Inference for comparing a multinomial distribution with a known standard

We propose a new type of stochastic ordering which imposes a monotone tendency in differences between one multinomial probability and a known standard one. An estimation procedure is proposed for the constrained maximum likelihood estimate, and then the asymptotic null distribution is derived for the likelihood ratio test statistic for testing equality of two multinomial distributions against the new stochastic ordering. An alternative test is also discussed based on Neyman modified minimum chi-square estimator. These tests are illustrated with a set of heart disease data.     

The Access/Impact Problem and the Green and Gold Roads to Open Access: An Update

The research access/impact problem arises because journal articles are not accessible to all of their would-be users; hence, they are losing potential research impact. The solution is to make all articles open access (OA, i.e., accessible online, free for all). OA articles have significantly higher citation impact than non-OA articles. There are two roads to OA: the “golden” road (publish your article in an OA journal) and the “green” road (publish your article in a non-OA journal but also self-archive it in an OA archive). About 10% of journals are gold, but over 90% are already green (i.e., they have given their authors the green light to self-archive); yet only about 10–20% of articles have been self-archived. To reach 100% OA, self-archiving needs to be mandated by researchers’ employers and funders, as they are now increasingly beginning to do.     

Estimation for two-way analysis of variance with correlated errors

We consider some estimation and distribution problems encountered in a two way analysis of variance model with only one observation per cell, errors correlated in one level, and the variances are not necessarily equal. The independence criteria for the row and interaction mean sum of squares and distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the correlation coefficient are given.     

Critical values and powers for tests of uniformity of directions under multivariate normality

The Rayleigh, Ajne, Giné and two new tests of uniformity of directions are investigated as tests for multivariate normality when the population mean vector and covariance matrix are assumed to be unknown. The new tests include one which is designed especially to detect for bimodal alternatives and one which is designed to perform well under a wide variety of alternatives. Simulated percentile points are obtained under the assumption that the variates constitute a random sample from a multivariate normal distribution. Powers of the five tests are compared under alternatives in the bivariate as well as higher dimensional settings.     

On the consistency of rank transformed regression

Rank-transformed regression (RTR) was proposed by Iman and Conover (1979) as an alternative to isotonic regression. This paper studies the consistency of the estimate obtained by RTR and show that, in general case, the estimate is not mean-square-error (MSE) consistent. The bias of the estimate is also studied by simulation.     

The Time-Varying-Parameter Model for Modeling Changing Conditional Variance: The Case of the Lucas Hypothesis

The main econometric issue in testing the Lucas (1973) hypothesis in a time series context is estimation of the forecast-error variance conditional on past information. The conditional variance may vary through time as monetary policy evolves and agents are obliged to infer its present state. Under the assumption that a monetary policy regime is continuously changing, a time-varying-parameter model is proposed for the monetary-growth function. Based on Kalman-filtering estimation of recursive forecast errors and their conditional variances, the Lucas hypothesis is tested for the U.S. economy (1964:1–1985:4) using monetary growth as aggregate demand variable. The Lucas hypothesis is rejected in favor of Friedman's (1977) hypothesis—the conditional variance of monetary growth affects real output directly, not through the coefficients on the forecast-error term in the Lucas-type output equation.     

On the distribution of a new measure of heaviness of tails

Distributional properties are given for a statistic T*, which has previously been reported to have power properties as a test of normality as attractive as those of the sample kurtosis or perhaps slightly more attractive. Asymptotic results, the mean and variance under normality, the range of variation, and approximation of critical values for testing normality are obtained     

Use of a more general model for bioavailability studies

Use of a multivariate model for bioavailability crossover studies is discussed. The model affords a convenient way to obtain from untransformed data exact confidence intervals and general hypothesis tests for ratios that are pertinent for comparing formulations. Previously, confidence intervals for the case of a two period study of two formulations have been presented. This paper treats the case of three or more formulations in a study in which each subject receives each formulation. The model requires weaker assumptions than the assumptions of other models that have been commonly used. In addition to inferences on ratios, it is pointed out how to obtain from the model tests of the hypotheses of equal formulation effects, equal period effects, and equal sequence effects. The use of these concepts for studies in which a formulation is received more than once by subjects isalso discussed.     

Laowai as a discourse of Othering: unnoticed stereotyping of American expatriates in Mainland China

ABSTRACT

Homogeneous ethnic labels, deriving from migrants’ phenotypic and cultural distinctness, are frequently utilised to single them out as the Other during intercultural encounters. Nonetheless, the Othering enacted by ethnic labelling has not attracted enough attention from host-nationals who use these labels. In-depth interviews with 35 American expatriates revealed that laowai was perceived as a discourse of Othering, which first categorised Westerners under this label as the Other in mainland China for their noticeable non-Chinese physical appearance, and then exposed them to its Chinese users’ diversely motivated stereotyping in such forms as exclusion, alienation and discrimination. However, Chinese people had not noticed laowai’s nature of being a stereotype-laden discourse of Othering and conversely considered this label as a neutral and even friendly expression. Ultimately, these Americans experienced Chinese people’s habitual use of laowai as a way to separate them as permanent outsiders who were subject to Occidentalism in mainland China.     

Trial Size for Near-Optimal Choice Between Surveillance and Aggressive Treatment: Reconsidering MSLT-II

Abstract

A convention in designing randomized clinical trials has been to choose sample sizes that yield specified statistical power when testing hypotheses about treatment response. Manski and Tetenov recently critiqued this convention and proposed enrollment of sufficiently many subjects to enable near-optimal treatment choices. This article develops a refined version of that analysis applicable to trials comparing aggressive treatment of patients with surveillance. The need for a refined analysis arises because the earlier work assumed that there is only a primary health outcome of interest, without secondary outcomes. An important aspect of choice between surveillance and aggressive treatment is that the latter may have side effects. One should then consider how the primary outcome and side effects jointly determine patient welfare. This requires new analysis of sample design. As a case study, we reconsider a trial comparing nodal observation and lymph node dissection when treating patients with cutaneous melanoma. Using a statistical power calculation, the investigators assigned 971 patients to dissection and 968 to observation. We conclude that assigning 244 patients to each option would yield findings that enable suitably near-optimal treatment choice. Thus, a much smaller sample size would have sufficed to inform clinical practice.