The Social Benefits of Expedited Risk Assessments

The present regulation of carcinogens is quite slow; hundreds of substances that have tested positive for carcinogenicity in animal bioassays have not been addressed by the U.S. regulatory system. This carries with it unappreciated social, economic, and public health costs. However, there are readily available expedited approximation procedures for assessing the potency of carcinogens whose use has substantial benefits that outweigh any costs from less science-intensive and less extensively documented assessments. These benefits can be seen by using a model to suggest the magnitude of social costs in regulating carcinogens by current conventional methods compared with expedited procedures for assessing the potency of known carcinogens. Two scenarios, one in accordance with current agency presumptions and one which assumes extreme unreliability in animal data and in the accuracy of potency assessments, compare conventional science-intensive and expedited procedures. On both, the total social costs of expedited procedures are lower than conventional procedures across a wide range of values assigned for individual mistakes of under regulation and over regulation. It appears better to evaluate a larger universe of known carcinogens somewhat less intensively for each substance than to evaluate a small proportion of that same universe very carefully and delay considering the rest.     

Unemployment induced adaptations: Relationships among economic responses and individual and marital well-being

This study explores the impact of consumption changes, implemented during unemployment, on perceived economic, marital, and emotional functioning of 34 husbands and 34 wives. Questionnaires completed at the onset of unemployment assessed initial level of perceived functioning. Questionnaires completed one year later assessed the level of functioning in three areas and the extent to which seven categories of consumption changes were implemented. Multivariate analyses determined that credit use and income raising are significant predictors of economic satisfaction. Changes in income raising, credit use, planning, and store choice are significant predictors of marital adjustment. None of the changes predict depression.This research was supported by Arizona Research Station Project #174509-R-07-64 and is part of the Agriculture Experiment Station Project W-167 titled, Coping With Stress: Adaptation of Nonmetropolitan Families to Socioeconomic Changes.Mari S. Wilhelm is assistant professor and Carl A. Ridley is professor in the School of Family and Consumer Resources at the University of Arizona Tucson Arizona 85721 Dr. Wilhelm is presently conducting research in the areas of family financial stress and family financial decision-making. Dr. Wilhelm received her Ph.D. from Michigan State. Dr. Ridley, who received his Ph.D. from Florida State, is conducting research on conflict management behavior in marriage.     

The influence of partners on parental stress of neglectful mothers

This study aims to test the existence of a specific pattern of maternal perception of partners' participation: that is mothers in neglectful families perceive their partners as (1) less satisfying as a marital partner, (2) more violent, (3) less supporting, and (4) having a less positive relationship with the target child than mothers in low-educated, low socioeconomic but non-maltreating families. The study also aims to estimate the link between this pattern of maternal perception of partners' participation and the level of parental stress of the mothers. The total sample is composed of 48 two-parent families with a target child aged 0–6 years old. Half of the families received treatment by the child protection services for child neglect and the other half were non-maltreating families paired with the neglectful families on sociodemographic variables. The data partially support the first hypothesis: compared to men in non-maltreating families, men in neglectful families are perceived by the mothers as being less adequate marital partners, less supportive and more violent.     

Larregue’s Critique of Cofnas et al. (2017): A Rejoinder

Data from the General Social Survey indicate that conservatives’ self-reported trust in scientists has steadily decreased since 1974. In Cofnas et al. (The American Sociologist, 2017), we suggested that this trend may have been partly driven by the increasing tendency of scientific institutions, and the representatives of such institutions, to distort social science for the sake of liberal activism. Larregue (The American Sociologist, 2017) makes three opposing arguments: (1) It is “very hard” to establish the charge of bias, especially since we did “not state what [we] mean by ‘bias.’” (2) We did not establish a causal relationship between scientists’ (alleged) liberal activism and conservatives’ distrust of science, and we ignored activism by conservative scientists. (3) We were wrong to advocate “affirmative action” for conservatives in academia. We address these arguments in turn: (1) Larregue does not engage with our main arguments that liberal bias exists in social science. (2) In recent years, prominent scientific organizations have, with great publicity, intervened in policy debates, always supporting the liberal side without exception. It is not unreasonable to assume that this would diminish conservatives’ trust in these organizations. Contra Larregue, in Cofnas et al. (The American Sociologist, 2017) we explicitly acknowledged that conservative scientists can also be biased. (3) We never advocated “affirmative action” for conservatives, and in fact we object to such a proposal.     

Food for Thought: Analyzing Public Opinion on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program

ABSTRACT

This project explores public opinion on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) in news and social media outlets, and tracks elected representatives’ voting records on issues relating to SNAP and food insecurity. We used machine learning, sentiment analysis, and text mining to analyze national and state level coverage of SNAP in order to gauge perceptions of the program over time across these outlets. Results indicate that the majority of news coverage has negative sentiment, more partisan news outlets have more extreme sentiment, and that clustering of negative reporting on SNAP occurs in the Midwest. Our final results and tools will be displayed in an online application that the ACFB Advocacy team can use to inform their communication to relevant stakeholders.     

Have We Put an End to Social Promotion? Changes in School Progress among Children Aged 6 to 17 from 1972 to 2005

We examine trends over time in the proportion of children below the modal grade for their age (BMG), a proxy for grade retention, and in the effects of its demographic and socioeconomic correlates. We estimate a logistic regression model with partial constraints predicting BMG using the annual October school enrollment supplements of the Current Population Survey. This model identifies systematic variation in the effects of social background across age and time from 1972 to 2005. While the effects of socioeconomic background variables on progress through school have become increasingly powerful as children grow older, that typical pattern has been attenuated across the past three decades by a steady secular decline in the influence of those variables across all ages. A great deal of concern has been expressed about rising levels of economic and social inequality in the United States since the middle 1970s, and about the potential intergenerational effects of such inequality. However, there has been an opposite trend in the effects of social origins on being BMG. A trend is not a law, and there is reason to be concerned about the recent deceleration of the secular decline in effects of social background on being BMG.     

Three strikes and you're out: Demographic analysis of mandatory prison sentencing

Much of the debate about the costs and benefits of “three-strikes” laws for repeat felony offenders is implicitly demographic, relying on unexamined assumptions about prison population dynamics. However, even state-of-the-art analysis has omitted important demographic details. We construct a multistate life-table model of population flows to and from prisons, incorporating age-specific transition rates estimated from administrative data from Florida. We use the multistate life-table model to investigate patterns of prison population growth and aging under many variants of three-strikes laws. Our analysis allows us to quantify these demographic changes and suggests that the aging of prison populations under three-strikes policies will Significantly undermine their long-run effectiveness.