FORECASTING U.S. MORTALITY:

This article compares two methodologies for modeling and forecasting statistical time series models of demographic processes: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and structural time series analysis. The Lee-Carter method is used to construct nonlinear demographic models of U.S. mortality rates for the total population, gender, and race and gender combined. Single time varying parameters of k, the index of mortality, are derived from these model and fitted and forecasted using the two methodologies. Forecasts of life expectancy at birth, e₀, are generated from these indexes of k. Results show marginal differences in fit and forecasts between the two statistical approaches with a slight advantage to structural models. Stability across models for both methodologies offers support for the robustness of this approach to demographic forecasting.     

The 1960s Black Riots Revisited: City Level Explanations of Their Severity

This paper involves a city-level investigation of the 1964–1971 black rioting. It attempts to explain inter-city variations in the severity of the rioting with inter-city variations in black population size, political structure, black-white income inequality, and regional location. The research charts two new areas of inquiry: (1) It is the first study to use data on the entire rioting period (1964–71). (2) Most previous investigators have concentrated on linear hypotheses, e.g., most have posited and tested for a linear relationship between riot activity and black-white economic inequality. However, a review of theoretic commentary on rebellion reveals that some potential relationships should be hypothesized as curvilinear; more specifically, plausible hypotheses can be developed that rebellious activity is highest where economic inequality and political responsiveness are moderate. Such hypotheses are developed and tested. The overall pattern of results supported the posited curvilinear relationships.     

Word Learning in Children Following Cochlear Implantation

An experimental procedure was developed to investigate word-learning skills of children who use cochlear implants (CIs). Using interactive play scenarios, 2- to 5-year olds were presented with sets of objects (Beanie Baby stuffed animals) and words for their names that corresponded to salient perceptual attributes (e.g., "horns" for a goat). Their knowledge of the word-object associations was measured immediately after exposure and then following a 2-hour delay. Children who use cochlear implants performed more poorly than age-matched children with typical hearing both receptively and expressively. Both groups of children showed retention of the word-object associations in the delayed testing conditions for words that were previously known. Our findings suggest that although pediatric CI users may have impaired phonological processing skills, their long-term memory for familiar words may be similar to children with typical hearing. Further, the methods that developed in this study should be useful for investigating other aspects of word learning in children who use CIs.     

The effects of physical activity and sedentary behavior on cognitive health in older adults

Physical activity has been shown to be positively associated with cognitive health, but the mechanisms underlying the benefits of physical activity on cognitive health are unclear. The present study simultaneously examined two hypotheses using structural equation modeling (SEM). The depression-reduction hypothesis states that depression suppresses cognitive ability and that physical activity alleviates dysphoric mood and thereby improves cognitive ability. The social-stimulation hypothesis posits that social contact, which is often facilitated by socially laden physical activities, improves cognitive functioning by stimulating the nervous system. Sedentary behavior in the absence of physical activity is expected to exert an inverse relationship on cognitive health through each of these hypotheses. Community-dwelling elders (N = 158) were administered a variety of measures of cognition, depression, social support, and physical activity. SEM techniques provided partial support for the social-stimulation hypothesis and depression-reduction hypothesis. Implications for treating depression and improving cognitive functioning are discussed.     

Predictors of falling in older Maryland drivers: a structural-equation model

Falls can impair health and reduce quality of life among older adults. Although many factors are related to falling, few analyses examine causal models of this behavior. In this study, factors associated with falling were explored simultaneously using structural-equation modeling. A variety of cognitive, physical-performance, and health measures were administered to 694 older adult drivers from the state of Maryland. The observed and latent variables of age, cognitive ability, physical functioning, health, and falling behavior were used to create a causal model. The model revealed that being older was associated with declines in cognition, and such cognitive declines predicted increased falling. Similarly, poorer health was related to poorer physical functioning, which, in turn, also predicted increased falling. This model indicates that in addition to existing fall-prevention interventions aimed at improving physical functioning, interventions to improve cognition and health might also be effective. It is speculated that fear of falling, which often results in reduced mobility among older adults, might account for the lack of a direct relationship between age and falling. This hypothesis should be examined in further research.     

Jocks, nerds, babes and thugs: A research note on regional differences in adolescent gender norms

We use data from 1,755 college students to explore regional differences in adolescent gender norms. Students attending four Northern universities and three Southern universities during the 1997–1998 academic year provided information on the ways that adolescents in their high schools had gained prestige with peers. The analyses revealed significant gender differences on fourteen of the fifteen most common avenues to prestige. Leading avenues to prestige for boys—sports, grades, and intelligence—did not vary by region. Leading avenues to prestige for girls—physical attractiveness, grades, and intelligence—also did not vary by region. However, consistent with the stronger emphasis on traditional moral views generally found in the South than the North, regional differences were found for several other avenues to prestige. Her work focuses on the effects of status transitions on intergenerational relations, social support networks, and marital quality. In collaboration with Karl Pillemer, she is currently studying caregivers' social networks during bereavement, and relations between caregivers and nursing home staff. Her research interests include gender stratification, family, and education. Currently, she is a Research Associate on a project examining health consequences of Mexican migration, funded primarily by the Hewlett Foundation (Co-PIs: Katherine M. Donato, (LSU), and Shawn Malia Kanaiaupuni, University of Wisconsin-Madison). Her dissertation is entitled “Wages and Domestic Labor: Explaining the Gender Gap in Earnings.     

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN THE SHADOW OF CONFLICT

Appropriation possibilities significantly alter economic fundamentals in a production and exchange economy. This is the primary lesson of our model, which combines Ricardian trade and the potential for predator/prey behavior. The model shows how conflict can be subdued by mutual gains from trade, but at a resource cost that modifies the exchange itself. On the other hand, it identifies conditions wherein appropriation incentives are so strong that specialized production and trade are precluded altogether. The model also reveals a new way to think about and measure the gains from trade. ( JEL C72, D51, D74, F10)     

Interorganizational Determinants of Environmental Purchasing: Initial Evidence from the Consumer Products Industries*

Environmental purchasing consists of the purchasing function's involvement in activities that include reduction, recycling, reuse, and substitution of materials. Despite the potentially important role that the purchasing function can play in a firm's environmental activities, little research has been performed to date that examines the factors that impact environmental purchasing. The authors develop and empirically test a theoretical model that examines how interorganizational factors both drive and constrain purchasing's involvement in environmental activities. The empirical findings suggest that environmental purchasing activities will be facilitated through increased coordination with suppliers as well as downstream members of the supply chain, including retailers. The results also suggest the need for increased coordination within the firm, particularly between the purchasing function on the inbound side and marketing and distribution functions on the outbound side.     

The impact of place? A reassessment of the importance of the South in affecting beliefs about racial inequality

Research shows that individuals living in the southern part of the United States express more negative racial attitudes than those living outside the South. Using data from The American National Election Study (NES), the purpose of this paper is to assess whether key factors often associated with the Southern attitude distinction are indeed more potent in the South than elsewhere. Drawing data from the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, we further assess whether the impact of the South has increased or decreased over time. Results indicate that the impact of the South is negligible at best. Findings do show that place does matter for conservatives. However, in this case, non-South location matters more than the South. Relative to their liberal counterparts, conservatives in the non-South espouse more individualistic beliefs than do their Southern counterparts. These findings are discussed within the dominant theoretical framework in this area.