Public Disclosure and Dissimulation of Insider Trades

Regulation requiring insiders to publicly disclose their stock trades after the fact complicates the trading decisions of informed, rent‐seeking insiders. Given this requirement, we present an insider's equilibrium trading strategy in a multiperiod rational expectations framework. Relative to Kyle (1985), price discovery is accelerated and insider profits are lower. The strategy balances immediate profits from informed trades against the reduction in future profits following trade disclosure and, hence, revelation of some of the insider's information. Our results offer a novel rationale for contrarian trading: dissimulation, a phenomenon distinct from manipulation, may underlie insiders' trading decisions.     

Infants' lexical comprehension and lexical anticipation abilities are closely linked in early language development

Theories across cognitive domains propose that anticipating upcoming sensory input supports information processing. In line with this view, prior findings indicate that adults and children anticipate upcoming words during real-time language processing, via such processes as prediction and priming. However, it is unclear if anticipatory processes are strictly an outcome of prior language development or are more entwined with language learning and development. We operationalized this theoretical question as whether developmental emergence of comprehension of lexical items occurs before or concurrently with the anticipation of these lexical items. To this end, we tested infants of ages 12, 15, 18, and 24 months (N = 67) on their abilities to comprehend and anticipate familiar nouns. In an eye-tracking task, infants viewed pairs of images and heard sentences with either informative words (e.g., eat) that allowed them to anticipate an upcoming noun (e.g., cookie), or uninformative words (e.g., see). Findings indicated that infants' comprehension and anticipation abilities are closely linked over developmental time and within individuals. Importantly, we do not find evidence for lexical comprehension in the absence of lexical anticipation. Thus, anticipatory processes are present early in infants' second year, suggesting they are a part of language development rather than solely an outcome of it.     

Production System Development for Expert Systems Using a Recursive Partitioning Induction Approach: An Application to Mortgage,Commercial, and Consumer Lending

The concepts of expert systems and decision support systems have received considerable attention recently. While systems have been proposed for various problem areas in business, difficulties still exist in the knowledge acquisition phase of development. This paper presents a recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) approach to knowledge acquisition. The RPA production system approach was applied to data sets representing the mortgage, commercial, and consumer lending problems. Comparison of the classification rates across these problems to the results of a generalized inductive inference production system (Quinlan's ID3 algorithm) and across the mortgage and commercial lending problems to traditional statistical modeling approaches indicated that the RPA approach provided superior results while using fewer variables.