An Evaluation of Mechanisms of Change in Multisystemic Therapy for Juvenile Justice‐Involved Youths A Decade Following Treatment

Although researchers have identified the more immediate mechanisms of change in family‐based treatments for juvenile justice‐involved youths, it is not known whether these same mechanisms continue to prevent criminal offending into adulthood. The present study evaluated whether caregiver‐directed improvements in family relations, youth prosocial peer relations, and youth academic performance during multisystemic therapy (MST) for serious and violent juvenile offenders had an impact on young adult involvement in criminal activity and sentencing 10.2 years following treatment. The results showed that improvements in family relations were associated with reduced odds of criminal outcomes a decade later for former MST participants. Furthermore, improvements in youth prosocial peer relations and academic performance were also related to lower odds of long‐term criminal activity. These results are consistent with the underlying theory of change in family‐based treatments and demonstrate that caregivers are critical to achieving and sustaining decreased antisocial behavior for youths with serious and violent criminal histories.     

Ebola Virus Dose Response Model for Aerosolized Exposures: Insights from Primate Data

This study develops dose–response models for Ebolavirus using previously published data sets from the open literature. Two such articles were identified in which three different species of nonhuman primates were challenged by aerosolized Ebolavirus in order to study pathology and clinical disease progression. Dose groups were combined and pooled across each study in order to facilitate modeling. The endpoint of each experiment was death. The exponential and exact beta-Poisson models were fit to the data using maximum likelihood estimation. The exact beta-Poisson was deemed the recommended model because it more closely approximated the probability of response at low doses though both models provided a good fit. Although transmission is generally considered to be dominated by person-to-person contact, aerosolization is a possible route of exposure. If possible, this route of exposure could be particularly concerning for persons in occupational roles managing contaminated liquid wastes from patients being treated for Ebola infection and the wastewater community responsible for disinfection. Therefore, this study produces a necessary mathematical relationship between exposure dose and risk of death for the inhalation route of exposure that can support quantitative microbial risk assessment aimed at informing risk mitigation strategies including personal protection policies against occupational exposures.     

A Starting Point for Navigating the World of Daily Fantasy Basketball

Fantasy sports, particularly the daily variety in which new lineups are selected each day, are a rapidly growing industry. The two largest companies in the daily fantasy business, DraftKings and Fanduel, have been valued as high as $2 billion. This research focuses on the development of a complete system for daily fantasy basketball, including both the prediction of player performance and the construction of a team. First, a Bayesian random effects model is used to predict an aggregate measure of daily NBA player performance. The predictions are then used to construct teams under the constraints of the game, typically related to a fictional salary cap and player positions. Permutation based and K-nearest neighbors approaches are compared in terms of the identification of “successful” teams—those who would be competitive more often than not based on historical data. We demonstrate the efficacy of our system by comparing our predictions to those from a well-known analytics website, and by simulating daily competitions over the course of the 2015–2016 season. Our results show an expected profit of approximately $9,000 on an initial $500 investment using the K-nearest neighbors approach, a 36% increase relative to using the permutation-based approach alone. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Distributive Justice Evaluations in Two Cultural Contexts: A Comparison of U.S. and South Korean Teachers

The justice literature suggests, but has nottested, a positive relationship between met expectationsabout multiple workplace rewards and distributivejustice evaluations (the individual's assessment of whether s/he has been treated fairly). Datafrom samples of teachers in South Korea (N = 649) andthe U.S. (N = 810) are used to examine thisrelationship. In addition, U.S.-South Korea culturalvalue differences in individualism, seniority, and hierarchicalauthority are the basis for hypothesizing that certainreward-specific met expectations will be linkeddifferently to justice evaluations across the twosocieties. As hypothesized for both societies, the moreone's expectations about job-related rewards are met,the greater the perception of just treatment. Also ashypothesized, several societal differences based on cultural differences are found. Metexpectations about autonomy are more important inexplaining justice evaluations in the U.S., whereas metexpectations about advancement opportunities are moreimportant in South Korea.     

THE INTERACTION BETWEEN MARITAL STANDARDS AND COMMUNICATION PATTERNS: HOW DOES IT CONTRIBUTE TO MARITAL ADJUSTMENT?

Couples' cognitions about marriage and their communication patterns have both been found to be highly associated with marital distress. To examine the relationships among marital cognitions, communication, and marital adjustment, we had a sample of 387 community couples complete three self-report measures: the Dyadic Adjustment Scale, the Inventory of Specific Relationship Standards, and the Communication Patterns Questionnaire. Results indicated that the correlation of communication with marital adjustment is higher for women with more relationship-focused standards than for women with less relationship-focused standards; this interaction does not occur for men. The implications of the interaction and the gender difference as well as the importance of teaching communication skills, and working with associated cognitions are discussed.     

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN THE SHADOW OF CONFLICT

Appropriation possibilities significantly alter economic fundamentals in a production and exchange economy. This is the primary lesson of our model, which combines Ricardian trade and the potential for predator/prey behavior. The model shows how conflict can be subdued by mutual gains from trade, but at a resource cost that modifies the exchange itself. On the other hand, it identifies conditions wherein appropriation incentives are so strong that specialized production and trade are precluded altogether. The model also reveals a new way to think about and measure the gains from trade. ( JEL C72, D51, D74, F10)     

Rationalizable solutions to pure population problems

In pure population problems, a single resource is to be distributed equally among the agents in a society, and the social planner chooses population size(s) and per-capita consumption(s) for each resource constraint and set of feasible population sizes within the domain of the solution. This paper shows that a weak condition regarding the possible choice of a zero population is necessary and sufficient for the rationalizability of a solution by a welfarist social ordering. In addition, solutions that are rationalized by critical-level generalized utilitarianism are characterized by means of a homogeneity property. Received: 1 December 1997/Accepted: 26 February 1998