The 9/11 effect: Toward a social science of the terrorist threat

After 9/11, public attitudes on numerous social issues changed. While many studies have examined post-9/11 attitude trends on specific topics, such as civil liberties or war, few have investigated the scope and variety of these effects. Did the events of 9/11 have a brief effect on a limited number of attitudes, or did they produce numerous, long-term changes in the way Americans think, feel and act? Drawing on a broad range of pre-post-9/11 studies, this review essay begins to answer this question by developing a framework for categorizing these effects and distinguishing short-term changes from long-term ones. The framework is intended to help facilitate an interdisciplinary social scientific research agenda on the effects of 9/11 and other terrorist acts. The essay concludes by explaining the social importance of the public's response to terrorism and the need for further research on this topic.     

A Causal Analysis of Large Vehicle Accidents Through Fault-Tree Analysis

Recent trends indicate that vehicle miles traveled for large trucks is increasing at a higher rate than for other vehicles. The resulting competition between large trucks and other vehicles for highway space can be expected to result in more multivehicle collisions involving large trucks. This paper presents the result of an investigation of the causes and the mechanism related to large vehicle accidents. A fault-tree analysis of large vehicle accidents identifies the individual roles played by driver, vehicle, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions in the accident mechanism. Using accident data for 1984-1986, the probabilities for different basic events in the fault tree were assessed. The most likely events leading to a large vehicle accident, as well as the most effective counter measures, were then identified. The result indicate that the most prevalent form of accidents due to driver-related failures is when a normal driver makes an error in judgment and is unsuccessful in his or her evasive action. For vehicle-related failures, the predominant type of failure is equipment failure, and for environmental-related failures, excessive demand on driver and vehicle performance created by the environmental or roadway factors.     

Shifting Worlds of Strangers: Medium Theory and Changes in “Them” Versus “Us”*

Macrolevel analyses of the influence of different communication technologies are more difficult to test and apply than the results of focused studies of particular media messages. Nevertheless, “medium theory” is of potentially great significance because it outlines how media, rather than functioning simply as channels for conveying information between two or more social environments, are themselves social contexts that foster certain forms of interaction and social identities. This article uses a medium-theory perspective to address one variable related to “technological communities”—the changing boundaries between “them” and “us.” The ways in which oral, print, and electronic modes of communication each foster a different balance between strangers and “familiars” are outlined.     

Guestworker programs: Evidence from Europe and the United States and some implications for U.S. policy

Mounting concern in the United States over increased illegal migration from Mexico during the past decade has generated a heated policy debate and led to a number of proposals as to how the U.S. government should deal with the problem. Among these has been a call for a temporary worker program similar to the U.S.-sponsored Bracero Program (1942–1964) in which over 4 million Mexican workers were recruited to perform temporary agricultural labor in the southwestern United States. This article considers the implications of such a program by examining the social and economic effects of previous guestworker programs in the United States and western Europe from the perspective of both sending and receiving societies. Particular attention is paid to the efficacy of these programs in promoting temporary as opposed to long-term immigration of foreign workers as well as their developmental impact on sending countries.Now at 2405 Rayburn House Office Building, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington DC 20515.     

Expatriate Cultural Antecedents and Outcomes

This field note is based upon a case study of US expatriates working for a multinational nonprofit organization in North and Central Africa. The purpose of this study was to examine expatriate culture adjustment from two vantage points. First, the study tested the impact of three organizational conditions on expatriate culture adjustment. Second, the study examined the relationship between an expatriate's culture adjustment and (1) their intention to prematurely leave the international assignment and (2) their effectiveness in host country relationships. In the first phase of analysis, the study found that the expatriate's alignment with organizational mission and values, level of team esprit‐de‐corps, and job satisfaction were significant predictors of national cultural adjustment. In the second phase, the study found that higher levels of expatriate cultural adjustment (1) yielded lower levels of employees’ premature turnover intention and (2) enhanced the expatriate's ability to work with host country nationals and their organizations. The validated survey instrument in this study provides managers with a tool to measure the organizational conditions, expatriate's level of cultural adjustment, turnover intention, and relationships with host ‐country nationals. Implications for research and practice are discussed.     

SELECTIVE ATTENTION AND LEARNING

What do we notice and how does this affect what we learn and come to believe? I present a model of an agent who learns to make forecasts on the basis of readily available information, but is selective as to which information he attends to: he chooses whether to attend as a function of current beliefs about whether such information is predictive. If the agent does not attend to some piece of information, it cannot be recalled at a later date. He uses Bayes' rule to update his beliefs given attended‐to information, but does not attempt to fill in missing information. The model demonstrates how selective attention may lead the agent to persistently fail to recognize important empirical regularities, make systematically biased forecasts, and hold incorrect beliefs about the statistical relationship between variables. In addition, it identifies factors that make such errors more likely or persistent. The model is applied to shed light on stereotyping and discrimination, persistent learning failures and disagreement, and the process of discovery.     

Long‐Term Population Decline in Europe: The Relative Importance of Tempo Effects and Generational Length

It has recently been suggested that an end to further increases in the mean age of child‐bearing in Europe (ending the negative tempo effect on fertility) would have a substantial effect on population dynamics in terms of slowing population aging and decline and weakening the negative momentum affecting population size over the coming decades. On the other hand, stable population theory suggests that under sub‐replacement fertility conditions, a longer mean length of generations implies slower shrinking, and thus a relatively larger population in the very long run. This note compares the relative importance of the two effects analytically and with data for the 15‐country European Union. It also considers whether an increase in the mean age of childbearing will decrease the quantum of fertility. This question is highly relevant in the context of the effects of possible policies aiming to influence the tempo of fertility rather than the quantum directly. The results show that for the coming 200 years the effect of tempo changes clearly dominates, with the effect of a shorter mean length of generation only becoming visible thereafter. Even small tempo‐quantum interactions can overwhelm the generation‐length effect.