Commitment,Forgiveness, and Relationship Self‐Regulation: An Actor Partner Interdependence Model of Relationship Virtues and Relationship Effort in Couple Relationships

Dyadic data from 679 committed couples were used to examine associations between commitment, forgiveness, and perceptions of partner's relationship self‐regulation (RSR) behaviors—that is effort and strategies that partners exert to maintain the relationship. We found that for both partners, higher self‐reports of commitment and forgiveness were associated with higher perceptions of their partner's RSR. For females, higher commitment and forgiveness were associated with higher male perceptions of her RSR, and higher male forgiveness was associated with higher female perceptions of his RSR. These findings demonstrate the importance of marital virtues and relationship work and give credence to the marital competence model of “other‐centeredness” by Carroll et al. (2006, Journal of Family Issues, 27(7), 1001). Clinical implications are discussed.     

PREDICTING RETIREMENT SAVINGS USING SURVEY MEASURES OF EXPONENTIAL‐GROWTH BIAS AND PRESENT BIAS

In a nationally representative sample, we predict retirement savings using survey‐based elicitations of exponential‐growth bias (EGB) and present bias (PB). We find that EGB, the tendency to neglect compounding, and PB, the tendency to value the present over the future, are highly significant and economically meaningful predictors of retirement savings. These relationships hold controlling for cognitive ability, financial literacy, and a rich set of demographic controls. We address measurement error as a potential confound and explore mechanisms through which these biases may operate. Back of the envelope calculations suggest that eliminating EGB and PB would increase retirement savings by approximately 12%. (JEL D91, D14)     

Representations of reliability: The rhetoric of political flip-flopping

This study used a qualitative analysis of political flip-flops (N?=?141) to create a typology of rhetorical strategies for politicians who are perceived to have changed positions on political issues. The core purpose of such rhetoric is to achieve a representation of reliability. Politicians who appear to change positions must do so in a way that does not make them seem unreliable to their key stakeholders. Strategies for achieving this goal fall into four primary categories: ignore, deny, justify, and repent. Within each category are more specific tactics, such as evading questions, claiming one was misquoted, arguing one is adapting to new circumstances, or explaining that one has acquired new information about an issue. Using Bitzer’s theory of the rhetorical situation, we argue that certain strategies are more appropriate than others in certain situations. We discuss the practical and ethical implications of these strategies.     

Evidence of Skill and Strategy in Daily Fantasy Basketball

Using hand-collected data from DraftKings.com, a major daily fantasy sports website, we analyze draft selections of thousands of participants in daily fantasy basketball (DFB). In our study, the first thorough examination of DFB, we show that DFB is a game in which skill is necessary for success. Using econometric analysis, we find that winning participants utilize different strategies than losing participants; for example, winning participants more frequently select NBA rookies and international players. We also find that participants paying to enter more lineups in a given contest earn profits far more often than those entering few lineups, indicating that the number of lineups entered can serve as a proxy for skill. Additionally, we provide a thorough discussion of industry characteristics, prior literature, and gameplay, which should help readers familiarize themselves with this burgeoning fantasy sports variant. This study should further the literature on the contentious activity, which has been outlawed in many U.S. states and continues to elicit controversy.     

Same-sex marriage laws and demand for mortgage credit

Marriage for same-sex couples was only permitted in a limited number of states prior to the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2015 decision in Obergefell v. Hodges. We exploit panel variation across states prior to the Supreme Court decision to investigate the effect of marriage laws on demand for mortgage credit. Identification relies on the fact that states permitted same-sex marriage at different points in time, often through court order whereby the outcome and timing of ruling was unknown. We estimate that states permitting same-sex marriage experienced a 6–16% increase in same-sex mortgage applications after the policy was implemented. Federal recognition of marriage is associated with a stronger effect than state same-sex marriage prior to the repeal of the Defense of Marriage Act, but the effect of state-recognized marriage is also stronger than anti-discrimination policies in housing. Our findings provide important insight not only to the housing choices of same-sex households but the impact of marriage on all households.     

Relationships between period and cohort life expectancy: gaps and lags

This paper offers an empirical and analytic foundation for regarding period life expectancy as a lagged indicator of the experience of real cohorts in populations experiencing steady improvement in mortality. We find that current period life expectancy in the industrialized world applies to cohorts born some 40-50 years ago. Lags track an average age at which future years of life are being gained, in a sense that we make precise. Our findings augment Ryder's classic results on period-cohort translation.     

The Relation of Gender, Personality, and Intelligence to Judges' Accuracy in Judging Strangers' Personality From Brief Video Segments

Fifty-three men and 56 women viewed brief video segments of 32 male targets and rated them on three personality traits: extraversion, neuroticism, and masculinity-femininity (M-F). Judges were assessed on general intelligence, Big Five traits, and gender-related traits. Two measures of accuracy were computed: 1) consensus accuracy, which measured the correlation between judges' ratings and corresponding ratings made by previous judges, and 2) trait accuracy, which measured the correlation between judges' ratings and targets' assessed personality. There was no gender difference in overall accuracy. However, women showed higher trait accuracy than men in judging neuroticism. Consensus accuracy exceeded trait accuracy, and extraversion and M-F were judged more accurately than neuroticism. M-F judgments showed the highest level of consensus accuracy. Judges' intelligence correlated positively with accuracy. Except for openness, personality traits were generally unrelated to accuracy.     

Managing Risk: A Joint U.S.-German Perspective

Ideas from a USA-FRG conference on risk management are presented. In general, the difficulties confronted by risk management authorities in the two countries are similar, from discovering important risks at an early stage to setting acceptable goals. Government regulation is overburdened and somewhat inefficient in both countries, leading to greater search for alternatives. The many differences in approach between the two countries can inform both. German risk management is done largely through negotiations among the affected parties; when this does not resolve a dispute, a specialized administrative court takes charge. In both countries nonregulatory methods of managing risk should be enhanced and given a larger role. A matrix of risk management method versus criteria proved stimulating in comparing and ranking approaches. The conceptual differences between managing discrete events (auto crashes, boiler explosions, etc.) and chronic exposures have not been appreciated. Although uncertainty and probability are involved in both, there are qualitative differences in both analysis and management. Public perceptions of risk and the role these should play have been characterized by "objectivist" and "subjectivist" positions. In the former view, risks are subject to analysis, are calculable, and the public must be educated to accept the conclusions of experts. In the latter view what people perceive is what is most important, both psychologically and politically, and the risk experts must understand public fears and desires. These are important opportunities for cross cultural studies.