Current Developments in Social Care Services for Older Adults in the Czech Republic: Trends Towards Deinstitutionalization and Marketization

ABSTRACT

Deinstitutionalization and marketization of eldercare has been delayed by 20 years in the Czech Republic compared to Western Europe, and it takes place in a completely different context, characterized by the legacy of communism, a growing older population, and less generous public subsidies. This study is the first in the Czech Republic to examine how deinstitutionalization and marketization effect implementation of these principles on the availability and quality of eldercare services at regional and municipal levels. A mixed-method approach was used, combining several data sources (policy documents, administrative data, statistics, expert panel, and secondary use of qualitative data). The findings suggest that the support for and availability of home-based care has declined, despite the ever-increasing number of older adults and policy preference for deinstitutionalization. Furthermore, home-based services have failed to adjust to growing care needs of older adults (e.g., inflexible schedules, limited provision of time-demanding care, inadequate staff composition). This situation occasioned an unintended outcome: the emergence of nonregistered, semilegal, for-profit nursing homes offering low-quality care and poor working conditions, and subject to no quality control. The health and even lives of older adults are at risk if they choose such services. Research is needed to study older adult decision making and offer them tools to identify and avoid questionable services.     

Ellsberg paradox: Ambiguity and complexity aversions compared

We present a simple model where preferences with complexity aversion, rather than ambiguity aversion, resolve the Ellsberg paradox. We test our theory using laboratory experiments where subjects choose among lotteries that “range” from a simple risky lottery, through risky but more complex lotteries, to one similar to Ellsberg’s ambiguity urn. Our model ranks lotteries according to their complexity and makes different—at times contrasting—predictions than most models of ambiguity in response to manipulations of prizes. The results support that complexity aversion preferences play an important and separate role from beliefs with ambiguity aversion in explaining behavior under uncertainty.     

Happiness and marginalization rates for internal Mexican migrants and the native-born population in Baja California,Mexico

More than 3.3 million people were internal migrants in Mexico in 2010 (INEGI, 2011a). This internal migration has played an important role in the growth and expansion of cities in Mexico, particularly in the country's northern border region. Growth in the municipalities has been driven by neoliberal economic policies and factors of globalization. This paper considers the level of happiness and marginalization for those who were born in and those who migrated to the two largest municipalities in Baja California, Mexicali and Tijuana. This study finds that there are not many differences between the native-born and migrants’ expressed level of happiness and marginalization level but there are differences in the municipalities. From these findings, the importance of place, its nature as well as manmade characteristics, and people are more important factors than marginalization or place of birth to finding happiness.     

Standard statistical tools for the breed allocation problem

Modern technologies are frequently used in order to deal with new genomic problems. For instance, the STRUCTURE software is usually employed for breed assignment based on genetic information. However, standard statistical techniques offer a number of valuable tools which can be successfully used for dealing with most problems. In this paper, we investigated the capability of microsatellite markers for individual identification and their potential use for breed assignment of individuals in seventy Lidia breed lines and breeders. Traditional binomial logistic regression is applied to each line and used to assign one individual to a particular line. In addition, the area under receiver operating curve (AUC) criterion is used to measure the capability of the microsatellite-based models to separate the groups. This method allows us to identify which microsatellite loci are related to each line. Overall, only one subject was misclassified or a 99.94% correct allocation. The minimum observed AUC was 0.986 with an average of 0.997. These results suggest that our method is competitive for animal allocation and has some interpretative advantages and a strong relationship with methods based on SNPs and related techniques.     

Skew-normal distribution for growth curve models in presence of a heteroscedasticity structure

In general, growth models are adjusted under the assumptions that the error terms are homoscedastic and normally distributed. However, these assumptions are often not verified in practice. In this work we propose four growth models (Morgan–Mercer–Flodin, von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, and Richards) considering different distributions (normal, skew-normal) for the error terms and three different covariance structures. Maximum likelihood estimation procedure is addressed. A simulation study is performed in order to verify the appropriateness of the proposed growth curve models. The methodology is also illustrated on a real dataset.     

Core/periphery scientific collaboration networks among very similar researchers

Empirical studies such as Goyal et al. (J Polit Econ 114(2):403–412, 2006) or Newman (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 101(Suppl. 1):5200–5205, 2004) show that scientific collaboration networks present a highly unequal and hierarchical distribution of links. This implies that some researchers can be much more active and productive than others and, consequently, they can enjoy a much better scientific reputation. One may think that big intrinsical differences among researchers can constitute the main driving force behind these inequalities. Nevertheless, this model shows that, under specific circumstances, very similar individuals may self-organize themselves forming unequal and hierarchical structures.     

Application of Correspondence Analysis in the Assessment of Mine Tailings Dam Breakage Risk in the Mediterranean Region

A new statistical approach for preliminary risk evaluation of breakage in tailings dam is presented and illustrated by a case study regarding the Mediterranean region. The objective of the proposed method is to establish an empirical scale of risk, from which guidelines for prioritizing the collection of further specific information can be derived. The method relies on a historical database containing, in essence, two sets of qualitative data: the first set concerns the variables that are observable before the disaster (e.g., type and size of the dam, its location, and state of activity), and the second refers to the consequences of the disaster (e.g., failure type, sludge characteristics, fatalities categorization, and downstream range of damage). Based on a modified form of correspondence analysis, where the second set of attributes are projected as "supplementary variables" onto the axes provided by the eigenvalue decomposition of the matrix referring to the first set, a "qualitative regression" is performed, relating the variables to be predicted (contained in the second set) with the "predictors" (the observable variables). On the grounds of the previously derived relationship, the risk of breakage in a new case can be evaluated, given observable variables. The method was applied in a case study regarding a set of 13 test sites where the ranking of risk obtained was validated by expert knowledge. Once validated, the procedure was included in the final output of the e-EcoRisk UE project (A Regional Enterprise Network Decision-Support System for Environmental Risk and Disaster Management of Large-Scale Industrial Spills), allowing for a dynamic historical database updating and providing a prompt rough risk evaluation for a new case. The aim of this section of the global project is to provide a quantified context where failure cases occurred in the past for supporting analogue reasoning in preventing similar situations.     

由赴港生子到生育公地悲剧的认识

赴港生子是近年来中国大陆出现的新的人口现象,且多是能领社会风习之先的富人所为,其中必具诸多预示性内涵。文章通过现象解析、模型推演,证明在存在性别偏好的条件下,孩子的数量质量替代率下降;放宽约束条件后,富人更具多生的潜能;进而对理性家庭最优生育选择必将导致的生育公地悲剧展开理论探讨;并佐以浙江省近年来人口发展资料,揭示出在目前我国人口发展新情境中,部分富人,尤其是民营企业主的生育意愿有被激活且渐行释放的迹象,经济发达地区的生育率似有持续走高之势,生育率反弹的势能似在不断增强。藉此,应该继续维持现有政策执行力,增强新型生育文化的引致力。     

The Family Context of Cohabitation and Single Motherhood in Latin America

The dramatic shift from marriage to cohabitation during the last four decades in most Latin American countries, even among the upper social strata, begs the question as to the living arrangements of cohabiting couples and single mothers. The new “Family Interrelationships Variables” in the IPUMS samples of Latin American censuses facilitated the construction of an enlarged LIPRO typology. LIPRO classifies individuals with respect to the types of households in which they are living. The results indicate that cohabiting women and single mothers aged 25 to 29 are frequently found in their parental households or in other extended or composite households. However, there are large variations depending on country and education. For instance, cohabitation is mainly in nuclear households, as in Europe, in Puerto Rico, Costa Rica, Brazil, and Argentina. It occurs mainly in the context of extended households in Peru, Bolivia, Colombia, Venezuela, Panama, and Cuba. Mexico and Chile occupy intermediate positions. In all instances co‐residence of cohabiting couples with other kin drops significantly upon the transition to parenthood, at which point there are no longer any differences between cohabiting and married couples. Single mothers, however, continue to co‐reside in extended or composite households to a larger extent, and this holds particularly for the better‐educated among them. This analysis illustrates that cohabitation of the traditional type and of the “Second Demographic Transition” type are found alongside each other, with one being more important than the other depending on country and on educational level or social class within each country.