through expansion of existing firms that follows this cycle, while separations remain roughly constant; 3)the proportion of jobs created via the establishment of new firms is modest compared to that attributable to the expansion of existing plants (16.0-14.491)). Likewise, the proportion of job losses due to closures visi vis employment shedding by contracting firms, is of the same order of magnitude; 4)job creation and destruction is very high in the small firm sector. Employment in firms of dimension (0-19) is 25.8 % of total employment at the beginning of the observation period (1978) and reaches 28% at its end (1984). Yet the proportion of job creation attributable to small firms is approximately 60% of the new positions due to expansion of existing firms in manufacturing, and 68% in the services. The fraction of jobs destroyed by small firms is somewhat lower: about 46% in manufacturing and 59% in the services; 5)he small firms contribution to net job creation appears even more remarkable both in the aggregate, as well as within all sectors of economic activity and geographical areas. In 1978-80 net employment change in manufacturing is 106,000 units per year; correspondingly net job creation by firms (0-19) is alone 222,000. In the services the proportion between net employment change and the share of the small firms is 1:3. In 1981-83, while in manufacturing over 213,000 jobs are destroyed on average each year, net creation by small firms is still positive (+ 48,000); in the services the overall change is very small (+ 3,000), while the net contribution of small firms is + 53,000.     

Entreprise Management in the USSR: is there a Productivity Drive?*

Abstract. According to some neo-institutional economists, the trade-off of perestroika is between the benefits of solving economic problems via institutional changes and the costs of upsetting the nomenklatura. The “sub-institutional” analysis shows instead a series of organizational adjustments of the productive system that can render this dilemma less pressing, provide Western financial aid increases. This aid will ease the social and political tensions of the transition much more than helping the start of a productivity drive in Soviet firms.