Does the best practice of rational-style model-based policy analysis already include ethical considerations?,

This paper deals with ethics in the context of the real-world practice of operations research (OR), once an analyst has taken on the responsibility of carrying out a rational-style model-based policy study for a client. OR models are often used by policy analysts to assist decisionmakers in choosing a good course of action based on multiple (and competing) criteria from among a variety of alternatives under uncertain conditions as part of the policy analysis process. The paper suggests that if applied operations researchers (acting as rational-style model-based policy analysts, and not as policy analysts playing a different role or as policy advocates) use the scientific method and apply the generally accepted best practices of their profession, they will be acting in an ethical manner. It, therefore, describes the steps of a typical rational-style model-based policy analysis study, and specifies the tenets of good practice in each step. It also provides a list of questions and statements that the analyst and those evaluating an analyst's work (both internally and externally) can use to help make sure that the study adheres to the tenets of good practice for rational-style model-based policy analysis and remains within ethical bounds.     

A Predictive Study of Dirichlet Process Mixture Models for Curve Fitting

This paper examines the use of Dirichlet process mixtures for curve fitting. An important modelling aspect in this setting is the choice between constant and covariate‐dependent weights. By examining the problem of curve fitting from a predictive perspective, we show the advantages of using covariate‐dependent weights. These advantages are a result of the incorporation of covariate proximity in the latent partition. However, closer examination of the partition yields further complications, which arise from the vast number of total partitions. To overcome this, we propose to modify the probability law of the random partition to strictly enforce the notion of covariate proximity, while still maintaining certain properties of the Dirichlet process. This allows the distribution of the partition to depend on the covariate in a simple manner and greatly reduces the total number of possible partitions, resulting in improved curve fitting and faster computations. Numerical illustrations are presented.     

Bayesian estimation of the Cox model under different hazard rate shape assumptions via slice sampling

In this paper, we provide a full Bayesian analysis for Cox's proportional hazards model under different hazard rate shape assumptions. To this end, we select the modified Weibull distribution family to model failure rates. A novel Markov chain Monte Carlo method allows one to tackle both exact and right-censored failure time data. Both simulated and real data are used to illustrate the methods.     

The Impact of Neo-liberalism on South Korea's Public Pension: A Political Economy of Pension Reform

This article examines the recent Korean pension reforms from a political economy perspective. It argues that these reforms are of particular interest because, unlike major pay-as-you-go pension schemes in Europe, the Korean pension scheme is a funded one and, therefore, is subject to market exposure. Also in contrast to the problems that public pension reforms have encountered in European and other OECD countries, especially 'blame avoidance', the more radical Korean reforms were implemented without significant challenge or resistance. First of all, the National Pension Scheme is described prior to the 1997 Asian economic crisis. Then the impact of this crisis on the Korean welfare state and, especially, its pension system are analysed. The main part of the article consists of a political economy of the pension reform process, in which the key roles of the international governmental organizations and the domestic neo-liberal policy elite are pinpointed. This neo-liberal ideology was critical in developing and sustaining an influential discourse on the 'crisis' in Korea's national pension fund. The article concludes by arguing, against the neo-liberal tide, for the inclusion of a pay-as-you-go element in the national pension in order to tackle escalating poverty in old age.     

Does size really matter?: A reexamination of Sheldon's somatotypes and criminal behavior

In the mid-20th century, William Sheldon developed the idea of somatotypes in explaining different types of criminal behavior. Sheldon defined three body types believed to be associated with criminality: mesomorphs, who are athletically fit; endomorphs, who are overweight, and ectomorphs, who are characterized by fragility and thinness. Sheldon's research implied that mesomorphic individuals were more prone to committing violent and aggressive acts. This research explores a new method of somatotyping using the Body Mass Index (BMI). What follows is an examination of prisoners from the State of Arkansas, using information provided by the Arkansas Department of Correction's database on inmates. In particular, this paper examined prisoners’ physical characteristics such as age, height, and weight in comparison to the types of crimes that these prisoners committed. The findings of this paper show that the BMI is a useful alternative to traditional somatotyping techniques; the findings also suggest that a prisoner's somatotype is associated with criminal patterns while being a meager predictor of criminality. Methodological and theoretical implications of this study are discussed.     

The safety net function of NTFPs in different agro-ecological zones of South Africa

Various South African studies have shown that rural households use NTFPs as safety nets in times of misfortune. However being focussed on one or two sites, they do not show the prevalence of NTFP use as safety nets across multiple sites. In addition, they do not show the use of NTFPs as safety nets by rural households in different agro-ecological zones. The results of the study showed that about 79% of the total households interviewed experienced at least one shock of some magnitude in the previous 12 months. The most experienced shocks were illness, death, crop failure, and hunger. The households employed various coping strategies in response to different types of shocks, with the three widely used strategies being assistance from friends and relatives, using cash savings, and using NTFPs. Households in low agro-ecological zones used NTFPs as safety nets more than households in high agro-ecological zones.     

‘He outfitted his family in notable decency’: Slavery,Honour and Dress in Eighteenth-Century Lima,Peru

For elite Spaniards in eighteenth-century Lima, elegant clothing provided a language for expressing their wealth, status and honour. They frequently made their way around town in the company of elegantly dressed slave attendants, whose presence underscored their owners' privilege. Yet many slaves found opportunities to function as more than mere canvasses for the expression of their owners' identities. Indeed, for a surprising number of slaves, elegant clothing was a key tool with which they negotiated their status and laid claim to their own definitions of honour. By mapping the study of material culture onto the study of slavery, this paper brings into relief the social meanings that clothing contained for slaves, and highlights the possibilities that urban life contained for the creation of social identities that fell outside the social and colour lines drawn by the colonial state.¹