Promoting personalization in social care services for older people

This article presents findings on 4 themes associated with the personalization of social care for older people: integration of health and social care services; initiatives that prevent the need for more costly interventions; services to maintain people at home; and systems that promote choice, control, and flexibility. The quantitative study utilized data from a national postal survey conducted in England. Findings suggest variable progress regarding the range and style of support available to older people. These are discussed in the context of service integration, community-based services, and consumer-directed care. Implications for service development and future research are highlighted.     

The regression dilemma

A substantial fraction of the statistical analyses and in particular statistical computing is done under the heading of multiple linear regression. That is the fitting of equations to multivariate data using the least squares technique for estimating parameters The optimality properties of these estimates are described in an ideal setting which is not often realized in practice.

Frequently, we do not have "good" data in the sense that the errors are non-normal or the variance is non-homogeneous. The data may contain outliers or extremes which are not easily detectable but variables in the proper functional, and we. may have the linearity

Prior to the mid-sixties regression programs provided just the basic least squares computations plus possibly a step-wise algorithm for variable selection. The increased interest in regression prompted by dramatic improvements in computers has led to a vast amount of literatur describing alternatives to least squares improved variable selection methods and extensive diagnostic procedures

The purpose of this paper is to summarize and illustrate some of these recent developments. In particular we shall review some of the potential problems with regression data discuss the statistics and techniques used to detect these problems and consider some of the proposed solutions. An example is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of these diagnostic methods in revealing such problems and the potential consequences of employing the proposed methods.     

The asymptotic moment profile and maximum likelihood: Applications to gamma and gamma ratio densities

In previous papers ( Bowman and Shenton, 1998, 1999a ) we have given expressions for the asymptotic skewness and kurtosis for maximum likelihood estimators in the case of several parameters. Skewness is measured by the third standardized central moment, and kurtosis by the fourth standardized central moment. Moments of the basic structure are assumed to exist. The overarching entity is the covariance matrix ( Hessian form ), and elements of its inverse. These entities involve Stieltjes integrals relating to sums of products of multiple derivatives linked to the basic structure. The first paper dealt with skewness and gives a simple expression read¬ily computerized. The second paper is devoted to the forth standardized central moment and although a certain simplification is discovered, the resulting formula is still somewhat complicated, ft is surprising to find that the asymptotic kurtosis in general requires the evaluation of several hundred components. The present paper studies cases involving estimator for two parameter gamma and one, and three pa¬rameter gamma ratio densities, and mentions strategies aimed at avoiding algebraic and numerical errors.     

Who Forecasts Better?

This article suggests that the emphasis on forecast evaluations should be redirected from searching for “best” forecasters to finding those who are “better.” A new methodology is developed, and the results indicate that it is possible to identify “better” forecasters.     

Hodges-Lehmann Scale Estimator for Cauchy Distribution

We draw here on the relation between the Cauchy and hyperbolic secant distributions to prove that the MLE of the scale parameter of the Cauchy distribution is log-normally distributed and to study the properties of a Hodges-Lehmann type estimator for the scale parameter. This scale estimator is slightly biased but performs well even on small samples regardless of the location parameter. The asymptotic efficiency of the estimator is 98%.     

Estimation of Mittag-Leffler Parameters

We propose a procedure for estimating the parameters of the Mittag-Leffler (ML) and the generalized Mittag-Leffler (GML) distributions. The algorithm is less restrictive, computationally simple, and necessary to make these models usable in practice. A comparison with the fractional moment estimator indicated favorable results for the proposed method.     

Robust parameter estimation of regression model with AR(p) error terms

In this article, we consider a linear regression model with AR(p) error terms with the assumption that the error terms have a t distribution as a heavy-tailed alternative to the normal distribution. We obtain the estimators for the model parameters by using the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) method. We conduct an iteratively reweighting algorithm (IRA) to find the estimates for the parameters of interest. We provide a simulation study and three real data examples to illustrate the performance of the proposed robust estimators based on t distribution.     

Optimal number of components in a load-sharing system for maximizing reliability

A $k$-out-of-$n$:G load sharing system is a cluster of $n$ components designed to withstand a certain amount of load in field operation, working only if no fewer than $k$ components work. Previous research on a load sharing system has focused on predicting the time-independent reliability from the stress–strength model or estimating the unknown parameters of the time-dependent reliability for a given load sharing rule. Differently, in this paper, we consider the problem of determining the optimal $n$ to maximize the reliability of both $n$-out-of-$n$:G and ($n$–$1$)-out-of-$n$:G load sharing systems. Since the load of each component decreases in $n$, the proportional hazard model is employed to relate the component failure rate with the load, assuming that the components, which have exponential distributions for given loads, are independent of each other. We then derive a sufficient condition under which a smaller number of components each withstanding a high load is preferred to a larger number of components each withstanding a small load. A numerical example is given for the rocket propulsion system to illustrate the result.     

Boomer Matters: Responding to Emotional Health Needs in an Aging Society

This study explores baby boomer-aged adults’ experiences accessing an emotional health program (EHP) in a community-based seniors’ center, examining differences between it and an older cohort of users. Data generation includes client-based surveys (n=118), in-depth qualitative interviews (n=20) with client users and professionally-trained counselors (n=2), and a focus group with peer support service worker (n=14). Key findings suggest EHPs as a preventative strategy to address familial abuse, the need for education and support on sexual health and dating, and the need to combat ageism to improve access. Community-based seniors’ centers as a cost-effective approach to health promotion is also highlighted.