Model Selection and Estimation with Quantal‐Response Data in Benchmark Risk Assessment

This article describes several approaches for estimating the benchmark dose (BMD) in a risk assessment study with quantal dose‐response data and when there are competing model classes for the dose‐response function. Strategies involving a two‐step approach, a model‐averaging approach, a focused‐inference approach, and a nonparametric approach based on a PAVA‐based estimator of the dose‐response function are described and compared. Attention is raised to the perils involved in data “double‐dipping” and the need to adjust for the model‐selection stage in the estimation procedure. Simulation results are presented comparing the performance of five model selectors and eight BMD estimators. An illustration using a real quantal‐response data set from a carcinogenecity study is provided.     

Multichannel electroencephalographic analyses via dynamic regression models with time-varying lag–lead structure

Multiple time series of scalp electrical potential activity are generated routinely in electroencephalographic (EEG) studies. Such recordings provide important non-invasive data about brain function in human neuropsychiatric disorders. Analyses of EEG traces aim to isolate characteristics of their spatiotemporal dynamics that may be useful in diagnosis, or may improve the understanding of the underlying neurophysiology or may improve treatment through identifying predictors and indicators of clinical outcomes. We discuss the development and application of non-stationary time series models for multiple EEG series generated from individual subjects in a clinical neuropsychiatric setting. The subjects are depressed patients experiencing generalized tonic–clonic seizures elicited by electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) as antidepressant treatment. Two varieties of models—dynamic latent factor models and dynamic regression models—are introduced and studied. We discuss model motivation and form, and aspects of statistical analysis including parameter identifiability, posterior inference and implementation of these models via Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. In an application to the analysis of a typical set of 19 EEG series recorded during an ECT seizure at different locations over a patient's scalp, these models reveal time-varying features across the series that are strongly related to the placement of the electrodes. We illustrate various model outputs, the exploration of such time-varying spatial structure and its relevance in the ECT study, and in basic EEG research in general.     

Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models and Portfolio Allocation

We discuss the development of dynamic factor models for multivariate financial time series, and the incorporation of stochastic volatility components for latent factor processes. Bayesian inference and computation is developed and explored in a study of the dynamic factor structure of daily spot exchange rates for a selection of international currencies. The models are direct generalizations of univariate stochastic volatility models and represent specific varieties of models recently discussed in the growing multivariate stochastic volatility literature. We discuss model fitting based on retrospective data and sequential analysis for forward filtering and short-term forecasting. Analyses are compared with results from the much simpler method of dynamic variance-matrix discounting that, for over a decade, has been a standard approach in applied financial econometrics. We study these models in analysis, forecasting, and sequential portfolio allocation for a selected set of international exchange-rate-return time series. Our goals are to understand a range of modeling questions arising in using these factor models and to explore empirical performance in portfolio construction relative to discount approaches. We report on our experiences and conclude with comments about the practical utility of structured factor models and on future potential model extensions.     

Go,Team! Using Teams to Manage Electronic Resources

The increasing prevalence of ejournals in library collections has impacted many aspects of library operations. Libraries have had to rethink workflows, processes, staffing needs, and other factors to account for the differences between print and online journals. The management of ejournals can often cross departmental boundaries and bring into question current workflow. To address the changing landscape of journal management, the University at Albany Libraries developed two teams: one to implement batchloading ejournal records and a second to address ongoing management and related policies. As a result of using a team approach for these responsibilities, the University Libraries was able to streamline processes, reduce duplication of effort across departments, coordinate policies and procedures, improve communication, and develop best practices.     

建设海峡西岸社会主义新农村的战略定位

从把握中央精神实质、反思国内外农村发展经验和融入海峡西岸经济区建设全局等3个方面分析探讨了海峡西岸社会主义新农村建设的战略定位问题。认为,准确定位要根据中央的精神实质,把握好世界现代化发展过程城乡演变的基本规律和我国城乡发展的特殊性、全国的共性和海峡西岸经济区的特点及其建设全局和新农村建设的关系,从海峡西岸经济区建设全局和持续发展的高度处理好新农村建设与加快工业化和城镇化发展的矛盾,加大外力推动促进内源发展,建立新型的城乡关系,促进农村经济与社会的综合发展,增进农民福祉。     

建设海峡西岸社会主义新农村的价值选择

建设社会主义新农村,本质是要缩小城乡差距,使农村在加速工业化、城市化的过程中能够与城市共同协调发展,使农民与城市居民一样享受等值不同质的现代生活。以等值不同质为取向增进农民福祉,是海峡西岸社会主义新农村建设的出发点和落脚点。建设海峡西岸社会主义新农村,要树立大资源观,以增量资源为杠杆激活存量资源,构建平等、互动、共福的新型城乡关系。     

Self-neglect: Implications for prosecutors

Historically, the view of elder mistreatment in the United States has been similar to that of child abuse and has been detrimental to the understanding of elder mistreatment. Until recently, there was little understanding of the complexity of elder mistreatment and the legal system lacked appropriate laws with which to handle this growing problem. Over the last two decades, legislation, laws, and criminal codes of conduct have been developed to tackle the problem of elder mistreatment. However, little knowledge or understanding of the public health problems and legal implications related to the most common form of elder mistreatment referred to Adult Protective Services (APS), elder self-neglect, is available. The growth of this national problem has expanded the role of the legal system and pushed the development of interdisciplinary research with the intent of defining and understanding the problem of self-neglect and with the ultimate goal of expanding intervention strategies. The Consortium for Research in Elder Self-Neglect of Texas (CREST) is the leader in this field and the pilot study suggests numerous medical and legal implications for both intervention and future research.