The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations

This paper argues that, in the presence of intersectoral input–output linkages, microeconomic idiosyncratic shocks may lead to aggregate fluctuations. We show that, as the economy becomes more disaggregated, the rate at which aggregate volatility decays is determined by the structure of the network capturing such linkages. Our main results provide a characterization of this relationship in terms of the importance of different sectors as suppliers to their immediate customers, as well as their role as indirect suppliers to chains of downstream sectors. Such higher‐order interconnections capture the possibility of “cascade effects” whereby productivity shocks to a sector propagate not only to its immediate downstream customers, but also to the rest of the economy. Our results highlight that sizable aggregate volatility is obtained from sectoral idiosyncratic shocks only if there exists significant asymmetry in the roles that sectors play as suppliers to others, and that the “sparseness” of the input–output matrix is unrelated to the nature of aggregate fluctuations.     

SMPD Scenarios of Spatial Distribution of Human Population in China

Three scenarios of spatial distribution of human population in China are developed in the years 2010 and 2020, respectively by means of the method of surface modeling of population distribution (SMPD). Each one of the SMPD scenarios is defined as a plausible alternative future under particular assumptions of elevation, water system, net primary productivity (NPP), urbanization, transport infrastructure development, and population growth. The SMPD scenarios show that if population could freely migrate within the whole China, the balanced ratios of population in the western region, the middle region and the eastern region to total population in the whole China would be 16%, 33% and 52%, respectively.     

Regression‐type models for extremal dependence

We propose a vector generalized additive modeling framework for taking into account the effect of covariates on angular density functions in a multivariate extreme value context. The proposed methods are tailored for settings where the dependence between extreme values may change according to covariates. We devise a maximum penalized log‐likelihood estimator, discuss details of the estimation procedure, and derive its consistency and asymptotic normality. The simulation study suggests that the proposed methods perform well in a wealth of simulation scenarios by accurately recovering the true covariate‐adjusted angular density. Our empirical analysis reveals relevant dynamics of the dependence between extreme air temperatures in two alpine resorts during the winter season.     

Rolling with the shakes: an insight into teenagers’ perceptions of recovery after the Canterbury earthquakes

Natural disasters are harmful worldwide events that inflict multiple psychosocial impacts on disaster-exposed individuals. A significant proportion of affected individuals are teenagers (13–18 years old) who, compared with adults, have been historically overlooked in disaster research. The literature is particularly sparse concerning teenagers’ recovery from natural disasters, specifically what recovery means to them and the contributing factors towards their positive recovery. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to gain deeper insight into this largely unexplored area by conducting five focus groups with teenagers (16–18 years) who experienced at least one of the Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquakes since and including the initial September 2010 earthquake. This study directly asked teenagers about their recovery over the three years after the initial earthquakes, with data being analysed using thematic analysis. Two main themes were identified: (1) perceptions of recovery, with three sub-themes (i) knowledge and being less frightened, (ii) talking about the earthquakes and (iii) shift in perspectives; and (2) contributing factors to recovery, with three sub-themes (i) participation in the community response, (ii) returning to school and (iii) the rebuild of Christchurch. These factors provide insight into how we can better support the recovery process for disaster-exposed teenagers to reduce long-term distress.     

Family Functioning and Its Relation to Parental Discipline

The Family Adaptability and Cohesion Scales (FACES) are one of the most used instruments in the study of family relations, assessing relevant dimensions of family functioning. This study aims to examine the relationship between cohesion, communication and family satisfaction, measured by FACES IV, and the dimensions of discipline inventory (DDI). The sample consisted of 380 subjects (190 adolescents and 190 parents). Fathers are the main users of physical discipline and boys are the main targets of most discipline practices. Regarding the association of the DDI and FACES, families with a balanced cohesion use less punitive discipline, families with enmeshed cohesion and families with disengaged cohesion have higher and less use of the analyzed disciplinary practices respectively. Considering the results, it may be useful to work together with families to promote the use of positive disciplinary methods and work their communication skills in order to improve cohesion and consequently family satisfaction.     

Cultural Circuits of Climate Change in U.K. Broadsheet Newspapers, 1985–2003

This article argues for a cultural perspective to be brought to bear on studies of climate change risk perception. Developing the "circuit of culture" model, the article maintains that the producers and consumers of media texts are jointly engaged in dynamic, meaning-making activities that are context-specific and that change over time. A critical discourse analysis of climate change based on a database of newspaper reports from three U.K. broadsheet papers over the period 1985-2003 is presented. This empirical study identifies three distinct circuits of climate change-1985-1990, 1991-1996, 1997-2003-which are characterized by different framings of risks associated with climate change. The article concludes that there is evidence of social learning as actors build on their experiences in relation to climate change science and policy making. Two important factors in shaping the U.K.'s broadsheet newspapers' discourse on "dangerous" climate change emerge as the agency of top political figures and the dominant ideological standpoints in different newspapers.     

On the estimation of serial correlation in Markov-dependent production processes

In this paper, we present a study about the estimation of the serial correlation for Markov chain models which is used often in the quality control of autocorrelated processes. Two estimators, non-parametric and multinomial, for the correlation coefficient are discussed. They are compared with the maximum likelihood estimator [U.N. Bhat and R. Lal, Attribute control charts for Markov dependent production process, IIE Trans. 22 (2) (1990), pp. 181–188.] by using some theoretical facts and the Monte Carlo simulation under several scenarios that consider large and small correlations as well a range of fractions (p) of non-conforming items. The theoretical results show that for any value of p≠0.5 and processes with autocorrelation higher than 0.5, the multinomial is more precise than maximum likelihood. However, the maximum likelihood is better when the autocorrelation is smaller than 0.5. The estimators are similar for p=0.5. Considering the average of all simulated scenarios, the multinomial estimator presented lower mean error values and higher precision, being, therefore, an alternative to estimate the serial correlation. The performance of the non-parametric estimator was reasonable only for correlation higher than 0.5, with some improvement for p=0.5.