Decision Making Under Risk: A Comparison of Bayesian and Fuzzy Set Methods

A classical decision problem is considered where a decision maker is to choose one of a number of actions each offering different consequences. The outcome from a choice of action is uncertain because it depends on the existing state of Nature. Also, the outcome, once an action and state of Nature are specified, may be a vector or a random vector. The decision maker employs both Bayesian methods and fuzzy set techniques to handle the uncertainties. The decision maker is also allowed to use multiple, possibly conflicting, goals in order to determine his best strategy. The Bayesian method produces a set of undominated strategies to choose from, whereas the fuzzy set technique usually produces a unique optimal strategy.     

Entropy Principles in Decision Making Under Risk

This paper considers decision problems where: (1) The exact probability distribution over the states of nature is not precisely known, but certain prior information is available about the possibilities of these outcomes; (2) A prior distribution over the states of nature is known, but new constraint information about the probabilities becomes available. The maximum entropy principle asserts that the probability distribution with maximum entropy, satisfying the prior knowledge, should be used in the decision problem. The minimum cross-entropy principle says that the posterior distribution is the one which minimizes cross-entropy, subject to the new constraint information. The entropy principles have not gone uncriticized, and this literature, together with that justifying the principles, is surveyed. Both principles are illustrated in a number of situations where the distribution is either discrete or continuous. The discrete distribution case with prior interval estimates based on expert opinions is considered in detail.     

Leader political support: Reconsidering leader political behavior

Historically, organizational politics and political leader behavior have been framed and characterized negatively, as self-serving and counter-productive. However, scholars have noted that political acts can achieve positive ends, and have called for further discussions of positive forms of political leadership. Continuing in this recent stream of research on positive perspectives on organizational politics, a framework of leader political support is proposed, suggesting that the positive features of leader political behavior, and testable propositions are developed. The leader political support construct is defined and its antecedents are explicated utilizing a social capital perspective. Additionally, social exchange theory is used to explain the consequences of leader political support. Contributions to both leadership and organizational politics literatures and directions for future research are discussed.     

The mad estimator: when is it non-linear? applications to two-way design models

The mean absolute deviation (MAD) estimator has recently received a great deal of attention as applied to full-rank linear regression models. This paper provides a necessary and sufficient condition for the MAD estimator to be a non-linear estimator, in which case conditions for the variance of the MAD estimator to be larger or smaller than those for OLS are, in general, unknown. The non-linearity of the MAD estimator is examined for several two-way designs; in particular (1) randomized block design (2) two-way nested design (3) two-way classification with interaction and (4) partially balanced incomplete block design     

REVIEWS

Bigner, J. J., & Wetchler, J. L. (Eds.). (2004). Relationship therapy with same-sex couples .
Cling, B. J. (Ed.). (2004). Sexualized violence against women and children: A psychology and law perspective .
Folberg, J., Milne, A., & Salem, P., (Eds.). (2004). Divorce and family mediation: Models, techniques and applications .
Rholes, S. W., & Simpson, J. A. (Eds.). (2004). Adult attachment: Theory, research and clinical implications .
Sperry, L. (Ed.). (2004). Assessment of couples and families: Contemporary and cutting edge strategies .     

Landscape,vegetation characteristics,and group identity in an urban and suburban watershed: why the 60s matter

As highly managed ecosystems, urban areas should reflect the social characteristics of their managers, who are primarily residents. Since landscape features develop over time, we hypothesize that present-day vegetation should also reflect social characteristics of past residents. Using an urban-to-suburban watershed in the Baltimore Metropolitan Region, this paper examines the relationship between demographics, housing characteristics, and lifestyle clusters from 1960 and 2000 with areas of high woody and herbaceous vegetation cover in 1999. We find that 1960 demographics and age of housing are better predictors of high woody or tree coverage in 1999 than demographics and housing characteristics from 2000. Key variables from 1960 are percent in professional occupations (+), percent of pre-WWI housing (−), percent of post-WWII housing (+), and population density (−). Past and present demographic and housing variables are poor predictors of high herbaceous cover in 1999. Lifestyle clusters for 2000 are very good predictors of high herbaceous coverage in 1999, but lifestyle clusters from 1960 and 2000 are poor predictors of high woody vegetation coverage. These findings suggest that herbaceous or grassy areas, typically lawns, are good reflections of contemporary lifestyle characteristics of residents while neighborhoods with heavy tree canopies have largely inherited the preferred landscapes of past residents and communities. Biological growth time scales of trees and woody vegetation means that such vegetation may outlast the original inhabitants who designed, purchased, and planted them. The landscapes we see today are therefore legacies of past consumption patterns.     

Document Delivery as a Supplement or Replacement for Serial Subscriptions

Abstract

Increasing serials costs and shrinking budgets present challenges for academic libraries to continue providing sufficient access to scholarly articles. Rapid document delivery services can serve as an effective means to fill the gap caused by serials cancellations. This column examines several of the existing document delivery service providers and addresses issues involved in their implementation.     

Screening for Alcohol Problems Among 4-Year Colleges and Universities

Abstract

Objective: To assess the use of alcohol screening tools across US colleges. Participants: Directors of health services at 333 four-year colleges. Methods: An online survey was conducted regarding the use of alcohol screening tools. Schools reporting use of formal tools were further described in terms of 4 tools (AUDIT, CUGE, CAPS, and RAPS) that the authors judged to be the most favorable based on prior empirical comparative studies. Results: Forty-four percent of colleges reported use of at least 1 formal alcohol screening tool and nearly all of these used a tool appropriate for college students. However, less than half of the 44% of colleges that used a screening tool used 1 of the 4 most favorable tools. Conclusions: Continued efforts are needed to encourage colleges to use the most effective available screening tools to identify alcohol-related problems that require intervention among students.     

Access Barriers to Mental Health Services for Older Adults from Diverse Populations: Perspectives of Leaders in Mental Health and Aging

This project is based on the results of telephone surveys with 52 local, state, and national informed respondents including policymakers, county leaders, planners, and advocates in mental health and aging with a particular focus on the states of California and Florida. This article addresses challenges to access to mental health services for diverse older adults including barriers related to race and ethnicity, socioeconomic status, location, age, gender, immigrant status, language, sexual orientation, and diagnosis. The article also highlights broad themes that emerged including (1) the importance of outreach and transportation tailored to diverse elders, and (2) recruitment of diverse staff and training related to diversity. The article concludes with policy and practice recommendations to reduce these disparities in access to mental health services for diverse populations of older adults.