Identifying Changing Aviation Threat Environments Within an Adaptive Homeland Security Advisory System

A critical component of aviation security consists of screening passengers and baggage to protect airports and aircraft from terrorist threats. Advancements in screening device technology have increased the ability to detect these threats; however, specifying the operational configurations of these devices in response to changes in the threat environment can become difficult. This article proposes to use Fisher information as a statistical measure for detecting changes in the threat environment. The perceived risk of passengers, according to prescreening information and behavior analysis, is analyzed as the passengers sequentially enter the security checkpoint. The alarm responses from the devices used to detect threats are also analyzed to monitor significant changes in the frequency of threat items uncovered. The key results are that this information‐based measure can be used within the Homeland Security Advisory System to indicate changes in threat conditions in real time, and provide the flexibility of security screening detection devices to responsively and automatically adapt operational configurations to these changing threat conditions.     

Biosecurity Policy and the Use of Geospatial Predictive Tools to Address Invasive Plants: Updating the Risk Analysis Toolbox

International and national biosecurity policies consider risk assessment a critical component of overall plant health risk analysis. The Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures, the International Plant Protection Convention, and the Convention on Biological Diversity all provide guidelines and recommendations on how to use risk assessment. This article discusses how these instruments address risk assessment, and makes recommendations on how the risk assessment process needs to incorporate current geospatial predictive science and geographic information systems into the plant health biosecurity risk analysis toolbox.     

Risk Perception and Information Processing: The Development and Validation of a Questionnaire to Assess Self‐Reported Information Processing

The role of information processing in understanding people's responses to risk information has recently received substantial attention. One limitation of this research concerns the unavailability of a validated questionnaire of information processing. This article presents two studies in which we describe the development and validation of the Information‐Processing Questionnaire to meet that need. Study 1 describes the development and initial validation of the questionnaire. Participants were randomized to either a systematic processing or a heuristic processing condition after which they completed a manipulation check and the initial 15‐item questionnaire and again two weeks later. The questionnaire was subjected to factor reliability and validity analyses on both measurement times for purposes of cross‐validation of the results. A two‐factor solution was observed representing a systematic processing and a heuristic processing subscale. The resulting scale showed good reliability and validity, with the systematic condition scoring significantly higher on the systematic subscale and the heuristic processing condition significantly higher on the heuristic subscale. Study 2 sought to further validate the questionnaire in a field study. Results of the second study corresponded with those of Study 1 and provided further evidence of the validity of the Information‐Processing Questionnaire. The availability of this information‐processing scale will be a valuable asset for future research and may provide researchers with new research opportunities.     

A Review of Risk Perceptions and Other Factors that Influence Flood Mitigation Behavior

In flood risk management, a shift can be observed toward more integrated approaches that increasingly address the role of private households in implementing flood damage mitigation measures. This has resulted in a growing number of studies into the supposed positive relationship between individual flood risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Our literature review shows, however, that, actually, this relationship is hardly observed in empirical studies. Two arguments are provided as an explanation. First, on the basis of protection motivation theory, a theoretical framework is discussed suggesting that individuals’ high‐risk perceptions need to be accompanied by coping appraisal to result in a protective response. Second, it is pointed out that possible feedback from already‐adopted mitigation measures on risk perceptions has hardly been considered by current studies. In addition, we also provide a review of factors that drive precautionary behavior other than risk perceptions. It is found that factors such as coping appraisal are consistently related to mitigation behavior. We conclude, therefore, that the current focus on risk perceptions as a means to explain and promote private flood mitigation behavior is not supported on either theoretical or empirical grounds.     

The heritability of emergent leadership: Age and gender as moderating factors

In this study, we examined the moderating influences of gender and age with respect to testing the heritability of leadership emergence. A large data base of 12,112 twins from Sweden was used in the current study to decompose the variance of emergent leadership into an unobservable genetic component and environmental components that are either common or unshared among twin pairs. Consistent with prior leadership research on genetics, we found that a genetic factor is able to explain a significant proportion of the variation across individuals in predicting how twins perceive their emergent leadership behavior (about 44% for women and 37% for men). Furthermore, we also found that the magnitude of genetic influence on emergent leadership varied with age, but only for women with the heritability estimate being highest for the mid-age women versus lowest for the older women. Implications for advancing research on the genetic and environmental influences on leadership emergence are discussed.     

Exploring the role of supervisor trust in the associations between multiple sources of relationship conflict and organizational citizenship behavior

We develop and test a model that builds directly on social exchange theory to predict different roles for supervisor trust in the relationships between organizational citizenship behavior and relationship conflict occurring between supervisors and subordinates and between peers. Specifically, we posit that the association between citizenship behavior and relationship conflict between employees and supervisors is mediated by supervisor trust, while the association between citizenship behaviors and relationship conflict occurring between peers is moderated by supervisor trust. We test our dual role for supervisor trust in a field study of 160 supervisor–employee dyads. Results support the different roles played by supervisor trust. We close by discussing the implications of our results for theory and practice in the relationship conflict and citizenship domains.     

A comparative study of three leadership approaches in India

We examined the validity of three leadership approaches in an organization in India. We used a multi-theory and multi-method design to competitively test transformational leadership theory, the nurturant–task leadership model, and a local organization-specific leadership model. Transformation leadership theory is one of the most widely studied and accepted theories in Western countries and is viewed as a universalistic leadership approach. The nurturant–task leadership model was developed in India and viewed as a culture-specific leadership approach. We also developed a local leadership model, called RDO, a pseudonym for the organization, and viewed it as an organization-specific leadership approach, using a qualitative analysis of interview data. The overall results of our qualitative–quantitative work provide strong support for the RDO leadership model, some support for a nurturant–task leadership model, and minimal support for transformational leadership theory. These results suggest that research designs that include a multi-theory, multi-methods approach in a single culture have the potential to increase our understanding of leadership processes.     

A Service Provider's Elicitation of Its Customers’ Demand Distributions by a Price Mechanism

In a service environment a service provider needs to determine the amount and kinds of capacity to meet customers’ needs over many periods. To make good decisions, she needs to know the probability distribution of her customers’ demand in each period. We study a situation in which customers’ demand for a given service is random in each period, but inelastic, or modeled well by this assumption, and cannot be delayed to the next period. This article presents a mechanism that allows a service provider to learn the distribution of a customer's demand by offering him a set of contracts through which he can partially prepay for future service for a reduced cost for units of service based on anticipated needs. We describe the form of a set of contracts that will cause the customer to reveal his demand distribution as he minimizes his expected costs. To justify the effort of organizing and offering contracts, we present an application that demonstrates the cost savings to the service provider with better capacity planning using the truthfully elicited distribution.     

AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF LIFETIME INEQUALITY: HOW CONTINENTAL EUROPE RESEMBLES NORTH AMERICA

We compare earnings inequality and mobility across the United States, Canada, France, Germany and the United Kingdom during the late 1990s. A flexible model of earnings dynamics that isolates positional mobility within a stable earnings distribution is estimated. Earnings trajectories are then simulated, and lifetime annuity value distributions are constructed. Earnings mobility and employment risk are found to be positively correlated with base‐year inequality. Taken together they produce more equalization in countries with high cross‐section inequality such that the countries in our sample have more similar lifetime inequality levels than cross‐section measures suggest.     

Inventory Policy with Parametric Demand: Operational Statistics,Linear Correction,and Regression

In this paper, we consider data‐driven approaches to the problem of inventory control. We first consider the approach of operational statistics and review related results which enable us to maximize a priori expected profit uniformly over all parameter values, when the demand distribution is known up to the location and scale parameters. For the case of the unknown shape parameter, we first suggest a heuristic approach based on operational statistics to obtain improved ordering policies and illustrate the same for the case of a Pareto demand distribution. In more general cases where the heuristic is not applicable, we suggest linear correction and support vector regression approaches to better estimate ordering policies, and illustrate these using a Gamma demand distribution. In certain cases, our proposed approaches are found to yield significant improvements.