Shrinking Kin Networks in Italy Due to Sustained Low Fertility

Among the closely watched demographic trends of thelate 20th Century is a pronounced drop in fertilityrates throughout much of the world. Italy presents aparticularly interesting case for study: in 1960,Italy's TFR was 2.41, whereas by 1995 it had fallen to1.17. According to United Nations projections, by 2050Italy will be the second oldest country in the world,with 3.4 persons aged 60 or older per person under 15years of age. Besides overall population ageing,another implication of sustained low fertility issmaller families and kin groups. We investigate theconsequences of projected changes in Italy's birth anddeath rates on the composition of kin groups usingmicrosimulation techniques. Using a startingpopulation taken from the 1994 ``Indagine Multiscoposulle Famiglie' survey, and projected rates ofmortality and fertility by age and parity produced bythe Italian Institute of Statistics, we simulate thepath of kin-group patterns in Italy during the period1994–2050. While we reproduce the aggregate populationpatterns found in official projections, we conduct ourestimates at the ``micro' level, keeping track of therelationships between individuals that underlie kingroup patterns. We show the effects of the demographictrends on the existence of daughters and sons forolder mothers, on the number of sisters and brotherswith whom an adult woman could share theresponsibilities of caring an elderly mother, and theeffect of the joint action of the increase inlongevity and the mean age at fertility on theproportion of adult women with a living mother.     

The National Health Act

Abstract

While increasing enrolments of international fee-paying students are a feature of the current Australian tertiary system, little research has been undertaken relating to international students studying social work. A national survey of all accredited BSW programs within Australia was undertaken in 1997 with regard to the demographic profile of international students, current provisions for them and perceptions of educators about relevant issues for consideration. The findings of this survey are presented here. Fee-paying international students represented a small proportion of total enrolments within Australian BSW programs in 1997. While educators perceived that these students did have particular educational and social challenges within Australian social work programs, few special considerations were afforded to them, although the literature would encourage us to consider this. Issues relating to the social and cultural construction of Western social work education are discussed, as well as the cultural relevance of Australian social work education for international students intending to practise social work in their countries of origin.     

Developments in National Policies for Food and Nutrition Security in Brazil

Brazil is on track to achieve many of the Millennium Development Goals, and this is widely credited to bold and innovative government policies backed by new forms of popular participation in social policy. This article examines evaluation evidence on two of the most important recent initiatives in Brazil's policies for food and nutrition security (conditional cash transfers through Bolsa Família and support for family agriculture through the Programa de Aquisição de Alimentos). It also considers advances in older policies (such as the School Meals programme) and the work of the National Council for Food and Nutrition Security, which has culminated in national legislation establishing food and nutrition security as a right.     

Learning the two parameters of the Poisson–Dirichlet distribution with a forensic application

In forensic science, the rare type match problem arises when the matching characteristic from the suspect and the crime scene is not in the reference database; hence, it is difficult to evaluate the likelihood ratio that compares the defense and prosecution hypotheses. A recent solution consists of modeling the ordered population probabilities according to the two-parameter Poisson–Dirichlet distribution, which is a well-known Bayesian nonparametric prior, and plugging the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters into the likelihood ratio. We demonstrate that this approximation produces a systematic bias that fully Bayesian inference avoids. Motivated by this forensic application, we consider the need to learn the posterior distribution of the parameters that governs the two-parameter Poisson–Dirichlet using two sampling methods: Markov Chain Monte Carlo and approximate Bayesian computation. These methods are evaluated in terms of accuracy and efficiency. Finally, we compare the likelihood ratio that is obtained by our proposal with the existing solution using a database of Y-chromosome haplotypes.     

From Drama Text to Stage Text: Transitions of Text Understanding in a Student Theatre Production

Exploring how text understanding evolves through interaction in a drama-text-based student theatre production, the present study takes its theoretical point of departure in sociocultural and dialogical approaches to meaning making and creativity. Video data from a Swedish upper secondary school allowed us to follow transitions of text understanding in the artistic shaping of characters from drama text to stage text. We analyze a special kind of communicative side project: short, recurrent student-initiated role-plays, embedded in teacher-led activities. The joint text understanding that was established in these side projects proved productive in the emergent shaping of the stage text.     

Towards Body–Mind–Spirit Integration: East Meets West in Clinical Social Work Practice

Contemporary trends in clinical practice are moving more toward an integrative approach that views the mind, the body and the spirit as inter-connected entities. There is an increasing interest in approaches that utilize physical, cognitive, emotional and spiritual components in assessment and treatment. This paper presents an integrative body–mind–spirit approach in clinical social work practice which is informed by the Eastern philosophical traditions of Daoism, Buddhism, and Traditional Chinese Medicine. Our work with a bereaved elderly woman is presented to illustrate how the three key intervention principles: (1) promoting a dynamic balance within the individual through multi-modal intervention; (2) fostering strengths; and (3) facilitating meaning-making can be effective in helping people in a clinical setting.     

Old and novel methods for estimating Feral Pigeons (Columba livia f. domestica) population size: a reply to Amoruso et al. (2013)

In a recent paper Amoruso et al. (2013) proposed a novel method for estimating population size of Feral Pigeons, the Superimposed Urban Strata (SUS) method. In our reply we firstly comment on the lack of a complete review of the available literature. Secondly we point out that the SUS method does not account for birds detection probability and thus it is just a simple index of abundance as many others proposed in recent years. Thirdly, we question the approach used by the authors to evaluate the reliability of their method. To conclude, we believe that the SUS method is not truly innovative and that further investigations are needed before considering it as a reliable way for estimating Feral Pigeons populations size.