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121.
Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) decision analysis adopts a sampling procedure to estimate likelihoods and distributions of outcomes, and then uses that information to calculate the expected performance of alternative strategies, the value of information, and the value of including uncertainty. These decision analysis outputs are therefore subject to sample error. The standard error of each estimate and its bias, if any, can be estimated by the bootstrap procedure. The bootstrap operates by resampling (with replacement) from the original BMC sample, and redoing the decision analysis. Repeating this procedure yields a distribution of decision analysis outputs. The bootstrap approach to estimating the effect of sample error upon BMC analysis is illustrated with a simple value-of-information calculation along with an analysis of a proposed control structure for Lake Erie. The examples show that the outputs of BMC decision analysis can have high levels of sample error and bias. 相似文献
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Individuals' knowledge networks are widely considered to contribute substantially to the effectiveness and efficiency of organizations. While the positive effects of knowledge networks as a primary driver of social capital have recently received considerable research attention, potential determinants of individuals' network building have not yet been adequately addressed. In this study, we investigate how certain team‐level properties affect team members' development of knowledge networks through the course of a team project. Using data from 430 team leaders and team members pertaining to 145 software development projects, we test cross‐level hypotheses using hierarchical linear modeling (HLM). The results indicate that the team's perception of the organizational knowledge‐sharing climate, the team's networking preference, and the team's perceived importance of networking for project success positively affect individuals' network building. Furthermore, a team's perception of the adequacy of its technical competency and a team's perception of the adequacy of its material resources inhibit team members' individual network development. Theoretical and managerial implications are discussed. 相似文献
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Objective. Smoking and obesity are associated with significant wage penalties when considered separately. We assess the combined effects of those behaviors. Methods. We estimate the effects of smoking and obesity on wages using multivariate regression analysis with 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data. Results. The raw data indicate that obese smokers experience large earnings penalties. However, these penalties are not found to be interactive or directly causal for most of the demographic subgroups we examine. One exception is the wage penalty associated with obesity for females, which remains significant throughout the analysis. Conclusions. In the absence of a demonstrable direct causal effect of those behaviors on wages, associated individual‐specific socioeconomic factors appear to be the driving forces behind the obese smoker wage penalty. Not included, but potentially significant, are the effects of employer and customer discrimination against obese smokers and the possible labor policy implications of such discrimination. 相似文献
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128.
Wildlife-human interactions are increasing in prevalence as urban sprawl continues to encroach into rural areas. Once considered
to be unsuitable habitat for most wildlife species, urban/suburban areas now host an array of wildlife populations, many of
which were previously restricted to rural or pristine habitats. The presence of some wildlife species in close proximity to
dense human populations can create conflict, forcing resource managers to address issues relating to urban wildlife. However,
evidence suggests that wildlife residing in urban areas may not exhibit the same life history traits as their rural counterparts
because of adaptation to human-induced stresses. This creates difficulty for biologists or managers that must address problems
associated with urban wildlife. Population control or mitigation efforts aimed at urban wildlife require detailed knowledge
of the habits of wildlife populations in urban areas. This paper describes the history of wildlife in urban areas, provides
examples of wildlife populations that have modified their behavior as an adaptation to urban stresses, and discusses the challenges
that resource managers face when dealing with urban wildlife. 相似文献
129.
Behavioral and electrophysiological evidence suggests a gradual, experience‐dependent specialization of cortical face processing systems that takes place largely in the 1st year of life. To further investigate these findings, event‐related potentials (ERPs) were collected from typically developing 9‐month‐old infants presented with pictures of familiar and unfamiliar monkey or human faces in 2 different orientations. Analyses revealed differential processing across changes in monkey and human faces. The N290 was greater for familiar compared to unfamiliar faces, regardless of species or orientation. In contrast, the P400 to unfamiliar faces was greater than to familiar faces, but only for the monkey condition. The P400 to human faces differentiated the orientation of both familiar and unfamiliar faces. These results suggest more specific processing of human compared to monkey faces in 9‐month‐olds. 相似文献
130.