Partner Choice and the Differential Retreat From Marriage

The contemporary retreat from marriage in the United States has had a differential impact across socioeconomic and racial groups. Here, 1990 marriage rates and propensities for Virginia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are analyzed regarding (a) the likelihood that persons in different groups ever marry and (b) patterns of partner choice with respect to race and educational level. Marriage remains strong in most race‐education groups but is substantially lower among Blacks and among those with less than 12 years of education. Patterns of partner choice have shifted to show greater symmetry between the educational levels of brides and grooms. Changes have been modest with regard to the level and pattern of interracial (Black‐White) marriage. Marriage is increasingly a union of equals, but a union chosen more by Whites than by Blacks and more by the well educated than by the poorly educated.     

Exposure Reconstruction for the TCDD-Exposed NIOSH Cohort Using a Concentration- and Age-Dependent Model of Elimination

Recent studies demonstrating a concentration dependence of elimination of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) suggest that previous estimates of exposure for occupationally exposed cohorts may have underestimated actual exposure, resulting in a potential overestimate of the carcinogenic potency of TCDD in humans based on the mortality data for these cohorts. Using a database on U.S. chemical manufacturing workers potentially exposed to TCDD compiled by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), we evaluated the impact of using a concentration- and age-dependent elimination model (CADM) (Aylward et al., 2005) on estimates of serum lipid area under the curve (AUC) for the NIOSH cohort. These data were used previously by Steenland et al. (2001) in combination with a first-order elimination model with an 8.7-year half-life to estimate cumulative serum lipid concentration (equivalent to AUC) for these workers for use in cancer dose-response assessment. Serum lipid TCDD measurements taken in 1988 for a subset of the cohort were combined with the NIOSH job exposure matrix and work histories to estimate dose rates per unit of exposure score. We evaluated the effect of choices in regression model (regression on untransformed vs. ln-transformed data and inclusion of a nonzero regression intercept) as well as the impact of choices of elimination models and parameters on estimated AUCs for the cohort. Central estimates for dose rate parameters derived from the serum-sampled subcohort were applied with the elimination models to time-specific exposure scores for the entire cohort to generate AUC estimates for all cohort members. Use of the CADM resulted in improved model fits to the serum sampling data compared to the first-order models. Dose rates varied by a factor of 50 among different combinations of elimination model, parameter sets, and regression models. Use of a CADM results in increases of up to five-fold in AUC estimates for the more highly exposed members of the cohort compared to estimates obtained using the first-order model with 8.7-year half-life. This degree of variation in the AUC estimates for this cohort would affect substantially the cancer potency estimates derived from the mortality data from this cohort. Such variability and uncertainty in the reconstructed serum lipid AUC estimates for this cohort, depending on elimination model, parameter set, and regression model, have not been described previously and are critical components in evaluating the dose-response data from the occupationally exposed populations.     

于显在主题之外找寻异质——《创业史》再解读

《创业史》的显在主题明确而唯一。然而文本中的异质成分却构成潜在的主题,在一定程度上解构了显在的主题:对个体劳动的礼赞,冲击了以公有制强行取代私有制的国家意志;对合理诉求的再现,表现了“异己者”要求平等自由、言行一致的有效追问;对女性命运的书写,凸显了社会主义新人梁生宝的人格缺失。在文本显在主题所依附的政治意义遭遇颠覆的今天,正是这些异质成分使文本具有了超越时代的价值。     

VR技术应用于绘本课程的价值、困境与出路

VR技术是构建元宇宙世界的核心技术之一,兼具沉浸性、交互性、构想性三大特征。基于VR技术特征构建的绘本课程体系能够弥补传统绘本课程的不足,为幼儿提供全新的绘本课程体验,突出表现为：沉浸性破隔离;交互性变主动;构想性融时空。但VR技术应用于绘本课程也存在诸多现实困境,如：前期投入成本高,普及推广难度大;教师能力需提升,评价机制待商榷;安全风险影响大,家长接受程度低;儿童发展差异大,潜在问题待理清。针对这些困境,应推动产学研深度融合,以科研推动其普及;创新绘本课程教学模式,以创新带动其转型;增强VR技术的实践效能,以实效论证其价值;加强VR技术的安全性,以安全促进其应用。     

社会和谐与政府转型

构建和谐社会背景下的政府转型,一是科学地调整政府职能结构,实现公共服务提供方式的转变,树立政府“大服务”理念,培育和发展公民社会;二是转变政府职能,健全宏观调控体系,建设法治政府,强化政府的社会管理和公共服务职能。     

以科学发展观为统领促进县域经济社会发展——以横县为例

以科学发展观指导县域经济社会发展,具有重要的战略意义。横县要发展成为广西强县,就必须从践行科学发展的角度出发,培育特色产业,积极融入广西北部湾经济区开放开发建设,大力拓展横县对外开放发展空间,促进社会全面进步和人的全面发展。     

流浪儿童日常生活研究的范式问题

本文对现有的关于流浪儿童日常生活研究的主要范式进行了评述,揭示并详析了以强调流浪儿童的脆弱性为主要特征的“脆弱性视角”、以关注流浪儿童的能动性为基本特征的“能动性视角”和强调流浪儿童的越轨行为的“越轨性视角”。这三种视角强调的流浪儿童日常生活的不同面向之间,可能存在相互交织密不可分的关系。为此,以内涵广泛并内在地强调动态过程的“社会排斥”可成为流浪儿童日常生活研究的一个更适切的概念工具。     

中国延边朝鲜族自治州的移民资本流动

显著的移民资本流动已经在南朝鲜与延边之间发生.延边当地政府支持劳动力移民,支持随后的汇款额利用所带来的渐进利益.官方对成功的移民者和他们同延边经济发展的整合不感兴趣.他们已经采取措施推动移民但是并没有出台有效的政策用以将新资本转移到延边,并将它们注入当地发展中.到目前为止重要的资源并没有被触及.     

项目援助与西藏经济发展

本文讨论了援助西藏项目的成就与局限。作者通过个案调查和文献资料梳理发现,援助西藏的经济建设项目取得了巨大成就,但项目的社会和经济效益表现得参差多态。由政府主导资源配置实施的项目援藏,强化了计划经济,导致资源配置的低效,有可能带来援助依赖。     

商周"鼎"观念的二元结构

鼎是商周礼器中的代表性器物.在它身上,既凝聚了现实生活的世俗性,又饱含古人的文化想象.本文从其创制入手,通过分析上古文献,阐述商周时代鼎在人们心目中的"神圣/世俗"二元结构存在.