试析以人民为中心思想的理论基础——以马克思主义理论为视角

以人民为中心思想是习近平新时代中国特色社会主义理论的重要组成部分,既是对马克思主义理论人民立场的继承与发展,又是紧密结合新的时代特征和实践要求的理论创新成果。中国共产党是马克思主义政党,中国共产党坚持马克思主义理论就必须以人民为中心。中国共产党的初心和使命就是为人民谋幸福,为中华民族谋复兴。中国共产党在中国近现代史上始终践行了马克思主义人民性的理论品格。中国特色社会主义进入新时代后,我国社会的主要矛盾已经变成人民日益增长的美好生活需要和不平衡不充分的发展之间的矛盾,中国共产党作为马克思主义执政党,只有始终坚持以人民为中心,只有始终坚持走中国特色社会主义道路,才能永远代表并最终实现中国人民的根本利益。     

彝文研究的踵武增华——评马锦卫教授《彝文起源及其发展考论》

彝族的文字,是我国古文字体系中一种较为古老的象形文字。关于彝文的起源、彝文的性质、彝文的构形法、彝文的规范、彝文与甲骨文的关系等诸多问题,前辈学者作过比较深人的研究和讨论,尽管如此,留给后人再思考问题依然很多。     

Time Series Modeling of Degradation Due to Outdoor Weathering

Environmental variables have an important effect on the reliability of many products such as coatings and polymeric composites. Long-term prediction of the performance or service life of such products must take into account the probabilistic/stochastic nature of the outdoor weather. In this article, we propose a time series modeling procedure to model the time series data of daily accumulated degradation. Daily accumulated degradation is the total amount of degradation accrued within one day and can be obtained by using a degradation rate model for the product and the weather data. The fitted model of the time series can then be used to estimate the future distribution of cumulative degradation over a period of time, and to compute reliability measures such as the probability of failure. The modeling technique and estimation method are illustrated using the degradation of a solar reflector material. We also provide a method to construct approximate confidence intervals for the probability of failure.     

Discrimination of AR,MA and ARMA time series models

The problem of discrimination between two stationary ARMA time series models is considered, and in particular AR(p), MA(p), ARMA(1,1) models. The discriminant based on the likelihood ration leads to a quadratic form that is generally too complicated to evaluated explicitly. The discriminant can be expressed approximately as a linear combination of independent chi–squared random varianles each with one degree of freedom, the coefficients, of which are eigenvalues of cumbersome matrices. An analytical solution which gives the coefficients approximately is suggested.     

Vector random fields with compactly supported covariance matrix functions

The objective of this paper is to construct covariance matrix functions whose entries are compactly supported, and to use them as building blocks to formulate other covariance matrix functions for second-order vector stochastic processes or random fields. In terms of the scale mixture of compactly supported covariance matrix functions, we derive a class of second-order vector stochastic processes on the real line whose direct and cross covariance functions are of Pólya type. Then some second-order vector random fields in R^d${\mathbb{R}}^d$ whose direct and cross covariance functions are compactly supported are constructed by using a convolution approach and a mixture approach.     

Darling–Erdős limit results for change-point detection in panel data

We wish to test the null hypothesis if the means of N panels remain the same during the observation period of length T. A quasi-likelihood argument leads to self-normalized statistics whose limit distribution under the null hypothesis is double exponential. The main results are derived assuming that the each panel is based on independent observations and then extended to linear processes. The proofs are based on an approximation of the sum of squared CUSUM processes using the Skorokhod embedding scheme. A simulation study illustrates that our results can be used in case of small and moderate N and T. We apply our results to detect change in the “corruption index”.     

Long memory stochastic volatility : A bayesian approach

We propose a simulation-based Bayesian approach to the analysis of long memory stochastic volatility models, stationary and nonstationary. The main tool used to reduce the likelihood function to a tractable form is an approximate state-space representation of the model, A data set of stock market returns is analyzed with the proposed method. The approach taken here allows a quantitative assessment of the empirical evidence in favor of the stationarity, or nonstationarity, of the instantaneous volatility of the data.     

Optimal designs for experiments with mixtures: a survey

This is a survey article on known results about analytic solutions and numerical solutions of optimal designs for various regression models for experiments with mixtures. The regression models include polynomial models, models containing homogeneous functions, models containing inverse terms and ratios, log contrast models, models with quantitative variables, and mod els containing the amount of mixture, Optimality criteria considered include D-, A-, E-,φ_p- and I_λ-Optimalities. Uniform design and uniform optimal design for mixture components, and efficiencies of the {q,2} simplex-controid design are briefly discussed.     

认同的螺旋：本科护生临床职业认同形成机制研究

文章基于过程性角色理论形成职业认同循环模型,在角色期望、角色领悟及角色实践三阶段探究本科护生临床职业认同的形成机制,探索其职业认同形成过程中的阻碍和促进因素及职业认同建构结果。结果发现,角色固化、职业价值低、职业支持不足是本科护生职业认同的阻碍因素,促进因素包括自我期望、护理榜样、临床适应力,最终形成参与者和旁观者两种职业认同结果。本科护生职业认同的形成过程体现了在护理职业现代化转型中,传统社会结构与护生个体意识的博弈过程。尽管面临护士职业历史与现实双向维度的职业认同困境,但是大部分本科护生还是展示出了积极的角色实践姿态,产生新的角色期望,形成螺旋上升的职业认同格局。