The utility of situational theory of publics for assessing public response to a disaster prediction

The study of public response to disasters is a relatively recent discipline that developed following the passage of the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977. Because earthquake prediction is an inexact science, few formal predictions have been issued, which has limited the opportunity to study public response to predictions. The purpose of this study was to examine the utility of public relations theory, specifically situational theory of publics, for assessing response to the New Madrid earthquake prediction.Situational theory demonstrates that there is not a single, general public for disaster predictions as has been assumed in studies of disaster response. Instead, multiple publics develop in response to a prediction based on how members of those publics view the situation. Contrary to previous findings that believability and personalized risk are correlated constructs, high personalized risk was associated with high constraint recognition regardless of belief in the prediction. Based on the findings, suggestions are proposed for the development of more effective messages for communicating with publics at risk.     

Nadaraya–Watson estimator for I.I.D. paths of diffusion processes

This paper deals with a nonparametric Nadaraya–Watson (NW) estimator of the drift function computed from independent continuous observations of a diffusion process. Risk bounds on the estimator and its discrete-time approximation are established. The paper also deals with extensions of the PCO and leave-one-out cross-validation bandwidth selection methods for our NW estimator. Finally, some numerical experiments are provided.     

Decision-Making and Evidence in Direct Practice

This article presents the results of research designed to explore decision-making by direct practitioners in selected non-profit human service settings. Forty interviews were conducted with workers at front-line, supervisory and higher-management levels. The research questions included; what sources of information are used in decision-making, what variables enhance or impede utilization of evidence-based knowledge in decision-making and what would be important resources for improving availability, access and utilization of evidence-based knowledge in decision-making? Our results indicate that respondents relied most heavily on experience; on their professional values and beliefs, and on an empathic understanding of their clients’ uniqueness. Compared to these sources of information use of research and the professional literature were less enthusiastically endorsed.     

Resistance as a means of creating accountability in child welfare institutions

This paper investigates the identity constructions of youths who are objects of special interventions in the area of child welfare. The aim of the paper was to explore the various dimensions of resistance to institutional identities among youths in special schools and foster‐care institutions. Interviews were conducted with adolescents aged between 12 and 15, identified as having social, emotional and behavioural difficulties. The analysis generates knowledge about society's interventions as well as how adolescents respond to offered institutional identities by adopting different kinds of discursive resistance. The paper highlights the different types of discursive resistance that adolescents use to present themselves as accountable individuals and discusses the importance of considering resistance as a positive force rather than as something that must be defeated.     

Adolescent migration and the 1990s nuptiality transition in Mali

Attempts to explain the rise in women's age at marriage across Africa have focused mainly on determinants in the urban environment, notably women's education and the economic recession. In our study, we examined the migration of adolescent girls as a factor in the transition to a later age of marriage in rural Mali, using an analysis of data from a longitudinal survey conducted over 20 years. The findings show a close correlation between the rise in labour migration and the onset of this nuptiality transition. Continuing changes in marriage patterns include not only its postponement but also a breakdown in the marriage formalization process. Two main mechanisms are documented: a direct one, as migration enables young women to choose the timing of their marriage and is a source of empowerment; and an indirect one, as migration challenges family marriage conventions and contributes to elders disengaging from control over marriage and young people.     

A Risk-Benefit Analysis of French High Fish Consumption: A QALY Approach

The health risk and the nutritional benefit of a food are usually assessed separately. Toxicologists recommend limiting the consumption of certain fish because of methylmercury; while nutritionists recommend eating more oily fish because of omega 3. A common evaluation is imperative to provide coherent recommendations. In order to evaluate the risks along with the benefits related to fish consumption, a common metric based on the quality-adjusted life year (QALY) method has been used. The impact of a theoretical change from a medium n-3 PUFAs intake to a high intake is studied, in terms of the cardiovascular system (CHD mortality, stroke mortality and morbidity) and on fetal neuronal development (IQ loss or gain). This application can be considered as a sensitive analysis of the model used and looks at the impact of changing the dose-response relationships between cardiovascular diseases and n-3 PUFAs intakes. Results show that increasing fish consumption may have a beneficial impact on health. However, the confidence interval of the overall estimation has a negative lower bound, which means that this increase in fish consumption may have a negative impact due to MeHg contamination. Some limits of the QALY approach are identified. The first concerns determination of the dose-response relationships. The second concerns the economic origins of the approach and of individual preferences. Finally, since only one beneficial aspect and one risk element were studied, consideration should be given to how other beneficial and risk components may be integrated in the model.     

Importance of sampling weights in multilevel modeling of international large-scale assessment data

Multilevel modeling is an important tool for analyzing large-scale assessment data. However, the standard multilevel modeling will typically give biased results for such complex survey data. This bias can be eliminated by introducing design weights which must be used carefully as they can affect the results. The aim of this paper is to examine different approaches and to give recommendations concerning handling design weights in multilevel models when analyzing large-scale assessments such as TIMSS (The Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study). To achieve the goal of the paper, we examined real data from two countries and included a simulation study. The analyses in the empirical study showed that using no weights or only level 1 weights sometimes could lead to misleading conclusions. The simulation study only showed small differences in estimation of the weighted and unweighted models when informative design weights were used. The use of unscaled or not rescaled weights however caused significant differences in some parameter estimates.     

Key decisions in child protection services in cases of domestic violence: maintaining services and out‐of‐home placement

This paper looks at the response of the child protection services (CPS) system in cases where exposure to domestic violence occurs alone or together with abuse or neglect, focusing on the factors involved in decisions to maintain the case open for ongoing services or remove children from the home. The study is based on an analysis of clinical and administrative data from the files on children reported to a CPS agency in Montreal, Canada. A total of 1 071 substantiated reports were documented, including 337 cases of co‐occurrence (32%). Analysis of the data shows that domestic violence does not by itself constitute a factor liable to lead to more intrusive intervention. The CPS response appears to be influenced more by the existence of other forms of maltreatment and risk factors. Additionally, while domestic violence may be associated with more severe individual and family problems, it does not influence the decision to keep the case open because the child still need services. The lack of any connection between domestic violence and this decision is a cause for concern, as results indicate that such families need help. Knowing how to respond to their needs therefore remains a major challenge.     

Developing a Research Agenda on Resident-to-Resident Aggression: Recommendations From a Consensus Conference

This article provides an overview of the development of a research agenda on resident-to-resident aggression (RRA) in long-term care facilities by an expert panel of researchers and practitioners. A 1-day consensus-building workshop using a modified Delphi approach was held to gain consensus on nomenclature and an operational definition for RRA, to identify RRA research priorities, and to develop a roadmap for future research on these priorities. Among the six identified terms in the literature, RRA was selected. The top five priorities were: (a) developing/assessing RRA environmental interventions; (b) identification of the environmental factors triggering RRA; (c) incidence/prevalence of RRA; (d) developing/assessing staff RRA education interventions; and (e) identification of RRA perpetrator and victim characteristics. Given the significant harm RRA poses for long-term care residents, this meeting is an important milestone, as it is the first organized effort to mobilize knowledge on this under-studied topic at the research, clinical, and policy levels.