Hidden Markov chains in generalized linear models

We show how the concept of hidden Markov model may be accommodated in a setting involving multiple sequences of observations. The resulting class of models allows for both interrelationships between different sequences and serial dependence within sequences. Missing values in the observation sequences may be handled in a straightforward manner. We also examine a group of methods, based upon the observed Fisher Information matrix, for estimating the covariance matrix of the parameter estimates. We illustrate the methods with both real and simulated data sets.     

The politics of concepts: family and its (putative) replacements

The central concern of this paper is that there has been a move within British sociology to subsume (or sometimes, even replace) the concept of ‘family’ within ideas about personal life, intimacy and kinship. It calls attention to what will be lost sight of by this conceptual move: an understanding of the collective whole beyond the aggregation of individuals; the creation of lacunae that will be (partially) filled by other disciplines; and engagement with policy developments and professional practices that focus on ‘family’ as a core, institutionalized, idea. While repudiating the necessity (and indeed, pointing out the dangers) of providing any definitive answer to definitions of ‘family’, the paper calls for critical reflection on the implications of these conceptual moves.     

Public health research – multidisciplinary,high-benefit,undervalued

The major health problems faced by policy-makers and practitioners at national and local levels require public health approaches. However, public health research is the “poor relative” of biomedical research: it is worthy, but not rich. In the European Commission's health research programme, biomedicine gets 90% of the funding, whereas public health research gets less than 10%. This pattern is repeated nationally in most countries, reflecting public policies to support industries – pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices – where profits are to be made, rather than not-for-profit, public health research. SPHERE, a study coordinated through the European Public Health Association, conducted bibliometric analyses across public health research themes and mapped the European and national structures and priorities for research. Whilst most European countries have national strategies (and some programmes) for public health, few have public health research strategies and the coordination of public health research is weak. Three further studies are being undertaken. In STEPS, the contribution of civil society organizations in the new EU member states to public health research will be discussed at national workshops with the ministries of health, the science/research councils and the national public health associations. In PHIRE, thematic Sections and the national member associations together evaluate the impact of European-funded health projects within member states. In FAHRE, the specific theme of food and health will be addressed, bridging industry and non-profit research sectors. Arguments for public health research can be made through lobbying at European level, but researchers and practitioners also need to influence the development of public health research within individual countries – leading to a European Public Health Research Area.     

Risk analysis and investment appraisal in marketing

The author is employed in Pharmaceutical Development and is concerned with the introduction of methods designed to integrate new products and technologies with the often conflicting objectives of production, marketing, and finance.

This article outlines an approach to quantifying risk in investment appraisal and considers a marketing project although the technique has been used to appraise plant investment associated with uncertain technology and sales forecasts and also to investigate the optimal participation and financing for joint venture proposals. In addition, it is suggested that the organization of investment appraisal work may be more important than the techniques employed.     

Interviewing strategies with sexually abusive youth

Adolescents who have sexually abused may pose a serious problem for both the community and the treatment provider concerning the management of risk and the application of effective intervention strategies. Fundamental to providing good clinical treatment is an assessment that results in an individualized treatment plan specifically tailored to the young person's needs. An integral but often overlooked part of this involves interviewing clients in a way that elicits accurate information and facilitates the development of a therapeutic relationship upon which effective therapy can be undertaken. This article will describe interviewing strategies and highlight the importance of the client-therapist relationship in providing effective therapeutic interventions.     

The nature and effectiveness of program models for adolescents at risk of entering the formal child protection system

This article compares rationales and outcome research for five areas of programming for adolescents: adolescent competence and skill development programs, family- and parent-focused programs, social integration programs, multiple component programs, and neighborhood transformation programs. The article examines program evidence for maltreated teens as well as teens coping with a variety of other challenges. The study uses a framework based on common developmental challenges and risk factors for adolescents to select and review programs.     

Screening for recommended antenatal risk factors: How long does it take?

Background

Detection and management of antenatal risk factors is critical for quality care.

The links between women’s employment and children at home: Variations in low- and middle-income countries by world region

As fertility declines in low- and middle-income countries, the time women devote to childbearing and rearing may also be reduced. This shift has been described as one of the positive consequences of the demographic transition, as it opens opportunities for women to pursue educational and employment opportunities that were previously constrained by the demands of bearing and raising children. We estimate the numbers of children residing at home (with their mother) for women in 58 countries in Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. We then examine the association between women’s employment and having children at home. Finally, we assess trends over recent decades in the relationship between employment and childbearing, and differences in this relationship by mother’s occupation. We find a negative association between women’s employment and having children at home; this association varies substantially by world region, age of child, and mother’s occupation.