Bayesian inference with misspecified models

This article reviews Bayesian inference from the perspective that the designated model is misspecified. This misspecification has implications in interpretation of objects, such as the prior distribution, which has been the cause of recent questioning of the appropriateness of Bayesian inference in this scenario. The main focus of this article is to establish the suitability of applying the Bayes update to a misspecified model, and relies on representation theorems for sequences of symmetric distributions; the identification of parameter values of interest; and the construction of sequences of distributions which act as the guesses as to where the next observation is coming from. A conclusion is that a clear identification of the fundamental starting point for the Bayesian is described.     

Computing Marginal Likelihoods via Posterior Sampling

This article presents a novel and simple approach to the estimation of a marginal likelihood, in a Bayesian context. The estimate is based on a Markov chain output which provides samples from the posterior distribution and an additional latent variable. It is the mean of this latent variable which provides the estimate for the value of the marginal likelihood.     

Gibbs sampling for Bayesian non-conjugate and hierarchical models by using auxiliary variables

We demonstrate the use of auxiliary (or latent) variables for sampling non-standard densities which arise in the context of the Bayesian analysis of non-conjugate and hierarchical models by using a Gibbs sampler. Their strategic use can result in a Gibbs sampler having easily sampled full conditionals. We propose such a procedure to simplify or speed up the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The strength of this approach lies in its generality and its ease of implementation. The aim of the paper, therefore, is to provide an alternative sampling algorithm to rejection-based methods and other sampling approaches such as the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm.     

Slice sampling mixture models

We propose a more efficient version of the slice sampler for Dirichlet process mixture models described by Walker (Commun. Stat., Simul. Comput. 36:45–54, 2007). This new sampler allows for the fitting of infinite mixture models with a wide-range of prior specifications. To illustrate this flexibility we consider priors defined through infinite sequences of independent positive random variables. Two applications are considered: density estimation using mixture models and hazard function estimation. In each case we show how the slice efficient sampler can be applied to make inference in the models. In the mixture case, two submodels are studied in detail. The first one assumes that the positive random variables are Gamma distributed and the second assumes that they are inverse-Gaussian distributed. Both priors have two hyperparameters and we consider their effect on the prior distribution of the number of occupied clusters in a sample. Extensive computational comparisons with alternative “conditional” simulation techniques for mixture models using the standard Dirichlet process prior and our new priors are made. The properties of the new priors are illustrated on a density estimation problem.     

文化、自我建构与中国人的休闲

Markus和Kitayama提出了独立型自我建构与互依型自我建构概念:独立型自我个体崇尚彰显自我价值和与众不同,愿意把自己从环境和他人中脱离出来;而互依型自我建构个体重视人与人之间的关系,密切关注他人的需求与感受,愿意把自己融入环境和他人关系中。自我建构概念对理解中国人的休闲非常有益。第一,互依型自我建构特征影响着中国人的休闲认知,大部分中国人认为参加休闲活动可以增进家人感情和促进人际和谐,该认知进一步影响了休闲活动选择和休闲制约。第二,互依型自我建构特征还影响着中国人的休闲情绪。中国人喜欢温和情绪体验,与西方人相比更喜欢静态的休闲活动。第三,互依型自我建构特征也影响着中国人的休闲动机。西方学者认为休闲的核心特征是自由选择和自主性。但大量研究表明,它们最适于西方独立型自我建构个体,对处于东方文化中的互依型自我建构个体来说,人际关系和归属感比自由选择更重要。     

The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions

This paper develops a tractable econometric model of optimal migration, focusing on expected income as the main economic influence on migration. The model improves on previous work in two respects: it covers optimal sequences of location decisions (rather than a single once‐for‐all choice) and it allows for many alternative location choices. The model is estimated using panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth on white males with a high‐school education. Our main conclusion is that interstate migration decisions are influenced to a substantial extent by income prospects. The results suggest that the link between income and migration decisions is driven both by geographic differences in mean wages and by a tendency to move in search of a better locational match when the income realization in the current location is unfavorable.     

Grandparenting in the 21st century: issues of diversity in grandparent-grandchild relationships

Although previous literature has demonstrated the importance of age, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status in understanding grandparent-grandchild relationships, additional factors contribute to a more complete and nuanced understanding of multigenerational relationships. Thorough understanding of the role of diversity requires examination of the discrete impacts of grandparents' gender, sexual orientation, and physical and/or cognitive limitations on the relationship. This article focuses on these 3 important, yet overlooked, issues of diversity, with a focus on strength-based and empowerment-oriented strategies and their implications for practice, policy, and future research.