Lessons from stochastic small-area population projections: the case of Waikato subregions in New Zealand

Subnational population projections in New Zealand by means of the conventional deterministic cohort-component method have had a tendency to be conservative: underprojecting fast-growing populations and overprojecting slow-growing ones. In this paper we use a stochastic population projection method as an alternative. We generate population projections for five demographically distinct administrative areas within the Waikato region of New Zealand: Hamilton City, Franklin District, Thames-Coromandel District, Otorohanga District and South Waikato District. The results are compared to official subnational deterministic projections. The accuracy of subnational population projections in New Zealand is strongly affected by the instability of migration as a component of population change. Differently from the standard cohort-component method, in which net migration levels are projected, the key parameters of our method are age-gender-area specific probabilistic net migration rates. Generally, the identified and modelled uncertainty makes the traditional ‘mid-range’ scenario of subnational deterministic projections of limited use for policy analysis or planning beyond a relatively short projection horizon. We find that the projected range of rates of population growth is wider for smaller regions and/or regions more strongly affected by net migration. Directions for further development of the methodology are suggested.     

Hidden Markov chains in generalized linear models

We show how the concept of hidden Markov model may be accommodated in a setting involving multiple sequences of observations. The resulting class of models allows for both interrelationships between different sequences and serial dependence within sequences. Missing values in the observation sequences may be handled in a straightforward manner. We also examine a group of methods, based upon the observed Fisher Information matrix, for estimating the covariance matrix of the parameter estimates. We illustrate the methods with both real and simulated data sets.     

Risk analysis and investment appraisal in marketing

The author is employed in Pharmaceutical Development and is concerned with the introduction of methods designed to integrate new products and technologies with the often conflicting objectives of production, marketing, and finance.

This article outlines an approach to quantifying risk in investment appraisal and considers a marketing project although the technique has been used to appraise plant investment associated with uncertain technology and sales forecasts and also to investigate the optimal participation and financing for joint venture proposals. In addition, it is suggested that the organization of investment appraisal work may be more important than the techniques employed.     

The nature and effectiveness of program models for adolescents at risk of entering the formal child protection system

This article compares rationales and outcome research for five areas of programming for adolescents: adolescent competence and skill development programs, family- and parent-focused programs, social integration programs, multiple component programs, and neighborhood transformation programs. The article examines program evidence for maltreated teens as well as teens coping with a variety of other challenges. The study uses a framework based on common developmental challenges and risk factors for adolescents to select and review programs.     

Screening for recommended antenatal risk factors: How long does it take?

Background

Detection and management of antenatal risk factors is critical for quality care.

On weighted composite scores for early Alzheimer's trials

Recent research on finding appropriate composite endpoints for preclinical Alzheimer's disease has focused considerable effort on finding “optimized” weights in the construction of a weighted composite score. In this paper, several proposed methods are reviewed. Our results indicate no evidence that these methods will increase the power of the test statistics, and some of these weights will introduce biases to the study. Our recommendation is to focus on identifying more sensitive items from clinical practice and appropriate statistical analyses of a large Alzheimer's data set. Once a set of items has been selected, there is no evidence that adding weights will generate more sensitive composite endpoints.     

Efficacy of interventions targeting alcohol,drug and smoking behaviors in university and college students: A review of randomized controlled trials

Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of interventions targeting alcohol consumption, drug use and smoking for college/university students.Participants: College/University students.Methods: Studies were eligible if: (1)included students attending universities/colleges; (2)implemented in a university/college setting; (3)aimed to improve at least one of the following behaviors: alcohol and/or drug use and/or smoking; (4)were RCTs. The effect of the interventions on behaviors was determined by the percentage of studies that reported an effect. Due to the heterogeneity of outcomes meta-analysis was not conducted.Results: 88 studies met criteria. University-based interventions were effective for reducing alcohol-related outcomes (drinking patterns, BAC, consequences, problem drinking). Inconsistent findings for drug and smoking were observed.Conclusions: University-based interventions have the potential to improve health for students. While there is a breadth of research examining the efficacy of interventions to reduce alcohol consumption, further research is needed to determine the best approach for addressing smoking and drug use among students.     

The estimation of a corporate crisis communication

This experimental study found a main effect of perceived leadership and an interaction effect of perceived leadership and perceived severity of threats on the public's estimation of organizational crisis responses. The results indicate that the contingent theoretical argument explaining the dynamics of organizational factors and situational factors that determine stance taken by public relations practices can also be applied when explaining the outside latent public's thought patterns predicting an organizational stance and message strategy. Contingency theory offers predictive power, not just for the practitioner, but for the public passing judgment on the stance taken by an organization.