HEAVY-TAILED-DISTRIBUTED THRESHOLD STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS IN FINANCIAL TIME SERIES

To capture mean and variance asymmetries and time‐varying volatility in financial time series, we generalize the threshold stochastic volatility (THSV) model and incorporate a heavy‐tailed error distribution. Unlike existing stochastic volatility models, this model simultaneously accounts for uncertainty in the unobserved threshold value and in the time‐delay parameter. Self‐exciting and exogenous threshold variables are considered to investigate the impact of a number of market news variables on volatility changes. Adopting a Bayesian approach, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate all unknown parameters and latent variables. A simulation experiment demonstrates good estimation performance for reasonable sample sizes. In a study of two international financial market indices, we consider two variants of the generalized THSV model, with US market news as the threshold variable. Finally, we compare models using Bayesian forecasting in a value‐at‐risk (VaR) study. The results show that our proposed model can generate more accurate VaR forecasts than can standard models.     

Horwitz's rule, transforming both sides and the design of experiments for mechanistic models

Summary. The paper develops methods for the design of experiments for mechanistic models when the response must be transformed to achieve symmetry and constant variance. The power transformation that is used is partially justified by a rule in analytical chemistry. Because of the nature of the relationship between the response and the mechanistic model, it is necessary to transform both sides of the model. Expressions are given for the parameter sensitivities in the transformed model and examples are given of optimum designs, not only for single-response models, but also for experiments in which multivariate responses are measured and for experiments in which the model is defined by a set of differential equations which cannot be solved analytically. The extension to designs for checking models is discussed.     

Transnational Migration: Bringing Gender In

This article aims to bring gender into an even tighter transnational migration focus by broadening and deepening our original framework of “gendered geographies of power,” linking it more directly to existing and emerging scholarship. We examine and highlight previously neglected areas such as the role of the state and the social imaginary in gendering transnational processes and experiences. We identify topics that remain under‐appreciated, under‐researched, and/or under‐theorized. Finally, we initiate a discussion of how a gendered analysis of transnational migration can help bridge this particular research to other gendered transnational processes under study that do not privilege migration.     

A simple procedure for the selection of significant effects

Summary.  Given a large number of test statistics, a small proportion of which represent departures from the relevant null hypothesis, a simple rule is given for choosing those statistics that are indicative of departure. It is based on fitting by moments a mixture model to the set of test statistics and then deriving an estimated likelihood ratio. Simulation suggests that the procedure has good properties when the departure from an overall null hypothesis is not too small.     

魏晋南北朝的美学思想和盆景艺术

魏晋南北朝是中国古代动乱最多、人民生活最悲惨的时代。战争、动乱使汉王朝“独尊儒术”的旧思想体制大崩溃 ,导致魏晋南北朝时期的古代中国思想最解放、最自由。美学思想和精神的自由 ,酿就了艺术创造精神的勃发 ,因而新的艺术形式、艺术规律应运而生并相互融会贯通。此时的盆景艺术正是在绘画、园林、盆栽、赏石等艺术形式的影响下孕育了自己最初的表现形式和美学规律 ,因此可以说该时期是盆景发展史上的一个重要阶段     

Estimation of Metabolic Rate Constants in PBPK‐Models from Liver Slice Experiments: What Are the Experimental Needs?

A mechanistic model is presented describing the clearance of a compound in a precision-cut liver slice that is incubated in a culture medium. The problem of estimating metabolic rate constants in PBPK models from liver slice experiments is discussed using identifiability analysis. From the identifiability problem analysis, it appears that in addition to the clearance, the compound's free fraction in the slice and the diffusion rate of the exchange of the compound between culture medium and liver slice should be identified. In addition, knowledge of the culture medium volume, the slice volume, the compound's free fraction, and octanol-water-based partition between medium and slice is presupposed. The formal solution for identification is discussed from the perspective of experimental practice. A formally necessary condition for identification is the sampling of parent compound in liver slice or culture medium. However, due to experimental limitations and errors, sampling the parent compound in the slice together with additional sampling of metabolite pooled from the medium and the slice is required for identification in practice. Moreover, it appears that identification results are unreliable when the value of the intrinsic clearance exceeds the value of the diffusion coefficient, a condition to be verified a posteriori.     

THE EFFICACY AND EFFECTIVENESS OF MARITAL AND FAMILY THERAPY: A PERSPECTIVE FROM META-ANALYSIS

This article reviews the major findings from a multiproject meta-analysis of the effects of marital and family therapy (MFT). Across 163 randomized trials, MFT demonstrates moderate, statistically significant, and often clinically significant effects. No orientation is yet demonstrably superior to any other, nor is MFT superior to individual therapy. Cost effectiveness information is scant in these 163 studies, but supportive. Randomized experiments yield very different answers from nonrandomized experimental studies of the effects of MFT, calling into question whether we should mix the two in reviews. We have also found several new differences in the ways that marital therapy (MT) and family therapy (FT) studies are conducted, making them harder to compare. Finally, important questions still exist about whether any psychotherapy, including MFT, yet has sufficient information about how well research generalizes to everyday clinical practice.     

Estimating the Rayleigh distribution scale parameter from doubly censored samples—Some comments

In a recent paper in this journal, Lee, Kapadia and Brock (1980) developed maximum likelihood (ML) methods for estimating the scale parameter of the Rayleigh distribution from doubly censored samples. They reported convergence difficulties in attempting to solve numerically the nonlinear likelihood equation (LE). To mitigate these difficulties, they employed approximations to simplify the LE, but found that the solution of the resulting simplified equation can give rise to parameter estimates of erratic accuracy. We show that the use of approximations to simplify the LE is unnecessary. In fact, under suitable parametric transformation, the log-likelihood function is strictly concave, the ML estimate always exists, is unique and finite. Furthermore, the LE is easy to solve numerically. A numerical example is given to illustrate the computations involved.     

Construction and selection of tightened-normal-tightened sampling inspection scheme of type TNT-(n1, n2; c)

A table is presented for the construction and selection of tightened-normal-tightened sampling scheme of type TNT-(n1, n2;c). Efficiency of TNT-(n1, n2;c) scheme over conventional single and double sampling plans is discussed.