Bayesian inference of multiple structural change models with asymmetric GARCH errors

Structural change in any time series is practically unavoidable, and thus correctly detecting breakpoints plays a pivotal role in statistical modelling. This research considers segmented autoregressive models with exogenous variables and asymmetric GARCH errors, GJR-GARCH and exponential-GARCH specifications, which utilize the leverage phenomenon to demonstrate asymmetry in response to positive and negative shocks. The proposed models incorporate skew Student-t distribution and prove the advantages of the fat-tailed skew Student-t distribution versus other distributions when structural changes appear in financial time series. We employ Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in order to make inferences about the locations of structural change points and model parameters and utilize deviance information criterion to determine the optimal number of breakpoints via a sequential approach. Our models can accurately detect the number and locations of structural change points in simulation studies. For real data analysis, we examine the impacts of daily gold returns and VIX on S&P 500 returns during 2007–2019. The proposed methods are able to integrate structural changes through the model parameters and to capture the variability of a financial market more efficiently.

     

Preventing Homelessness due to Domestic Violence: Providing a Safe Space or Closing the Door to New Possibilities?

Domestic violence has been recognized as a major contributory factor to homelessness in the UK and elsewhere, with women more likely to be affected. In the UK and other countries undergoing welfare reform, moves toward 'active citizenship' increase the complexity of the relationship between states and citizens and open up new strategies for both. However, analysts have noted some strategies can create new forms of inequality, including gender-based ones. This article considers the impact of prevention-centred homelessness policy responses to domestic violence, with specific reference to the 'Sanctuary' model. Sanctuary schemes support women facing homelessness due to domestic violence to remain in their current residence, protected against attack from outside the home. Drawing on analysis of the literature and empirical work, we compare the experiences of women who have used traditional forms of support and Sanctuary services. We argue that while the model has the potential to provide greater autonomy to some women in these circumstances, it is not appropriate for all. Increased emphasis on Sanctuary schemes could make it more difficult for women who might prefer to move. We conclude that more attention needs to be paid to addressing the origin of women's homelessness due to domestic violence.     

The Struggle for Housing in Rural Venezuela: Ideology,Practice, and Power1

Abstract Little is known about the struggle for housing in rural areas or whether rural housing standards and aspirations resemble those of urban areas. This article, based on field research in Venezuela, analyzes housing ideology as expressed in public policy and housing programs, and in interviews with and actions of rural leaders, employers, government officials, and citizens. Competing housing ideologies co-exist but one—the cement-block house—dominates; although international and urban in origin, the cement-block model is diffused through rural housing agencies and political agendas. Housing practices are neither consistent with nor weaken the dominant ideology; and some aspects of rural housing conflicts are similar to those in urban settings. These findings support the need for further research to better understand the conditions under which rural and urban housing issues differ.     

Reinventing a medical specialty. Using anesthesiology as a model for change

In only a decade, anesthesiology has reversed its fortunes from an underrepresented specialty in the 1980 Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee report to "a specialty in trouble" featured in The Wall Street Journal. This article focuses on anesthesiology and its work force dilemma as an evolving specialist model for change. What is happening to anesthesiology will not be unique--managed care competition will affect all physicians. Most specialties will have to reshape curricula and redesign education programs and academic delivery systems concentrating on fewer trainees. What are the options for coping with physicians grieving over lost dreams, such as autonomy and solo practice, while redesigning a medical specialty? The authors untangle fact from fear, mission from myth, and offer strategic thinking and solutions.     

Measuring Measurement Error in Economic Time Series

A spectral decomposition method is described for obtaining an upper bound on the amount of measurement error in a time series. The method is applied to generated data and to M1b, real GNP, and the CPI. The bounds provide insight into both the amount of measurement error in these series and the stochastic specification of the errors.     

Working around the Barriers to Creating and Sharing Knowledge in Capital Goods Projects: the Client's Perspective*

The article considers knowledge management issues from the client's perspective. In the example presented, a sludge treatment centre procured by Northumbrian Water Ltd (NWL), the task faced by the client was to manage knowledge in a context where the core technology being procured was new and resulted in the need for new knowledge to be created and shared both pre‐ and post‐delivery. In exploring these issues, the article reveals the problems of (and some solutions to) managing knowledge across the project life‐cycle and between different groups, where the motivation for generating and sharing knowledge was not the same for all participants.     

Alzheimer's Disease Caregiver Burden: Does Resilience Matter?

Caring for an individual with Alzheimer's disease is at times challenging and can lead to caregiver burden. Resilience is a personality characteristic that has emerged as a protective factor among aging individuals. This study was conducted to examine the moderating effect of resilience between caregiver stressors and caregiver burden. The results indicate that resilience was not identified as a moderator between stressors and caregiver burden; however, a relationship exists between resilience and caregiver burden. Specifically, as resilience in Alzheimer's disease caregivers increases, their caregiver burden decreases. These findings highlight the importance of supportive interventions that will increase resilience in Alzheimer's disease caregivers.