USING AN UNCERTAINTY MODEL TO ASSESS SALES RESPONSE TO ADVERTISING*

Implications of a probabilistic “random walk” model of incremental sales response to advertising are developed for various timing patterns of advertising expenditures. Maximum likelihood procedures for assessing advertising effectiveness and for estimating a decay (forgetting) rate are developed and applied to artificial data of known configuration and are used to assess the impact over time of a brochure program on mail-order sales. Results are also compared to those from alternative models involving various lag patterns in advertising effects.     

Self-management competencies in self-managing teams: Their impact on multi-team system productivity

This research examined how composition of individual capabilities within self-managed teams translates into greater effectiveness for multi-team systems (MTS) in which teams are embedded. We investigated how a broad range of self-management competencies by team members aggregate to form a collective construct that influences productivity of a team network. In a semiconductor plant, we surveyed 716 members from 97 self-managed teams in 21 MTS. We found that MTS comprising teams whose members widely practice self-management strategies attain higher productivity gains and that multi-team systems consisting of highly cohesive teams of self-managers are the most productive.     

Effects of repeated multi-source feedback on the influence behavior and effectiveness of managers: A field experiment

Despite the widespread use of multi-source behavioral feedback as a method of leadership development, little research has been conducted to identify facilitating conditions that can make the feedback more effective. This article reports results from a longitudinal field experiment on the effects of providing feedback about influence behavior to middle managers in the corporate office of a supermarket chain. Managers who only attended a single feedback workshop were compared to managers who attended a second feedback workshop several months after the initial one. A significant increase in the use of “core” influence tactics with subordinates and peers was found only for the managers who received repeated feedback, and they were also rated higher in overall effectiveness by their bosses. Practical implications for leadership development and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

The use of constructive-developmental theory to advance the understanding of leadership

Constructive-developmental theory is a stage theory of adult development that focuses on the growth and elaboration of a person's ways of understanding the self and the world. In this article we review how the constructive-developmental frameworks of Kegan [Kegan, R. (1982). The evolving self: Problem and process in human development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press], Torbert [Torbert, W. R. (1987). Managing the corporate dream: Restructuring for long-term success. Homewood, IL: Dow Jones-Irwin.], and Kohlberg [Kohlberg, L. (1969). Stage and sequence: The cognitive developmental approach to socialization. In D. Goslin (Ed.), Handbook of socialization: Theory and research. New York: Rand McNally] have been applied in the theoretical and empirical literature on leadership and management. Although the literature has produced a number of propositions, the notion that a leader's order of development should impact his or her leadership effectiveness or managerial performance has generated the most research. We found mixed support for this proposition as well as a number of limitations in the research in general. To have a greater impact on the leadership field, constructive-developmental theory needs to generate more robust research, to link more clearly with on-going streams of leadership research, and to explore the contribution of aspects of the theory beyond individual order of development.     

Aggregation and Optimization with State‐Dependent Pricing: A Comment

A key argument in Caplin and Leahy (1997) states that the correlation between monetary shocks and output is falling in the variance of the money supply. We demonstrate that this conclusion depends on solving for the correlation in the nonstationary state of the model. In the stationary state, that correlation is initially rising.     

Incorporating Time‐Dose‐Response into Legionella Outbreak Models

A novel method was used to incorporate in vivo host–pathogen dynamics into a new robust outbreak model for legionellosis. Dose‐response and time‐dose‐response (TDR) models were generated for Legionella longbeachae exposure to mice via the intratracheal route using a maximum likelihood estimation approach. The best‐fit TDR model was then incorporated into two L. pneumophila outbreak models: an outbreak that occurred at a spa in Japan, and one that occurred in a Melbourne aquarium. The best‐fit TDR from the murine dosing study was the beta‐Poisson with exponential‐reciprocal dependency model, which had a minimized deviance of 32.9. This model was tested against other incubation distributions in the Japan outbreak, and performed consistently well, with reported deviances ranging from 32 to 35. In the case of the Melbourne outbreak, the exponential model with exponential dependency was tested against non‐time‐dependent distributions to explore the performance of the time‐dependent model with the lowest number of parameters. This model reported low minimized deviances around 8 for the Weibull, gamma, and lognormal exposure distribution cases. This work shows that the incorporation of a time factor into outbreak distributions provides models with acceptable fits that can provide insight into the in vivo dynamics of the host‐pathogen system.     

Team‐Level Antecedents of Individuals' Knowledge Networks*

Individuals' knowledge networks are widely considered to contribute substantially to the effectiveness and efficiency of organizations. While the positive effects of knowledge networks as a primary driver of social capital have recently received considerable research attention, potential determinants of individuals' network building have not yet been adequately addressed. In this study, we investigate how certain team‐level properties affect team members' development of knowledge networks through the course of a team project. Using data from 430 team leaders and team members pertaining to 145 software development projects, we test cross‐level hypotheses using hierarchical linear modeling (HLM). The results indicate that the team's perception of the organizational knowledge‐sharing climate, the team's networking preference, and the team's perceived importance of networking for project success positively affect individuals' network building. Furthermore, a team's perception of the adequacy of its technical competency and a team's perception of the adequacy of its material resources inhibit team members' individual network development. Theoretical and managerial implications are discussed.     

The Access/Impact Problem and the Green and Gold Roads to Open Access

The research access/impact problem arises because journal articles are not accessible to all of their would-be users; hence, they are losing potential research impact. The solution is to make all articles Open Access (OA; i.e., accessible online, free for all). OA articles have significantly higher citation impact than non-OA articles. There are two roads to OA: the “golden” road (publish your article in an OA journal) and the “green” road (publish your article in a non-OA journal but also self-archive it in an OA archive). Only 5% of journals are gold, but over 90% are already green (i.e., they have given their authors the green light to self-archive); yet only about 10–20% of articles have been self-archived. To reach 100% OA, self-archiving needs to be mandated by researchers' employers and funders, as the United Kingdom and the United States have recently recommended, and universities need to implement that mandate.