首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
文章检索
  按 检索   检索词:      
出版年份:   被引次数:   他引次数: 提示:输入*表示无穷大
  收费全文   28909篇
  免费   831篇
  国内免费   1篇
管理学   3974篇
民族学   151篇
人才学   1篇
人口学   2712篇
丛书文集   128篇
教育普及   2篇
理论方法论   2580篇
现状及发展   1篇
综合类   300篇
社会学   14328篇
统计学   5564篇
  2023年   193篇
  2021年   175篇
  2020年   478篇
  2019年   685篇
  2018年   822篇
  2017年   1087篇
  2016年   841篇
  2015年   567篇
  2014年   771篇
  2013年   5131篇
  2012年   1025篇
  2011年   941篇
  2010年   708篇
  2009年   607篇
  2008年   753篇
  2007年   709篇
  2006年   718篇
  2005年   618篇
  2004年   620篇
  2003年   535篇
  2002年   581篇
  2001年   709篇
  2000年   651篇
  1999年   618篇
  1998年   464篇
  1997年   408篇
  1996年   419篇
  1995年   430篇
  1994年   354篇
  1993年   386篇
  1992年   429篇
  1991年   417篇
  1990年   424篇
  1989年   400篇
  1988年   377篇
  1987年   320篇
  1986年   358篇
  1985年   393篇
  1984年   356篇
  1983年   331篇
  1982年   264篇
  1981年   221篇
  1980年   242篇
  1979年   293篇
  1978年   207篇
  1977年   194篇
  1976年   168篇
  1975年   163篇
  1974年   162篇
  1973年   134篇
排序方式: 共有10000条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
191.
SONET (Synchronous Optical NETworks) add-drop multiplexers (ADMs) are the dominant cost factor in the WDM(Wavelength Division Multiplexing)/SONET rings. The number of SONET ADMs required by a set of traffic streams is determined by the routing and wavelength assignment of the traffic streams. Previous works took as input the traffic streams with routings given a priori and developed various heuristics for wavelength assignment to minimize the SONET ADM costs. However, little was known about the performance guarantees of these heuristics. This paper contributes mainly in two aspects. First, in addition to the traffic streams with pre-specified routing, this paper also studies minimizing the ADM requirement by traffic streams without given routings, a problem which is shown to be NP-hard. Several heuristics for integrated routing and wavelength assignment are proposed to minimize the SONET ADM costs. Second, the approximation ratios of those heuristics for wavelength assignment only and those heuristics for integrated routing and wavelength assignment are analyzed. The new Preprocessed Iterative Matching heuristic has the best approximation ratio: at most 3/2.  相似文献   
192.
A distinction is made between the cohesive self and the nuclear self. The latter represents a consolidation of the self that occurs in late adolescence and that results from the integration of life goals and ambitions into a coherent narrative. This paper presents a case in which a pseudo-consolidation appears to have occurred in an adolescent with an undiagnosed learning disability.Ms. Silbar is in private practice.  相似文献   
193.
194.
Summary.  The system for monitoring suicides in Hong Kong has considerable delays in reporting as the cause of death needs to be determined by a coroner's investigation. However, timely estimates of suicide rates are desirable to assist in the formulation of public health policies. This motivated us to develop a non-parametric procedure to estimate the intensity function of a Poisson process in the presence of reporting delays. We give closed form estimators of the Poisson intensity and the delay distribution, conduct simulation studies to evaluate the method proposed and derive their asymptotic properties. The method proposed is applied to estimate the intensity of suicide in Hong Kong.  相似文献   
195.
This article introduces a new model for transaction prices in the presence of market microstructure noise in order to study the properties of the price process on two different time scales, namely, transaction time where prices are sampled with every transaction and tick time where prices are sampled with every price change. Both sampling schemes have been used in the literature on realized variance, but a formal investigation into their properties has been lacking. Our empirical and theoretical results indicate that the return dynamics in transaction time are very different from those in tick time and the choice of sampling scheme can therefore have an important impact on the properties of realized variance. For RV we find that tick time sampling is superior to transaction time sampling in terms of mean-squared-error, especially when the level of noise, number of ticks, or the arrival frequency of efficient price moves is low. Importantly, we show that while the microstructure noise may appear close to IID in transaction time, in tick time it is highly dependent. As a result, bias correction procedures that rely on the noise being independent, can fail in tick time and are better implemented in transaction time.  相似文献   
196.
In Sweden, government-mandated paid parental leave has been available to both mothers and fathers since 1974. By 2006, each parent had two non-transferable leave months and nine additional months to share. From the beginning, parental leave was presented as a policy designed to promote gender equality, with women and men having equal opportunities and responsibilities to contribute economically to the family and care for children. Sweden thus provides a unique setting to explore whether social policy can be an important instrument for changing the gender contract. Analysing survey data from 356 fathers working in large private companies, we found that the amount of parental leave days taken had positive effects on several aspects of fathers’ participation in childcare and on their satisfaction with contact with children, controlling for other factors contributing to fathers’ participation in childcare. Our findings suggest that the full potential of Sweden's parental leave policy for degendering the division of labour for childcare will not likely be met until fathers are strongly encouraged by social policy to take a more equal portion of parental leave.  相似文献   
197.
198.
Ranked set sampling is a sampling approach that leads to improved statistical inference in situations where the units to be sampled can be ranked relative to each other prior to formal measurement. This ranking may be done either by subjective judgment or according to an auxiliary variable, and it need not be completely accurate. In fact, results in the literature have shown that no matter how poor the quality of the ranking, procedures based on ranked set sampling tend to be at least as efficient as procedures based on simple random sampling. However, efforts to quantify the gains in efficiency for ranked set sampling procedures have been hampered by a shortage of available models for imperfect rankings. In this paper, we introduce a new class of models for imperfect rankings, and we provide a rigorous proof that essentially any reasonable model for imperfect rankings is a limit of models in this class. We then describe a specific, easily applied method for selecting an appropriate imperfect rankings model from the class.  相似文献   
199.
The problem of modelling multivariate time series of vehicle counts in traffic networks is considered. It is proposed to use a model called the linear multiregression dynamic model (LMDM). The LMDM is a multivariate Bayesian dynamic model which uses any conditional independence and causal structure across the time series to break down the complex multivariate model into simpler univariate dynamic linear models. The conditional independence and causal structure in the time series can be represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). The DAG not only gives a useful pictorial representation of the multivariate structure, but it is also used to build the LMDM. Therefore, eliciting a DAG which gives a realistic representation of the series is a crucial part of the modelling process. A DAG is elicited for the multivariate time series of hourly vehicle counts at the junction of three major roads in the UK. A flow diagram is introduced to give a pictorial representation of the possible vehicle routes through the network. It is shown how this flow diagram, together with a map of the network, can suggest a DAG for the time series suitable for use with an LMDM.  相似文献   
200.
The training of medical practitioners to improve the practitioner/patient relationship may be difficult, as limitations often exist on the choice of patients included in the study. A specific study of this type of training is given. It is proposed that a simple modification and generalization of Yates' plaid-square designs be used. It is shown that a replicated plaid-design incorporates as a special case the criss-cross or strip-plot design. The usefulness of these designs in studies of the training of medical practitioners is illustrated. The basic characteristics of their analysis are outlined.  相似文献   
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号