Natality and ethnocentrism: Some relationships suggested by an analysis of catholic-protestant differentials

Abstract At the time of writing, the Roman Catholic Church is engaged in a major re-evaluation of its position on contraception. Judging from newspaper interest, there exists a widespread assumption that Catholic teaching, together with the political and social influence of the Catholic clergy, is an important deterrent to the practice of contraception and, for that reason, to the reduction of human natality.     

Driving Through the Fog: Managing at the Edge

Although the periphery does not occupy the centre of our attention, it should be ignored at our peril. This paper gives many examples of companies that have been heavily influenced by peripheral events, whether they started out there, or whether they hopelessly misread the oncoming signals. It argues that a monitoring of the periphery can help diffuse small problems before they becomes crises. It provides a roadmap for organisations by describing how to define the field of view and how to assess the signals from it.     

Bayesian projection of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome epidemic

Short-term projections of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic in England and Wales have been regularly updated since the publication of the Cox report in 1988. The key approach for those updates has been the back-calculation method, which has been informally adapted to acknowledge various sources of uncertainty as well as to incorporate increasingly available information on the spread of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the population. We propose a Bayesian formulation of the back-calculation method which allows a formal treatment of uncertainty and the inclusion of extra information, within a single coherent composite model. Estimation of the variably dimensioned model is carried out by using reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Application of the model to data for homosexual and bisexual males in England and Wales is presented, and the role of the various sources of information and model assumptions is appraised. Our results show a massive peak in HIV infections around 1983 and suggest that the incidence of AIDS has now reached a plateau, although there is still substantial uncertainty about the future.     

Acquired immune deficiency syndrome predictions for England and Wales (1992-97): sensitivity analysis,information, decision

Some implications of the use of the back-calculation method for estimating future trends in HIV infections and AIDS incidence in England and Wales are explored. "This paper explores in...detail some aspects of the latest projections which have only been hinted at in the report published by the Public Health Laboratory Service in 1993. The value of additional information on the HIV epidemic in discriminating between different, otherwise equally plausible, scenarios is demonstrated. The role of the backcalculation approach in determining whether, and how, the incubation distribution has been affected by increased uptake of pre-AIDS prophylaxis and treatment is discussed."     

Effects of Employment-Based Programs on Families by Prior Levels of Disadvantage

This study examines how welfare and employment policies affect subpopulations of low-income families that have different levels of initial disadvantage. Education, prior earnings, and welfare receipt are used to measure disadvantage. The analysis of data from experiments suggests that employment-based programs have no effects on economic well-being among the least-disadvantaged low-income, single-parent families, but they have positive effects on employment and income for the most-disadvantaged and moderately disadvantaged families. These programs increase school achievement and enrollment in center-based child care of children only in moderately disadvantaged families. The most-disadvantaged families are found to increase use of child care that is not center based. Parents in these families experience depressive symptoms and aggravation. The findings raise questions about how to support families at the lowest end of the economic spectrum.     

The Role of Debt Contracts in UK Corporate Governance

The model of managerial incentives used in Positive Accounting Theory sees debt contracts as important in accounting choices in firms. The paper argues that agency theory and costly contracting theory imply a much wider role for debt contracts as corporate governance mechanisms for controlling relationships between lenders and firms. We analyse the creditor's problem in providing debt to the firm in terms of anticipated agency costs. This analysis leads to a consideration of contracting solutions involving the choice of debt contract terms providing credit protections which are efficient in agency cost and contracting cost terms.The model of debt contracts accepted in the literature is based upon US research, both theoretical and empirical, and thus reflects US institutional experience. This model involves detailed bonding and monitoring terms focusing upon financial and other covenants and implies customisation of such terms to meet creditors' contracting requirements. The paper reviews evidence on the applicability of this model in practice and concludes that, despite broad similarities, institutional biases are present if the model is applied to countries other than the US. We examine evidence on UK debt contracting practices, in particular contract form and content, types of covenant, lenders' perceptions of the role of covenants as control mechanisms, and the issue of standardisation versus customisation. The paper identifies important differences in debt contracting in the UK, for example in types of covenants and the role perceived for them by creditors and identifies standardisation in contract terms as being more common than often implied by other research.     

Relationship marketing: Its key role in entrepreneurship

The authors argue that relationship marketing can readily be adopted by a small entrepreneurial business but it will need to be adapted to the entrepreneurial environment into which it is introduced. Results from initial research suggest that entrepreneurial enterprises employ relationship marketing more effectively than less entrepreneurial organisations and they derive commercial benefits such as higher growth rates and fewer customer defections. The authors argue that entrepreneurship can be learned and so less entrepreneurial firms have the potential to learn from more successful entrepreneurs. They offer some specific recommendations but they recognise that the task is not easy because the SME has to create an internal culture that is capable of both embracing relationship marketing and being alert to opportunity.