POPAN-6: Exploring convergence and estimate properties with SIMULATE

We describe some developments in the P OPAN system for the analysis of mark-recapture data from Jolly-Seber (JS) type experiments. The latest version, P OPAN-6, adopts the Design Matrix approach for specifying constraints and then uses it in the constrained maximization of the likelihood. We describe how this is done and the difference it makes to convergence and parameter identifiability over the constraint contrast-equation methods used in P OPAN-5. Then we show how the SIMULATE capabilities of P OPAN can be used to explore the properties of estimates, including their identifiability, precision, and robustness to model misspecification or capture heterogeneity.     

Social Capital as Process: The Meanings and Problems of a Theoretical Metaphor

In this study, we suggest that the difficulty in defining, locating, and measuring social capital is at core a philosophical confusion of language, and not just a consequence of excessively wide application. The term "capital" refers to resources for investment. Financial capital consists of specific quantities of assets. Human capital, a metaphorical extension of financial capital, also consists of specific quantities of assets, in the form of skills or credentials. However, social capital, a third metaphorical construction, does not consist of resources that are held by individuals or by groups but of processes of social interaction leading to constructive outcomes. Therefore, we argue, social capital is not located at any one level of analysis: it emerges across levels of analysis. The confusion over the meaning of this term, then, is a consequence of a metaphorical confusion of a substantive quantity (capital) and a process that takes place through stages (embedded, goal-directed social relations). Locating and defining social capital is further complicated by the variability, contextuality, and conditionality of the process. Stages of social relations that lead to constructive outcomes for one group of people or in one situation may not lead to constructive outcomes for another group or in another situation. To illustrate empirically how social capital may be thought of as a process consisting of stages and to demonstrate why the concept is inherently problematic, we employ data from the 1995 interviews of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). These data enable us to examine connections among the stages of the social capital process found in the literature and to look at predictors of academic achievement, a central topic in research on this topic.     

Migration,Precarization and the Democratic Deficit in Global Governance

This article attempts to provide a critical understanding of the dual signification of “precarity”. It explores what “precarity” as a concept may potentially offer to studies of the changing contemporary political economy of migration. It discusses shifting trends in global migration and point to tendencies for a possible convergence between “South” and “North”, “East” and “West”. Based on a review of current advances in research, it discusses, with reference to the classical work of Karl Polanyi, the potential for a contemporary “countermovement” which would challenge the precarity of migrants. Bringing forward the issue of the “space for civil society” the article addresses a still lingering democratic deficit in the global governance of migration.

Policy Implications

The article is relevant to policymakers, trade unions and civil society organizations. It contributes to the understanding of policy making processes in emerging multilevel global governance and focuses on issues of precarization, migration, and the implementation and accountability of human, migrant and labour rights.     

请再说一遍“我爱你”

【正】请说了一遍,再向我说一遍,说"我爱你"即使那样一遍遍重复,你会把它看成一支"布谷鸟的歌曲";可是记着,在那青山和绿林间,那山谷和田野中,纵使清新的春天披着全身绿装降临、也不算完美无缺,要是她缺少了那串布谷鸟的音节。爱,四周那么黑暗,耳边只听见惊悸的心声,处于那痛苦的不安中,我嚷道:"再说一遍:我爱你!"谁嫌太多的...     

Toward a ‘paideia of the soul’: education to enrich America’s multicultural democracy

What role might education play in the reinvigoration of a robust American democracy? We argue that common understandings of democracy, citizenship, and democratic education are too anemic to right the political inequalities and stagnancies that have deadened American democracy. Instead, we look to notions of paideia and an educated, enlightened citizenry to shape a multicultural democratic education. Multicultural democratic education cultivates the full and flourishing lives and minds of all citizens in American democracy rather than focusing on narrow preparation for voting. It does this through the practice of critical and authentic caring, the cultivation of community across difference, the connection to a global context, and the opportunity for social action. Most importantly, multicultural democratic education takes as its starting point equity and justice in a pluralistic society by committing to the cultivation of the minds and intellects of all students – in stark contrast to the unequal and mind-numbing education that most marginalized and minority students receive.     

Mapping the Timing,Pace, and Scale of the Fertility Transition in Brazil

Between 1960 and 2000, fertility fell sharply in Brazil, but this transition was unevenly distributed in space and time. Using Bayesian spatial statistical methods and microdata from five censuses, we develop and apply a procedure for fitting logistic curves to the fertility transitions in more than 500 small regions of Brazil over this 40‐year period. Doing so enables us to map the main features of the Brazilian fertility transition in considerable detail. We detect early declines in some regions of the country and document large differences between early and late transitions in regard to both the initial level of fertility and the speed of the transition. We also use our results to test hypotheses regarding changes in the level of development at the onset of the fertility transition and identify a temporary stall in the Brazilian transition that occurred in the late 1990s. A web site with project details is at http://schmert.net/BayesLogistic .     

Comparison of some common ratio estimators using pitman measure of nearness

In this article we compare some common ratio estimators for estimating the population total of a given characteristic. The sampling schemes considered are simple random sampling (S.R.S.) and S.R.S.under stratification. The comparisons are made using the Pitman Nearness criterion under the model-based approach. The error term is assumed normal with mean zero and variance σg(x). The function g(x) is a known function of the auxiliary variable x. Special interest is on the cases of g(x) =l and x. The result is found the same as that using MSE criterion, although the PN is very different from the MSE intrinsically.