Covid and Public Funds: More Opportunities for a Misuse? The Case of the Intermediate Governments of Galicia

Public Organization Review - Corruption and inefficiency of public funds pose a risk in public administrations. This paper analyses the corruption risk at the local level by analysing indicators of...     

Child Well-Being in Advanced Economies in the Late 2000s

This paper aimed at comparing the well-being of children across the most economically advanced countries of the world while discussing the methodological issues involved in comparing children’s well-being across countries. A Child Well-being Index was constructed to rank countries according to their performance in advancing child well-being. The Index used 30 indicators combined into 13 components, again summarised in 5 dimensions for 29 rich countries. Data from various sources were combined to capture aspects of child well-being: material well-being, health, education, behaviour and risks, housing and environment. The scores for the countries on all variables and combinations of variables were discussed in detail. The Child Well-being Index revealed that the Netherlands and the Scandinavian countries (excluding Denmark) did relatively better than the other countries while Romania and the United States performed well below the average. Overall, serious differences existed in child well-being across countries suggesting that in many, improvement could be made in the quality of children’s lives.     

Markov chain importance sampling with applications to rare event probability estimation

We present a versatile Monte Carlo method for estimating multidimensional integrals, with applications to rare-event probability estimation. The method fuses two distinct and popular Monte Carlo simulation methods—Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling—into a single algorithm. We show that for some applied numerical examples the proposed Markov Chain importance sampling algorithm performs better than methods based solely on importance sampling or MCMC.     

Adaptative Designs for Multi-Arm Clinical Trials: The Play-the-Winner Rule Revisited

Adaptative designs for clinical trials that are based on a generalization of the “play-the-winner” rule are considered as an alternative to previously developed models. Theoretical and numerical results show that these designs perform better for the usual criteria. Bayesian methods are proposed for the statistical analysis of these designs.     

A Method for Simulating Multivariate Non Normal Distributions with Specified Standardized Cumulants and Intraclass Correlation Coefficients

Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) are commonly used indices in subject areas such as biometrics, longitudinal data analysis, measurement theory, quality control, and survey research. The properties of the ICCs most often used are derived under the assumption of normality. However, real-world data often violate the normality assumption. In view of this, a computationally efficient procedure is developed for simulating multivariate non normal continuous distributions with specified (a) standardized cumulants, (b) Pearson intercorrelations, and (c) ICCs. The linear model specified is a two-factor design with either fixed or random effects. A numerical example is worked and the results of a Monte Carlo simulation are provided to demonstrate and confirm the methodology.     

The Process of Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Italian Economy

ABSTRACT: Longitudinal analysis of labour flows provides a number of important indications on the characteristics of job creation and job destruction in the Italian economy, and on the role played by small firms in this process. The main indications may be summarized as follows: 1)the ratio of total separations to total work-force is remarkably high, and almost completely independent of the business cycle: one out of four workers leaves his/her position each year in the economy at large. In the small firms sector alone turnover is much higher, with total separations almost approaching 50|X% of employment; 2)as the economy takes a downturn, it is mainly the number of jobs created through expansion of existing firms that follows this cycle, while separations remain roughly constant; 3)the proportion of jobs created via the establishment of new firms is modest compared to that attributable to the expansion of existing plants (16.0-14.491)). Likewise, the proportion of job losses due to closures visi vis employment shedding by contracting firms, is of the same order of magnitude; 4)job creation and destruction is very high in the small firm sector. Employment in firms of dimension (0-19) is 25.8 % of total employment at the beginning of the observation period (1978) and reaches 28% at its end (1984). Yet the proportion of job creation attributable to small firms is approximately 60% of the new positions due to expansion of existing firms in manufacturing, and 68% in the services. The fraction of jobs destroyed by small firms is somewhat lower: about 46% in manufacturing and 59% in the services; 5)he small firms contribution to net job creation appears even more remarkable both in the aggregate, as well as within all sectors of economic activity and geographical areas. In 1978-80 net employment change in manufacturing is 106,000 units per year; correspondingly net job creation by firms (0-19) is alone 222,000. In the services the proportion between net employment change and the share of the small firms is 1:3. In 1981-83, while in manufacturing over 213,000 jobs are destroyed on average each year, net creation by small firms is still positive (+ 48,000); in the services the overall change is very small (+ 3,000), while the net contribution of small firms is + 53,000.     

Social investments in the knowledge economy: The politics of inclusive,stratified, and targeted reforms across the globe

As countries transition from industrial to post-industrial knowledge economies, education and skills are crucial. Consequently, policy-makers around the globe have increasingly focused on social investment, that is, policies aiming to create, mobilize, or preserve skills. Yet, countries around the globe have developed social investments to different degrees and in highly different forms. Our goal is twofold: First, we introduce a new typology of social investment policies, distinguishing nine types along two dimensions: three distributive profiles (inclusive, stratified, targeted) and three functions (skill creation, preservation, mobilization). This differentiation allows fine-grained analyses of the causes and consequences of different kinds of social investments, thus offering a perspective to study the relationship between efficiency and inclusiveness in a way that goes beyond the mere discussion how social investment policies grosso modo affect inequalities (‘equalizing’ versus ‘Matthew Effects’). Second, we theorize on the politics of social investment. We argue that the interaction of policy legacies and socioeconomic factors is the main explanation for which functions of social investment policies are introduced, whereas their distributive profiles are crucially shaped by political coalitions. We illustrate with empirical material from democracies around the globe.     

Declining inequality in Latin America? Robustness checks for Peru

The Journal of Economic Inequality - Household surveys underreport incomes from the upper tail of the distribution, affecting our assessment about inequality. This paper offers a tractable...     

Entreprise Management in the USSR: is there a Productivity Drive?*

Abstract. According to some neo-institutional economists, the trade-off of perestroika is between the benefits of solving economic problems via institutional changes and the costs of upsetting the nomenklatura. The “sub-institutional” analysis shows instead a series of organizational adjustments of the productive system that can render this dilemma less pressing, provide Western financial aid increases. This aid will ease the social and political tensions of the transition much more than helping the start of a productivity drive in Soviet firms.