Back to Brit: retired British migrants returning from Spain

Since the seminal research of O'Reilly, Karen [2000. The British on the Costa del Sol. London: Routledge] and King, Russell, Anthony Warnes, Allan Williams [2000. Sunset Lives: British Retirement Migration to the Mediterranean. New York: Berg Publishers] about British citizens on the Costa del Sol there has been a surge in the publication of lifestyle migration papers, books and research. Nonetheless, there is a part of the lifestyle migration process that has been rarely explored: a return move to the country of origin following retirement migration. Research has indicated a broad increase in the number of older British returnees, yet there has been no substantive research on the topic. This paper therefore attempts to fill this gap by using Spanish registry data to examine the number of British retirees since 2009 who have returned to the UK. In addition, the results of an electronic survey to older British people in Spain are presented which suggest that considerable numbers of British citizens aged over 55 living in the Northern Costa Blanca are likely to return in the next few years. These data therefore indicate the relevance of return migration from Spain to the UK as a significant issue to the academic community as well as to British and Spanish policy-makers.     

The Access/Impact Problem and the Green and Gold Roads to Open Access

The research access/impact problem arises because journal articles are not accessible to all of their would-be users; hence, they are losing potential research impact. The solution is to make all articles Open Access (OA; i.e., accessible online, free for all). OA articles have significantly higher citation impact than non-OA articles. There are two roads to OA: the “golden” road (publish your article in an OA journal) and the “green” road (publish your article in a non-OA journal but also self-archive it in an OA archive). Only 5% of journals are gold, but over 90% are already green (i.e., they have given their authors the green light to self-archive); yet only about 10–20% of articles have been self-archived. To reach 100% OA, self-archiving needs to be mandated by researchers' employers and funders, as the United Kingdom and the United States have recently recommended, and universities need to implement that mandate.     

A Risk-Benefit Analysis of French High Fish Consumption: A QALY Approach

The health risk and the nutritional benefit of a food are usually assessed separately. Toxicologists recommend limiting the consumption of certain fish because of methylmercury; while nutritionists recommend eating more oily fish because of omega 3. A common evaluation is imperative to provide coherent recommendations. In order to evaluate the risks along with the benefits related to fish consumption, a common metric based on the quality-adjusted life year (QALY) method has been used. The impact of a theoretical change from a medium n-3 PUFAs intake to a high intake is studied, in terms of the cardiovascular system (CHD mortality, stroke mortality and morbidity) and on fetal neuronal development (IQ loss or gain). This application can be considered as a sensitive analysis of the model used and looks at the impact of changing the dose-response relationships between cardiovascular diseases and n-3 PUFAs intakes. Results show that increasing fish consumption may have a beneficial impact on health. However, the confidence interval of the overall estimation has a negative lower bound, which means that this increase in fish consumption may have a negative impact due to MeHg contamination. Some limits of the QALY approach are identified. The first concerns determination of the dose-response relationships. The second concerns the economic origins of the approach and of individual preferences. Finally, since only one beneficial aspect and one risk element were studied, consideration should be given to how other beneficial and risk components may be integrated in the model.     

Measuring Inequity Aversion in a Heterogeneous Population Using Experimental Decisions and Subjective Probabilities

We combine choice data in the ultimatum game with the expectations of proposers elicited by subjective probability questions to estimate a structural model of decision making under uncertainty. The model, estimated using a large representative sample of subjects from the Dutch population, allows both nonlinear preferences for equity and expectations to vary across socioeconomic groups. Our results indicate that inequity aversion to one's own disadvantage is an increasing and concave function of the payoff difference. We also find considerable heterogeneity in the population. Young and highly educated subjects have lower aversion for inequity than other groups. Moreover, the model that uses subjective data on expectations generates much better in‐ and out‐of‐sample predictions than a model which assumes that players have rational expectations.     

Estimation of Error and Bias in Bayesian Monte Carlo Decision Analysis Using the Bootstrap

Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) decision analysis adopts a sampling procedure to estimate likelihoods and distributions of outcomes, and then uses that information to calculate the expected performance of alternative strategies, the value of information, and the value of including uncertainty. These decision analysis outputs are therefore subject to sample error. The standard error of each estimate and its bias, if any, can be estimated by the bootstrap procedure. The bootstrap operates by resampling (with replacement) from the original BMC sample, and redoing the decision analysis. Repeating this procedure yields a distribution of decision analysis outputs. The bootstrap approach to estimating the effect of sample error upon BMC analysis is illustrated with a simple value-of-information calculation along with an analysis of a proposed control structure for Lake Erie. The examples show that the outputs of BMC decision analysis can have high levels of sample error and bias.