Improving Catastrophe Modeling for Business Interruption Insurance Needs

While catastrophe (CAT) modeling of property damage is well developed, modeling of business interruption (BI) lags far behind. One reason is the crude nature of functional relationships in CAT models that translate property damage into BI. Another is that estimating BI losses is more complicated because it depends greatly on public and private decisions during recovery with respect to resilience tactics that dampen losses by using remaining resources more efficiently to maintain business function and to recover more quickly. This article proposes a framework for improving hazard loss estimation for BI insurance needs. Improved data collection that allows for analysis at the level of individual facilities within a company can improve matching the facilities with the effectiveness of individual forms of resilience, such as accessing inventories, relocating operations, and accelerating repair, and can therefore improve estimation accuracy. We then illustrate the difference this can make in a case study example of losses from a hurricane.     

Books on History and Government Published in the United States from October 14, to November 18, 1933

Abstract

Merry M. Merryfield and Richard C. Remy (Editors). Teaching about International Conflict and Peace. Albany, N. Y.: State University of New York Press, 1995. 374 pages. Hardbound. ISBN 0-7914-2373-5. Reviewed by Kent Freeland.

Ralph Abraham. 1994. Chaos, Gaia, Eros: A Chaos Pioneer Uncovers the Three Great Streams of History. San Francisco: Harper San Francisco. Reviewed by Ronald H. Pahl.     

Hormesis: A Highly Generalizable and Reproducible Phenomenon With Important Implications for Risk Assessment

From a comprehensive search of the literature, the hormesis phenomenon was found to occur over a wide range of chemicals, taxonomic groups, and endpoints. By use of computer searches and extensive cross-referencing, nearly 3000 potentially relevant articles were identified. Evidence of chemical and radiation hormesis was judged to have occurred in approximately 1000 of these by use of a priori criteria. These criteria included study design features (e.g., number of doses, dose range), dose–response relationship, statistical analysis, and reproducibility of results. Numerous biological endpoints were assessed, with growth responses the most prevalent, followed by metabolic effects, reproductive responses, longevity, and cancer. Hormetic responses were generally observed to be of limited magnitude with an average maximum stimulation of 30 to 60 percent over that of the controls. This maximum usually occurred 4- to 5-fold below the NOAEL for a particular endpoint. The present analysis suggests that hormesis is a reproducible and generalizable biological phenomenon and is a fundamental component of many, if not most, dose–response relationships. The relatively infrequent observation of hormesis in the literature is believed to be due primarily to experimental design considerations, especially with respect to the number and range of doses and endpoint selection. Because of regulatory considerations, most toxicologic studies have been carried out at high doses above the low-dose region where the hormesis phenomenon occurs.     

Procrustes shape analysis of triangulations of a two coloured point pattern

Consider a set of points in the plane with Gaussian perturbations about a regular mean configuration in which a Delaunay triangulation of the mean of the process is comprised of equilateral triangles of the same size. The points are labelled at random as black or white with variances of the perturbations possibly dependent on the colour. By investigating triangle subsets (with four sets of possible colour labels for the vertices) in detail we propose various test statistics based on a Procrustes shape analysis. A simulation study is carried out to investigate the relative merits and the adequacy of the approximations used in the distributional results, as well as a comparison with simulation methods based on nearest-neighbour distances. The methodology is applied to an investigation of regularity in human muscle fibre cross-sections.     

Risk evaluation of investment projects

A survey is given of techniques for evaluation of risk in individual capital investment projects. The paper identifies the four types of relationships affecting project uncertainty: (1) Accounting-type relationships defining cash flow; (2) Statistical relationships among variables in a given time period; (3) Autocorrelation relationships among cash flows over time; and (4) Uncertainty about project life. Two types of decisions also can affect project profitability and uncertainty: (1) Strategy decisions; and (2) Abandonment decisions. Four types of models for risk evaluation are identified: (1) Certainty model; (2) Hillier model; (3) Monte Carlo model; and (4) Decision Tree model. These four types of models are compared and evaluated in terms of how easily they can incorporate the relationships and decisions mentioned above. Computational issues are also discussed. Suggestions are made for further research.     

A systems simulation model of the Kenyan economy

This paper describes a systems simulation model of the national economy of Kenya. The model contains an input/output production component linked to a consumption component, disaggregated into nine income classes. Capital formation and government are integrated into the model as interactive elements. The model is demand driven and thus growth rates in the productive sectors are generated endogenously as a function of demand. The model has been used by the Kenyan Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning for forecasting and policy evaluation problems. A contributory factor in the successful implementation of the model is its ability to supply detailed quantitative forecasts which, in a developing country, are not readily available from routine sources. In addition, the model deals explicitly with income distribution and inflation consequences which are issues of current concern to local development planners.     

Reliability of isokinetic and isometric knee-extensor force in older women

Because of the need for efficient, consistent strength measurements, the test-retest reliability of concentric, isometric, and eccentric strength; concentric work; and concentric power was determined in older women without a familiarization session. The reliability of measures derived from a single peak score were compared with those derived from an averaged score. On 2 occasions 25 older women with a mean age of 72 +/- 6 years performed 3 submaximal knee extensions and 5 maximal contractions on an isokinetic dynamometer at 90 degrees/s (CON), 0 degrees/s, and -90 degrees/s on both lower limbs. Statistical analyses for peak and averaged values (best 3 contractions of 5) exhibited good relative reliability (ICCs > .88), except for CON power. Typical error as a coefficient of variation and ratio limits of agreement for peak and averaged score values were larger than desired, with CON power scores demonstrating unacceptable error ranges. Although relative reliability of this 1-session assessment protocol was acceptable, further research is needed to determine whether additional practice trials could enhance absolute reliability.     

Obesity over the life course

Obesity in middle-aged humans is a risk factor for many age-related diseases and decreases life expectancy by about 7 years, which is roughly comparable to the combined effect of all cardiovascular disease and cancer on life span. The prevalence of obesity increases up until late middle age and decreases thereafter. Mechanisms that lead to increased obesity with age are not yet well understood, but current evidence implicates impairments in hypothalamic function, especially impairments in the ability of hypothalamic pro-opiomelanocortin neurons to sense nutritional signals. The rapid increase in the prevalence of obesity at all ages in the past decade suggests that, in the next two or three decades, diseases associated with obesity, especially diabetes, will begin to rise rapidly. Indeed, these trends suggest that for the first time in modern history, the life expectancy of people in developed societies will begin to decrease, unless the rapid increase in the prevalence of obesity can be reversed.     

An overview and critique of the experience corps for independent living initiative

This article presents findings of the evaluation of the Experience Corps for Independent Living (ECIL) initiative. The ECIL initiative was a two-year demonstration program designed to test innovative ways to use the experience, time, and resources of volunteers over 55 to expand significantly the size and scope of volunteer efforts on behalf of independent living services for frail older people and their caregivers in specific communities. Six demonstration projects were selected to participate in this initiative. The intensive volunteers, the critical component of the program, were more highly skilled than typical volunteers from existing senior volunteer programs. ECIL volunteers collaborated with agency partners to develop new programs, supervise direct service activities, and enhance the performance of the agencies being served. Although the projects addressed many of the goals of the initiative, they did not fully accomplish all of their objectives. The ECIL initiative was particularly successful in providing independent living services to frail elders and their families in the communities served. It was less successful in developing and maintaining the team and corps concept, in attracting and retaining the anticipated numbers of volunteers during the study period, and in becoming self-sufficient by the end of Year Three.