A first look at the 21st Century: Census 2000

This paper examines the initial results from Census 2000. It focuses onpopulation growth and distribution, and the five populationcharacteristics from the 100-percent data: age, sex, Hispanic origin, race, and householdrelationship. It explores emerging trends within an historical and global context.     

The fallacy of the five million women: A re-estimate

Explicit policy to control fertility in the United States to date has focussed on the “unmet need” for contraceptive services in 1966 among an estimated five million poor and near-poor women. This paper reestimates the number of women in need of contraceptive services by disaggregating (on the basis of tabulations from the Current Population Surveys for 1966 and 1967, and the 1965 National Fertility Study) all poor and near-poor women into 54 subgroups differentiated by age, marital status, religion, and color. Data from the 1965 National Fertility Study, and from other studies, are then used to estimate for each subgroup deductions for sterility, pregnancy, waiting time for conception, and negative attitudes toward and current use of contraception. The residual number of women who both want and require contraceptive services, but do not have them, is estimated to be 1.2 million, rather than 4.6 million. The fact that the re-estimate takes into account both existing contraceptive practice and negative attitudes toward family limitation accounts for much of the difference between it and the original figure.     

Income and reproductive motivation

It is often assumed that family size and income would be positively related if unwanted births among the less advantaged were prevented. But this assumption rests on a prior expectation that family-size preferences bear a direct relation to income in modern societies. Data on such reproductive preferences in relation to economic status from 13 studies in the United States dating between 1936 and 1966 do not support the notion of a positive association between reproductive preferences and income. Only when Catholics are considered is there even a U-shaped relation between family-size desires and income. These results cast doubt on the notion that the economic theory of demand for consumer durables is relevant to reproductive motivation. Rather, the data lend credence to the idea that significant non-economic influences associated with prosperity depress family-size desires among the well-to-do. Only if these influences are specifically weakened by a counter-force (such as Catholicism) do wealthier people show a preference for somewhat larger families. In no case, however, are the Catholic/non-Catholic differences in reproductive preference large. Moreover, no economic group, even among non-Catholics, prefers very small families.     

The expansion of religious affiliation: An explanation of the growth of church participation in the United States 1850–1930

This paper focuses on the period in U.S. history that experienced the most rapid rate of increase of church membership—the decades between 1850 and 1930—in order to explain synchronic and diachronic variation in those rates. Using pooled cross-sectional time series analysis, different predictions are derived and tested from theories of secularization/social control, comparative disadvantage, resource mobilization, and pluralism. The effects of spatial diffusion and the momentum of religious tradition also are estimated. Our conclusion is that religious monopoly—not diversity—fuels religious expansion. This finding is bolstered by the complementary result that ethnic homogeneity is also conducive to religious expansion. Together these results highlight the importance for mobilization of religious and ethnocultural dominance in a particular niche.     

POLICY PARADOXES: THE DISEMPOWERMENT OF YOUNG PEOPLE UNDER THE LABOR GOVERNMENT, 1983–91

This paper explores the restructuring of the experience of young people's lives. It examines Federal Labor Government youth and education policy apparently developed as a response to the high levels of youth unemployment in place since 1976–77. It argues that these policies have dramatically altered the experience of being young by creating greater dependence and further disempowerment. It argues that young people have become the objects of punitive exercises that deny them their basic rights, disenfranchise them and extend the socially constructed features of adolescence into early ‘adulthood’.     

The Social Power of Health-Care Practitioners as Agents of Change

This paper examines dominant sources of social power and influence that affect the degree to which patients adhere to recommended regimens for prevention or treatment and their rate of recovery. Referent power of health-care practitioners, as contrasted with their expert, coercive, reward and legitimate power, is expected to be most effective when internalization of medical recommendations by the patients is essential. The paper explores specific ways that a health-care professional can gain referent power, using weight control treatment as an example. It presents a conceptual framework that provides a rationale for a number of relationship-building techniques and offers evidence that referent power is effective in promoting adherence to treatment and more healthful behavior, and in influencing critical outcome measures such as weight loss. Analysis of the relative efficacy of various methods of building and using referent power and the possible limiting conditions on its effectiveness are also discussed.