Accounting for Sustained Volunteering by Young People: An Expanded TPB

This study tested an expanded TBP model, which included personal norms and self-identity as cognitive variables, in a sample of current young volunteers of a general charity in the UK. Actual volunteering was measured via continued observation throughout the duration of the projects. An integrative model of sustained volunteering was proposed because some relationships did not follow the hypothesized paths. Subjective norm emerged as the exclusive determinant of sustained volunteering and also as the potential mediator of the effects of other variables over future volunteering behavior. Two focus groups with volunteers and 28 personal interviews with the coordinators of the volunteering projects were conducted to triangulate the research findings and reveal the main causes for drop-outs and non-attendance.     

Creatively prototyping the future high street

Abstract

This paper gives a voice to a range of community and individual stakeholders who would not generally be heard in the conventional town planning process. We present a methodological technique, described as creative prototyping, that has at its heart, the capability to enable full stakeholder inclusivity into the future imagining of the smart city. Actively involving these individuals and community representatives in the research process enables deeper understanding of how technology and people can interact productively to create smart cities that are socially inclusive while still being commercially relevant. The research data for this paper are drawn from the findings of a workshop conducted by the authors that utilised Science Fiction Prototyping and Lego Serious Play. This research activity was driven by questions focusing upon the current complex interplay and tensions of technology and the UK’s physical high street. We first explore these issues theoretically in previous literature and then drawn upon this review to analyse the outcomes of the workshop. Three themes emerge from this analysis that have operational and strategic relevance to the development of future high streets; the importance of ever present but invisible technology, the forefronting of people in the smart city and the need for wide-ranging stakeholder input and participation into planning. The findings also illustrate that not all future imaginings of the retail high street are immediately practical or realistically applicable. However, in examining the many issues facing the current high street and in negotiating the multiplicity of voices with their competing demands and expectations, we offer the conclusion that the future smart city must become a place of truly shared sociality – rather than just mere proximity, customised convenience or a concentration point for multiple forms of entertainment.     

The Effects of a Point-of-Purchase Display on Relative Sales: An In-Store Experimental Evaluation

An in-store experiment was performed to investigate the effects of a point-of-purchase display on unit sales of dishwashing liquid. The experimental conditions consisted of periodically placing two copies of the same display in convenience stores and supermarkets. The results were unanticipated; point-of-purchase displays did not change relative sales of the target brand. An antecedent intervention such as a point-of-purchase informational display is not sufficient to change consumer choice in the presence of utilitarian reinforcement in the form of a lower-priced competing product.     

A note on a family of criteria for evaluating test statistics

ABSTRACT

In noting that the usual criteria for choosing an optimal test, Uniform Power and Local Power are at opposite ends of a spectrum of dominance criteria, a complete “Power Dominance” family of criteria for classifying and choosing optimal tests on the basis of their power characteristics is identified, wherein successive orders of dominance attach increasing weight to power close to the null hypothesis. Indices of the extent to which a preferred test has superior power characteristics over other members in its class, and an index of the proximity of a test to the envelope function of alternative tests are also provided. The ideas are exemplified using various optimal test statistics for Normal and Laplace population distributions.     

Analytic computation of nonparametric Marsan–Lengliné estimates for Hawkes point processes

In 2008, Marsan and Lengliné presented a nonparametric way to estimate the triggering function of a Hawkes process. Their method requires an iterative and computationally intensive procedure which ultimately produces only approximate maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) whose asymptotic properties are poorly understood. Here, we note a mathematical curiosity that allows one to compute, directly and extremely rapidly, exact MLEs of the nonparametric triggering function. The method here requires that the number q of intervals on which the nonparametric estimate is sought equals the number n of observed points. The resulting estimates have very high variance but may be smoothed to form more stable estimates. The performance and computational efficiency of the proposed method is verified in two disparate, highly challenging simulation scenarios: first to estimate the triggering functions, with simulation-based 95% confidence bands, for earthquakes and their aftershocks in Loma Prieta, California, and second, to characterise triggering in confirmed cases of plague in the United States over the last century. In both cases, the proposed estimator can be used to describe the rate of contagion of the processes in detail, and the computational efficiency of the estimator facilitates the construction of simulation-based confidence intervals.     

A proposal for a new PhD level curriculum on quantitative methods for drug development

This paper provides an overview of “Improving Design, Evaluation and Analysis of early drug development Studies” (IDEAS), a European Commission–funded network bringing together leading academic institutions and small‐ to large‐sized pharmaceutical companies to train a cohort of graduate‐level medical statisticians. The network is composed of a diverse mix of public and private sector partners spread across Europe, which will host 14 early‐stage researchers for 36 months. IDEAS training activities are composed of a well‐rounded mixture of specialist methodological components and generic transferable skills. Particular attention is paid to fostering collaborations between researchers and supervisors, which span academia and the private sector. Within this paper, we review existing medical statistics programmes (MSc and PhD) and highlight the training they provide on skills relevant to drug development. Motivated by this review and our experiences with the IDEAS project, we propose a concept for a joint, harmonised European PhD programme to train statisticians in quantitative methods for drug development.     

CONCEPTUAL LEVELS AND THE DESIGN OF ACCOUNTING INFORMATION SYSTEMS*

This article attempts to expand and clarify the discussions in the literature on complexity theory applied to accounting via two central assertions: (a) affecting the cognitive conceptual level of an individual through the financial reporting system can be accomplished not only by varying the immediate information load, but also, in the long run, by modifying the types of information and the mode of user-system interface. In other words, a properly designed accounting information system can have developmental cognitive effects in both the short and long run. (b) attempting to maximize the conceptual level of the decision maker is not always desirable. In certain types of environments, a high conceptual level actually impedes appropriate decision making. Therefore, the appropriate conceptual level must be related to the type of decision being made as well as to the type of decision maker.     

Early teen marriage and future poverty

Both early teen marriage and dropping out of high school have historically been associated with a variety of negative outcomes, including higher poverty rates throughout life. Are these negative outcomes due to preexisting differences, or do they represent the causal effect of marriage and schooling choices? To better understand the true personal and societal consequences, in this article, I use an instrumental variables (IV) approach that takes advantage of variation in state laws regulating the age at which individuals are allowed to marry, drop out of school, and begin work. The baseline IV estimate indicates that a woman who marries young is 31 percentage points more likely to live in poverty when she is older. Similarly, a woman who drops out of school is 11 percentage points more likely to be poor. The results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications and estimation methods, including limited information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimation and a control function approach. While grouped ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates for the early teen marriage variable are also large, OLS estimates based on individual-level data are small, consistent with a large amount of measurement error.Historically, individuals were allowed to enter into a marriage contract at a very young age. In Ancient Rome, the appropriate minimum age was regarded as 14 for males and 12 for females. When Rome became Christianized, these age minimums were adopted into the ecclesiastical law of the Catholic Church. This canon law governed most marriages in Western Europe until the Reformation. When England broke away from the Catholic Church, the Anglican Church carried with it the same minimum age requirements for the prospective bride and groom. The minimum age requirements of 12 and 14 were eventually written into English civil law. By default, these provisions became the minimum marriage ages in colonial America. These common laws inherited from the British remained in force in America unless a specific state law was enacted to replace them (see “Marriage Law,” Encyclopædia Britannica 2005; http://www.britannica.com).While Roman, Catholic, English, and early American law may have allowed marriage at 12 for girls and 14 for boys, many questioned the advisability of such early unions. Researchers and policymakers around the turn of the twentieth century recognized that teens may be especially ill-prepared to assume the familial responsibilities and financial pressures associated with marriage.¹ As a result of the changing economic and social landscape of the United States, in the latter part of the nineteenth century and throughout the twentieth century, individual states began to slowly raise the minimum legal age at which individuals were allowed to marry. In the United States, as in most developed countries, age restrictions have been revised upward so that they are now between 15 and 21 years of age.During this same time period, dramatic changes were also occurring in the educational system of the United States (see Goldin 1998, 1999; Goldin and Katz 1997, 2003; Lleras-Muney 2002). Free public schooling at the elementary level spread across the United States in the middle of the nineteenth century, and free secondary schooling proliferated in the early part of the twentieth century. As secondary schooling became more commonplace, states began to pass compulsory schooling laws. States often also passed child labor laws that stipulated minimum age or schooling requirements before a work permit would be granted. These state-specific compulsory schooling and child labor laws are correlated with the legal restrictions on marriage age, indicating that it might be important to consider the impact of all the laws simultaneously.There are at least two rationales often given for the use of state laws as policy instruments to limit teenagers’ choices. The first argument is that teens do not accurately compare short-run benefits versus long-run costs. If teens are making myopic decisions, restrictive state laws could prevent decisions they will later regret. It is also argued that the adverse effects associated with teenagers’ choices impose external costs on the rest of society. If these effects can be prevented, external costs (such as higher welfare expenditures) would also argue for restrictive state laws. Both teenage marriage and dropping out of high school are closely associated with a variety of negative outcomes, including poverty later in life. To assess the relevance of either argument, however, it is important to know whether the observed effects are causal.Any observed negative effects may be due to preexisting differences rather than a causal relationship between teen marriage (or schooling choices) and adverse adult outcomes. Women who marry as teens or drop out of school may come from more disadvantaged backgrounds or possess other unobserved characteristics that would naturally lead to worse outcomes. For example, teens choosing to marry young might have lower unobserved earnings ability, making it hard to draw conclusions about the causal relationship between teenage marriage and poverty.To identify the effect of a teenager’s marriage and schooling choices on future poverty, I use state-specific marriage, schooling, and child labor laws as instruments. Variation in these laws across states and over time can be used to identify the causal impact that teen marriage and high school completion have on future economic well-being. Although compulsory schooling laws have been used as instruments in a variety of settings, this appears to be the first time marriage laws have been used as instruments. The idea of the marriage law instrument is that states with restrictive marriage laws will prevent some teenagers from marrying who would have married young had they lived in a state with more permissive laws.Using the marriage, schooling, and labor laws affecting teens as instruments for early marriage and high school completion, I find strong negative effects for both variables on future poverty status. The baseline instrumental variables (IV) estimates imply that a woman who marries young is 31 percentage points more likely to live in poverty when she is older. Similarly, a woman who drops out of school is 11 percentage points more likely to be living in a family whose income is below the poverty line. The IV results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications and estimation methods, including limited information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimation and a control function approach. In comparison, the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates are very sensitive to how the data is aggregated, particularly for the early marriage variable. OLS estimates using grouped data are also large, while OLS estimates using individual-level data indicate a small effect for early teen marriage. Auxiliary data indicate a large amount of measurement error in the early marriage variable, suggesting the presence of attenuation bias in the individual-level OLS estimates.The remainder of the article proceeds as follows. I first briefly review the negative outcomes associated with teenage marriage and dropping out of school and discuss alternative perspectives on why teens might make these decisions. The following section describes the data and presents OLS estimates. The next section discusses the early marriage, compulsory schooling, and child labor laws that will be used as instruments. I then present the instrumental variable estimates and conduct several specification and robustness checks, including a discussion of measurement error issues and a reconciliation with the literature on teenage childbearing.     

Risk Factors for Problem Gambling Among Indigenous Australians: An Empirical Study

Despite a long history of gambling amongst many Indigenous peoples, knowledge about contemporary Indigenous gambling is sparse. In Australia, previous studies of Indigenous gambling have been severely limited in number, scope and rigour. The research reported in this paper is based on the first Indigenous-specific quantitative gambling research undertaken in Australia since 1996 and draws on the largest sample to date. This study examined numerous aspects of gambling among Indigenous Australians. After appropriate consultations and permission, the study collected surveys from 1,259 self-selected Indigenous adults in 2011 at three Indigenous festivals, online and in several Indigenous communities. This paper draws on these data to identify problem gambling risk factors by comparing selected socio-demographic characteristics, early exposure to gambling, gambling motivations, gambling behaviour, gambling cognitions, and substance use while gambling, amongst non-problem, low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers. A logistic regression investigated the difference between problem gamblers and all other PGSI groups. Risk factors associated with being a problem gambler were: being older, commencing gambling when under 10 years old, always being exposed to adults gambling as a child, using alcohol and/or drugs while gambling, having family and friends who gamble, having an addiction to gambling and not gambling to socialise, having a high expenditure on commercial gambling, and living in a state or territory other than NSW or QLD. Public health measures to address these risk factors are identified.