Jamaica,Three Years Later: Effects of Intensified Pro-Gay Activism on Severe Prejudice Against Lesbians and Gay Men

Jamaica has developed an international reputation for severe anti-gay prejudice. However, in the past few years, between 2012 and 2015, intensified waves of activism have increased the visibility of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) Jamaicans, and supported their social and legal inclusion in Jamaican society. This research investigated the effects of that activism by taking advantage of two large, representative surveys of Jamaicans’ attitudes toward lesbians and gay men: one in 2012 and one in 2015. Over the three-year period there were significant reductions in desire for social distance and opposition to gay rights. However, there was no significant change in anti-gay attitudes, and there was evidence of an increase in anti-gay behaviors. There was also no evidence of polarization of responses to gay men and lesbians; rather, the most prejudiced Jamaicans showed the largest reductions in bias. Implications of these findings for activism in Jamaica and other anti-gay countries are discussed.     

Cash Transfers and Children's Education and Labour among Malawi's Poor

This article examines the impact on children's education and labour of monthly cash grants targeted on ultra‐poor households and designed to reduce poverty and enable families to invest in human development. It conducts a randomised community trial, with baseline and endline surveys of intervention and control households; verifies school enrolment; and completes key‐informant interviews and focus‐group discussions. Compared with non‐beneficiaries, intervention children experienced a 5 percentage point difference in enrolment, higher educational expenditures, fewer absences, and a 10 percentage point decrease in labour outside the home. Qualitative data confirm the quantitative findings. Transfers to poor households had a positive impact. However, the Malawian educational system needs to be improved for short‐term impacts to lead to long‐term development in human capital.     

Population structure and correlation between auxiliary and target variables may affect precision of estimates in forest inventory

Simulations of forest inventory in several populations compared simple random with “quick probability proportional to size” (QPPS) sampling. The latter may be applied in the absence of a list sampling frame and/or prior measurement of the auxiliary variable. The correlation between the auxiliary and target variables required to render QPPS sampling more efficient than simple random sampling varied over the range 0.3–0.6 and was lower when sampling from populations that were skewed to the right. Two possible analytical estimators of the standard error of the estimate of the mean for QPPS sampling were found to be less reliable than bootstrapping.     

Does Contact Matter?: The Relative Importance of Contact in Predicting Anti-Gay Prejudice in Jamaica

ABSTRACT

Jamaica has been called one of the world’s most anti-gay countries. However, little empirical research has investigated methods of reducing this prejudice. Intergroup contact—(positive) interaction with someone from a different social group—is one of the most widely tested and strongly favored methods of reducing prejudice. However, the role of contact in this specific context is not clear, particularly the relative importance of contact compared to other variables that predict (less) prejudice. This current cross-sectional research investigated that question using a large, representative sample of Jamaican participants (N = 942). As in prior research, contact predicted less anti-gay prejudice, and the (negative) relationship between contact and anti-gay behaviors was mediated by intergroup anxiety and attitudes, even when other important predictors were taken into account. However, contact was a less important predictor than gender, education, or religiosity. Implications for intergroup contact and prejudice-reduction strategies in Jamaica are discussed.     

Not Even a Day in the Life

Qualitative Sociology -     

Model Selection and Estimation with Quantal‐Response Data in Benchmark Risk Assessment

This article describes several approaches for estimating the benchmark dose (BMD) in a risk assessment study with quantal dose‐response data and when there are competing model classes for the dose‐response function. Strategies involving a two‐step approach, a model‐averaging approach, a focused‐inference approach, and a nonparametric approach based on a PAVA‐based estimator of the dose‐response function are described and compared. Attention is raised to the perils involved in data “double‐dipping” and the need to adjust for the model‐selection stage in the estimation procedure. Simulation results are presented comparing the performance of five model selectors and eight BMD estimators. An illustration using a real quantal‐response data set from a carcinogenecity study is provided.     

Evaluating Potential Distribution of High‐Risk Aquatic Invasive Species in the Water Garden and Aquarium Trade at a Global Scale Based on Current Established Populations

Aquatic non‐native invasive species are commonly traded in the worldwide water garden and aquarium markets, and some of these species pose major threats to the economy, the environment, and human health. Understanding the potential suitable habitat for these species at a global scale and at regional scales can inform risk assessments and predict future potential establishment. Typically, global habitat suitability models are fit for freshwater species with only climate variables, which provides little information about suitable terrestrial conditions for aquatic species. Remotely sensed data including topography and land cover data have the potential to improve our understanding of suitable habitat for aquatic species. In this study, we fit species distribution models using five different model algorithms for three non‐native aquatic invasive species with bioclimatic, topographic, and remotely sensed covariates to evaluate potential suitable habitat beyond simple climate matches. The species examined included a frog (Xenopus laevis), toad (Bombina orientalis), and snail (Pomacea spp.). Using a unique modeling approach for each species including background point selection based on known established populations resulted in robust ensemble habitat suitability models. All models for all species had test area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values greater than 0.70 and percent correctly classified values greater than 0.65. Importantly, we employed multivariate environmental similarity surface maps to evaluate potential extrapolation beyond observed conditions when applying models globally. These global models provide necessary forecasts of where these aquatic invasive species have the potential for establishment outside their native range, a key component in risk analyses.