Intention or Attention Before Pointing: Do Infants’ Early Holdout Gestures Reflect Evidence of a Declarative Motive?

Gestures are the first signs of intentional communication within prelinguistic infants and can reflect various motives, including a declarative motive to share attention and interest. The ability to use gestures declaratively has been linked to later language development; therefore, it is important to understand the origins of this motive. Previous research has focused on the use of declarative pointing at around 12 months; however, other potential forms of declarative communication, such as holdout gestures, are yet to be studied in detail. The purpose of this study was to examine whether from 10 months, infants use holdouts declaratively. We elicited holdouts from 36 infants and then reacted to these gestures in four different conditions: (1) joint attention: shared interest; (2) infant attention: attended to infant; (3) toy attention: attended to toy; (4) ignore: gesture was not attended to. Infants’ behavioral responses were recorded. When the experimenter engaged in joint attention, infants were significantly more likely to display a positive attitude and produced fewer re‐engagement attempts. In contrast, the three non‐joint attention conditions displayed significantly higher negative attitudes and attempts to re‐engage the experimenter. We conclude that infants display declarative communication prior to 12 months, resetting the age at which these more complex skills emerge.     

Lessons from stochastic small-area population projections: the case of Waikato subregions in New Zealand

Subnational population projections in New Zealand by means of the conventional deterministic cohort-component method have had a tendency to be conservative: underprojecting fast-growing populations and overprojecting slow-growing ones. In this paper we use a stochastic population projection method as an alternative. We generate population projections for five demographically distinct administrative areas within the Waikato region of New Zealand: Hamilton City, Franklin District, Thames-Coromandel District, Otorohanga District and South Waikato District. The results are compared to official subnational deterministic projections. The accuracy of subnational population projections in New Zealand is strongly affected by the instability of migration as a component of population change. Differently from the standard cohort-component method, in which net migration levels are projected, the key parameters of our method are age-gender-area specific probabilistic net migration rates. Generally, the identified and modelled uncertainty makes the traditional ‘mid-range’ scenario of subnational deterministic projections of limited use for policy analysis or planning beyond a relatively short projection horizon. We find that the projected range of rates of population growth is wider for smaller regions and/or regions more strongly affected by net migration. Directions for further development of the methodology are suggested.     

Summarizing Risk Using Risk Measures and Risk Indices

Our society is fascinated with risk in many different areas and disciplines. One of the main ways to describe and communicate the level of risk is through risk indices, which summarize risk using numbers or categories such as words, letters, or colors. These indices are used to communicate risks to the public, understand how risk is changing over time, compare among different risks, and support decision making. Given the different methods to construct risk indices, including flawed methods such as risk matrices, this article develops specific steps that analysts can follow to create a risk index. This article emphasizes the importance of describing risk with a probability distribution, developing a numerical risk measure that summarizes the probability distribution, and finally translating the risk measure to an index. Measuring the risk is the most difficult part and requires the analyst to summarize a probability distribution into one or possibly a few numbers. The risk measure can then be transformed to a numerical or categorical index. I apply the method outlined in this article to construct a risk index that compares the risk of fatalities in aviation and highway transportation.     

A Note on Maritally-Disrupted Men’s Reports of Child Support in the June 1980 Current Population Survey

Data from the June 1980 Current Population Survey on fathers’ reported provision offinancial support to children from previous marriages living elsewhere is compared to previously published tabulations from the April 1979 CPS of women’s receipt of child support payments. The comparison indicates that the number of men with children from previous marriages living elsewhere is substantially underreported in the June 1980 CPS. Because of the apparent underreporting, the data on the provision of financial support should be interpreted with caution.     

Stormwater basins of the New Jersey coastal plain: Subsidies or sinks for frogs and toads?

Stormwater basins are commonly employed structures designed to mitigate the negative effects of urban runoff. They are ubiquitous in the urbanized landscape; yet the effect of these basins on anurans has only recently been addressed. Stormwater basins have the potential to influence the breeding distribution of anurans by being sources for some species and sinks for others. Our study aims to determine which species benefit from the existence of stormwater basins, which species are negatively impacted, and what variables are the best predictors of these effects. We monitored thirty-six permanently-ponded basins in southern New Jersey for the presence of anuran larvae and calling males by aural surveys, dip-netting and trapping. We assessed fish presence by interviews, visual encounters, dip-netting, and traps. We divided near shore buffer areas into impervious surface and managed or unmanaged categories for both grass and woody vegetation. Two connectivity metrics, distance to canopied corridor and percent of undeveloped upland were analyzed with ArcGIS. Fish were detected in 92% of the basins. Resistance to fish predation distinguished successful species, those with larvae present, from unsuccessful species, those with calling activity but no larval presence. Connectivity to and availability of terrestrial habitat were significant predictors of the breeding species richness at the basins. Number of calling species increased as access to and amount of terrestrial habitat increased. Therefore, design, management, and placement of permanently-ponded basins can impact anuran communities. Additionally, as wet basins are sources for Rana catesbeiana, where bullfrogs are invasive, basins will likely increase propagule pressure.     

Child fatality review teams: a content analysis of social policy

Child fatality review teams (CFRTs) have existed since the 1970s; yet, a comprehensive understanding of their procedures, practices, and outcomes is lacking. This article addresses that gap in this study of CFRT state statutes. Findings indicate CFRT laws address nine areas of practice, from team composition, to purpose, to outcomes. Results also indicate that laws address prevention three times as often as investigation, but that both areas are related to state crime rates.     

Surviving grief: An analysis of the exchange of hope in online grief communities

Online grief communities represent relatively new forms of peer support. However, the degree to which they are helpful for individual grieving processes is unknown. To date, no research has evaluated the type or quality of support exchanged in online grief communities. To begin to address these questions, this study analyzed 564 messages from internet grief websites to: (1) classify the type of helping skills used, and (2) extract themes contained in the content of the messages. Messages selected for analysis were the first response to an original post, assuming they would be the first effort to provide support to a grieving individual. Results revealed a majority of responses contained self-disclosure. Themes in the messages suggested provision of more than "one-way" support; messages themes also included exchanging hope for the future by sharing one's own story, validating the grief experience, providing resources, and exchanging psychosocial support. Clinical implications and research recommendations are discussed.     

Environmental Justice Grantmaking: Elites and Activists Collaborate to Transform Philanthropy

The rise of environmental justice activism since the 1980s provides an exceptional opportunity to study the relations between a grassroots movement and philanthropic foundations. I utilize archival documents and interviews with activists and funders to pose two guiding questions. One, to what degree has the environmental justice movement gained access to foundations? Two, to what degree does this movement maintain self‐determination in its relations with foundations? This paper shows that the movement successfully established connections with a few key foundations. I also show how environmental justice grantee organizations maneuvered around some of the foundation‐related constraints that might otherwise present very real threats to their self‐determination. This analysis builds on, but also goes beyond, the channeling and co‐optation literatures that emphasize the potentially negative influence of foundation funding on grantees. It also contributes to the newly developing social relations perspective which conceptualizes social movement philanthropy as a relationship that is mediated by many factors (for instance, the political orientation of the funder and grantee, among others).