Funding large-scale qualitative sociology

Myrna Silverman, Edward Mulvey, and Barry Glassner helped us with thoughtful critiques of earlier drafts.     

Fertility and Culture in Eastern Europe: A Case Study of Riga, Latvia, 1867–1881

Recent research on the secular decline of fertility in historical Europe has focused on cultural explanations in the wake of the European Fertility Project's failure to confirm demographic transition theory. Using the city of Riga in present-day Latvia as a case study, the essay provides initial estimates of nuptiality and fertility for resident language and religious groups in 1867 and 1881, and reviews the prospects of future work. Despite obstacles, Eastern Europe offers researchers an exceptional opportunity to test major cultural and economic hypotheses about the fertility decline because sustained ethnic diversity coexisted with economic development.     

Why we need a revolution in strategic planning

The author uses a metaphorical concept of Newtonian planning in an Einsteinian environment to express the predicament facing planners in an environment subject to sudden and unpredictable change. The conventional ‘Newtonian’ approach assumes a sense of order and control whereas the current environment is turbulent, disordered and potentially out of control. He makes recomendations for strategic planners that accept the limitations of existing and foreseeable analytical techniques.     

Changes in Income Concentration: Taxes or Macroeconomic Conditions?

We examine the relative importance of tax rates and macroeconomic fluctuations in explaining the share of national adjusted gross income (AGI) reported by the top 0.5% of all taxpayers. Results indicate that cutting the top income or capital gains tax rate would increase the top AGI share but not by enough to increase revenues. The preponderance of evidence suggests that the top AGI share is affected more by the capital gains tax rate than by the income tax rate but that real gross domestic product fluctuations have even larger effects.     

BARGAINING AND DELAY: THE ROLE OF EXTERNAL INFORMATION

This paper examines the notion that delay in reaching agreement in bargaining may be caused by learning that is independent of the bargaining procedure. In particular, learning is not due to inference from the observed offers and responses of the opponent, but derives from observation of an exogenous, costly signal – we call this 'investigation'. First we observe that even if learning is costless and perfectly informative, investigation may not occur in equilibrium. Under more general conditions, however, uninformed agents typically have an incentive to try to manipulate their prior beliefs through investigation. The main result is that investigation by an uninformed agent may result in significant delay occurring before agreement is reached. We show that this delay may be sustained in the limit as the length of time period vanishes, and that this result depends crucially on the properties of the information production technology underlying investigation. Also, the delay we observe is shown to be robust to changes in the bargaining procedure.     

Assimilation and discriminatory perceptions and experiences: The case of Hispanics in the United States

This paper examines the relationship between assimilation and discriminatory practices encountered by Hispanic-Americans. Theories of intergroup relations have typically assumed that as members of minority ethnic groups assimilate to a dominant group, they perceive and experience lower degrees of discrimination directed against them. In reviewing theories of majority–minority relations, we have called this the “assimilationist” model. This view has been opposed by some scholars who argue that as minority ethnics assimilate and become more knowledgeable of the larger society, they perceive and experience higher levels of discrimination against them and their group. We have termed this the “conflict model” of interethnic relations. Using data from the 2002 National Survey of Latinos, conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center, we test opposing hypotheses based on these two models. Our findings, while exploratory, largely support the assimilationist model, with a few contradictory results. We discuss these findings and their implications for understanding the current situation of Hispanics in the United States.     

Suicide prevention and intervention with young people in foster care in Canada

Given the history of turmoil in their lives, foster children and young people coming into care are particularly at risk of suicide. Whether a crisis is successfully prevented, or treated and transcended, depends upon the ability of foster parents and agency staff members to understand the nature of the situation and to work together in dealing with it.