Bayesian analysis of bilinear time series models : a gibbs sampling approach

Nonlinear time series analysis plays an important role in recent econometric literature, especially the bilinear model. In this paper, we cast the bilinear time series model in a Bayesian framework and make inference by using the Gibbs sampler, a Monte Carlo method. The methodology proposed is illustrated by using generated examples, two real data sets, as well as a simulation study. The results show that the Gibbs sampler provides a very encouraging option in analyzing bilinear time series.     

Taipei,Taiwan: A transformational learning event: Reflecting on the 4th Asian Conference of Academy of Human Resource Development

Abstract

The 4th Asian Conference of the Academy of Human Resource Development held in Taipei, Taiwan, nurtured new learning, networking and international integration. As we reflected upon the experience in Taiwan, the realization was evident that we now view the world from a global perspective. We no longer look at the world through our own country's lenses. Through participation in this transformational learning event, the way we see the world and ourselves has changed as well as enriched our HRD knowledge.     

ASSESSING AND TESTING FOR THRESHOLD NONLINEARITY IN STOCK RETURNS

This paper proposes a test for threshold nonlinearity in a time series with generalized autore‐gressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) volatility dynamics. This test is used to examine whether financial returns on market indices exhibit asymmetric mean and volatility around a threshold value, using a double‐threshold GARCH model. The test adopts the reversible‐jump Markov chain Monte Carlo idea of Green, proposed in 1995, to calculate the posterior probabilities for a conventional GARCH model and a double‐threshold GARCH model. Posterior evidence favouring the threshold GARCH model indicates threshold nonlinearity with asymmetric behaviour of the mean and volatility. Simulation experiments demonstrate that the test works very well in distinguishing between the conventional GARCH and the double‐threshold GARCH models. In an application to eight international financial market indices, including the G‐7 countries, clear evidence supporting the hypothesis of threshold nonlinearity is discovered, simultaneously indicating an uneven mean‐reverting pattern and volatility asymmetry around a threshold return value.     

The ugly scholar: Neocolonialism and ethical issues in international research

As a discipline, sociology has had to confront criticism of the nature and ends of sociological research and ethnical dilemmas in the study of social problems and people. Over time guidelines have appeared to aid in protecting subjects and colleagues (e.g., the ASA Code of Ethics) and to guarantee research standards (e.g., the peer-reviewed proposal process, human subjects committees). However, guidelines tend not to address the challenges sociologists face in international research. This results in unpleasant experiences and potentially endangers research and researcher alike. This articles responds to the gap in the literature on ethical issues in international research. It draws on writings by social scientists and from the author’s experience in Latin America.     

Meeting the needs of the adoption triangle through open adoption: The adoptee

Open adoption offers advantages for adopted persons which are not available in traditional adoption. Having access, to information about their biological heritage allows adopted persons to integrate their adoptive, history with their biological history. This integration enables resolution of normal developmental crisis. Openness also helps facilitate communication between the adoptee and the adoptive parents. Adoptive parents are then able to recognize, and provide support, when their child is grieving the loss of the birthparents.     

The relationship between organizational value sharing and influence over strategic decisions

This study examines the relationship between influence in the strategic decision-making process and the sharing of organizational values. Findings from a quick service restaurant chain indicate that perceptions of value sharing are associated with the ability to influence critical strategic issues. The assessed ability of various corporate departments to influence specific strategic decisions differs according to the type of value shared and the degree of value sharing. Few differences in results exist as a function of value sharing with the top management team (vice presidents) versus value sharing with the founder/CEO. Implications of the results and the need to continue empirical exploration of value-based explanations for strategic decision making are discussed.     

Patriarchy: The Predominant Discourse and Fount of Domestic Violence

While supporting the need to make class and other forms of marginalisation more visible in the understanding of, and response to, domestic violence, this article argues that, domestic violence is ultimately a discursive phenomenon and that patriarchal discourse remains the fount of domestic violence. This conclusion was drawn after data from a qualitative study of 24 men, from different cultural groups (ethnic, religious, racial, age and class), who had used violence in an intimate heterosexual relationship was considered, alongside ethnographical accounts of societies in which domestic violence is deemed not to have occurred, or to have been minimal. Whereas egalitarian and respectful attitudes towards women are enshrined in the discourse and social institutions of tribes such as the Semai and Waorani, in which intimate partner violence was absent, the most overwhelming discovery of the qualitative study was that class and cultural differences, evident in an analysis of the men's narratives, seemed to be eclipsed by the preeminence and strength of gendered discourse, in keeping with Western patriarchal dictates.     

‘That’s definite discrimination’: practice under the umbrella of inclusion

Inclusive practice is well embedded across society and has developed over time. However, although policy and public view have moved forward, the way organisations address the agenda for inclusion often represents a superficial interpretation of this concept. Qualitative data were gathered using new ethnography to explore the experiences of a library-based reading group for visually impaired readers. The voices of the individuals shed light on the individual and collective experience of reading. These insights challenge the traditional views of distinct provision that are designed to address targets for inclusion of individuals with disabilities. We argue for a clearer focus on the unintentional consequences of practice in the name of inclusion that leave individuals feeling marginalised. This paper suggests the alternative focus on social justice as offering a discourse that focuses on society and away from the individual.