The use of finite mixture models to estimate the distribution of the health utilities index in the presence of a ceiling effect

Finite mixture models are flexible parametric models that allow one to describe complex probability distributions as a mixture of a small number of simple probability distributions. Measures of health status are often used to reflect a person's overall health. Such measures may be subject to a ceiling effect, in that the measure is unable to discern gradations in health status above the ceiling. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the use of finite mixture models to describe the probability distribution of the Health Utilities Index, under the assumption that the HUI is subject to a ceiling effect. Mixture models with two through six components are fit to the HUI. Bayes factors were used to compare the evidence that the Canadian population of non-institutionalized residents is composed of four distinct subpopulations, and that a mixture of six Normal components is required to describe these four subpopulations.     

A general algorithm for computing simultaneous prediction intervals for the (log)-location-scale family of distributions

Making predictions of future realized values of random variables based on currently available data is a frequent task in statistical applications. In some applications, the interest is to obtain a two-sided simultaneous prediction interval (SPI) to contain at least k out of m future observations with a certain confidence level based on n previous observations from the same distribution. A closely related problem is to obtain a one-sided upper (or lower) simultaneous prediction bound (SPB) to exceed (or be exceeded) by at least k out of m future observations. In this paper, we provide a general approach for computing SPIs and SPBs based on data from a particular member of the (log)-location-scale family of distributions with complete or right censored data. The proposed simulation-based procedure can provide exact coverage probability for complete and Type II censored data. For Type I censored data, our simulation results show that our procedure provides satisfactory results in small samples. We use three applications to illustrate the proposed simultaneous prediction intervals and bounds.     

发展的历史, 现代性的困境———以批判性的发展研究视角审视全球化

文章旨在通过回顾批判性发展研究以及有关现代性的争论中历史的和现今的主要趋势,借以构想对中国农村发展研究有所启迪的相关问题。同时,本文简要地呈现了一个哥伦比亚地区雨林保护的案例研究。文章第一部分从话语与社会实践的维度对发展进行了历史回顾,指出发展不仅是近代以来（二战以后）的产物,且具有更深远的历史渊源（植根于欧洲现代性）,并以探讨后发展、另类现代性、非现代性等概念作为小结。文章第二部分关于哥伦比亚的案例研究,介绍了该地区某社会运动如何构建自身的政治生态,并一度对该地区的发展方向产生重大影响。文章第三部分提出了一个大纲式框架,旨在从生态、文化和经济差异的角度思辨发展。作为结论,本文提出了一些可能与中国农村发展具有相关性的问题。     

Analyse diachronique d'un conseil traditionnel (Colombie)*

This paper is concerned with the role of the traditional council of authorities (cabildo) in a Columbian community of Indian origin. It is shown that its evolution reflects that of the community, since the cabildo has always been essentially an interaction mechanism between the community and the external society, more than the head of an autonomous body. Moreover, this mechanism has mostly been a tool, in the hands of the colonial and, later, national upper class, for manipulating the Indians. The institution was first imposed upon the Indians to ensure their political submission to and economic integration into colonial capitalistic society. In Columbia, this leads to a relatively rapid acculturation of the Indians. During the Republic, a major change occurred when the national economy ceased to rest upon a tributary exploitation of the Indians: landlord/tenant relationships made local community structures useless. Many managed to survive, though, when they were able to keep a certain amount of land on which their members could lead an independent life. The community under study was among these, although its lands were drastically reduced (the better parts being grabbed by adjacent landowners). The local authorities, left without any power to stop these abuses, saw their roles confined to the solution of internal petty disputes. From 1920 on, the further integration of the community in the national economy, through intensive cash-cropping, has gradually made even this reduced role redundant. The author believes that in the study of peasant political systems, a diachronic study of the interrelationships between the economic and the political level is necessary if the understanding is to be complete.     

Cognitive-Behavioral Interventions for Anxiety Disorders: Rapid Review Suggestion of Larger Effects among Hispanic than Non-Hispanic White People

ABSTRACT

Anxiety disorders are common among Hispanic people. Evidence-based guidelines indicate cognitive-behavioral interventions (CBI), but they were developed primarily with non-Hispanic white (NHW) people. This rapid scoping review and meta-analysis clarified the relative effectiveness of CBI with Hispanics and NHW people with anxiety disorders and explored the clinical effects of cultural modifications among Hispanic people. Evidence from nine studies in the United States and one in Puerto Rico was synthesized. Meta-analysis of four randomized controlled trials (RCT) found no statistically or practically significant differences between Hispanic and NHW participants on anxiety alleviation. Both groups enjoyed large clinical benefits. However, a significantly greater drop-out rate among Hispanic participants was found. Meta-analytic adjustment for this study characteristic of loss to follow-up suggested a somewhat larger clinical benefit among NHW people. Scoping synthesis of six non-RCTs suggested that deep cultural adaptations of CBI would substantially improve outcomes among Hispanic people. Consistent with Hispanic-paradox and barrio advantage theories such culturally sensitive interventions may well take beneficial Hispanic outcomes beyond those of NHW people. This field's synthetic knowledge, therefore, essentially consists of two competing hypotheses that will require rigorous testing with a necessarily larger and better controlled RCT than has been represented in this field thus far.     

Influence of water quality and habitat conditions on amphibian community metrics in rivers affected by urban activity

Urban Ecosystems - Anuran amphibians are highly dependent on aquatic ecosystems. Many amphibian species are exhibiting population declines primarily due to habitat destruction and water quality...     

Cemeteries and biodiversity conservation in cities: how do landscape and patch-level attributes influence bird diversity in urban park cemeteries?

Urban Ecosystems - Cemeteries can help conserve biodiversity in urban landscapes, but their capacity to support native species is likely to be influenced by variables at different spatial scales....     

Immigrant Transnational Organizations and Development: A Comparative Study1

This article explores how ninety Colombian, Dominican, and Mexican transnational immigrant organizations pursue philanthropic projects that aid in the development of their country or community of origin. We find that each nationality's context of exit and reception affects the origin, strength, and character of their organizations. We produce “maps” of the interaction of transnational organizations with each country of origin and conduct multivariate regressions to establish determinants of key organizational characteristics, including their degree of formalization and form of creation. Generally, Colombian organizations assume more middle‐class forms, Dominican organizations stem largely from politics in the country of origin, and Mexican organizations are primarily hometown associations with greater involvement of the national state. We observe that regardless of nationality, transnational immigrant organizations’ members are older, better‐established, and possess above‐average levels of education, suggesting that participation in transnational activities and assimilation are not incompatible. The character of proactive activities by each national state are examined. Theoretical implications for immigrant adaptation and community/national development are discussed.