Small Sample Theory of the Langevin Distribution

Summary
The one-sample and multi-sample problems for the Langevin distribution are studied. The asymptotic expansions of the distributions of several test statistics proposed by Watson (1983a) are obtained under both the null and the alternative hypotheses.     

An adaptive estimatcr frequently used in material fatigue testing

Small sample sizes in material fatigue tests give rise to an adaptive estimator of the 100(1-P)% normal percentile, which is the 100P% survival load. The mean squared relative efficiency of the best invariant estimator of normal percentiles to the adaptive estimator is dependent upon the unknown parameters only through the coefficient of variation. The adaptive estimator is shown to be more locally efficient than tl-:ebest invariant estimator over a subset of the parameter space. However, in the extreme values of P the coverage probabilities of the adaptive estimator provide little more protection than a traditional point estimator over the range of preference based on mean squared relative efficiency.     

Benford’s Law and Number Selection in Fixed-Odds Numbers Game

In fixed-odds numbers games, the prizes and the odds of winning are known at the time of placement of the wager. Both players and operators are subject to the vagaries of luck in such games. Most game operators limit their liability exposure by imposing a sales limit on the bets received for each bet type, at the risk of losing the rejected bets to the underground operators. This raises a question—how should the game operator set the appropriate sales limit? We argue that the choice of the sales limit is intimately related to the ways players select numbers to bet on in the games. There are ample empirical evidences suggesting that players do not choose all numbers with equal probability, but have a tendency to bet on (small) numbers that are closely related to events around them (e.g., birth dates, addresses, etc.). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to quantify this phenomenon and examine its relation to the classical Benford’s law. We use this connection to develop a choice model, and propose a method to set the appropriate sales limit in these games.     

New representations of the noncentral chi-square density and cumulative

Representations of noncentral chi-square cumulative distribution function and probability density function are reviewed and new repre¬sentations are given. One representation of the cdf in terms of an integral is easily computed on any machine which has an accurate algorithm for computing the normal cdf.     

Households’ precautionary behaviors—the effects of the introduction of National Health Insurance in Taiwan

By reducing risk of large out-of-pocket medical expenses, comprehensive social health insurance may reduce households’ motivation to engage in precautionary behaviors such as saving, procurement of private insurance, and spousal labor-force participation. We use the natural experiment provided by the 1995 introduction of National Health Insurance in Taiwan to examine these effects, using pre-existing differences in access to health insurance (tied to the household head’s and spouse’s joint employment status) to identify the effects of increasing insurance coverage. We find that comprehensive health insurance has a statistically significant and large effect on household savings, but no significant effects on purchase of private accident insurance and spousal employment.

Evaluating the Effectiveness and Efficiency of Hong Kong Welfare Programmes in Reducing Child Poverty

This paper examines the effectiveness and efficiency of welfare programmes that are relevant to child poverty reduction in Hong Kong. We employ data from a cross‐sectional survey of a representative sample of families, conducted in 2015 through face‐to‐face interviews. Our results indicate that all four welfare programmes were inadequate in alleviating child poverty. This was either due to the deep poverty gap to be filled or high rates of exclusion error. Most programmes are also inefficient because of inclusion error. We conclude by suggesting some policy implications for the welfare programmes.     

Combatting voter ignorance: a vertical model of epistocratic voting

In light of recent political events, prominent scholars have argued that voters ignorant of the issues should be disqualified from taking part in decisions that have the potential to alter political landscapes. As convincing as this literature is in highlighting voter ignorance, it fails to differentiate between local, state, and federal elections and how levels of political knowledge are often scale-dependent. If the level of median voter ignorance is not uniform from one level of government to the next, then neither can the reforms proposed to combat it. In this article, I adapt Bell’s vertical model of democratic meritocracy to argue that the larger the election, the more complex the issues, the more explicit the epistocratic safeguards needed.     

Poverty alleviation,coverage and fiscal sustainability: Investigating the effect of a new social pension in Hong Kong

This article synthesises the characteristics of social pensions across Asia and evaluates the effect of a new social pension in the Hong Kong SAR, the Old Age Living Allowance (OALA), on poverty alleviation, coverage rates and fiscal sustainability. We found that the effectiveness of the OALA in reducing old‐age poverty was limited, although it has led to an increase of retirement pension coverage by 6%. The OALA is projected to face substantial cost increases in the medium and longer term. Increasing the level of OALA benefits would be a direct means to enhance its poverty alleviation effect but may potentially be hampered by concerns about the fiscal sustainability of such changes. More obfuscated alternatives for Hong Kong policy makers to affect old‐age poverty alleviation include adjusting the indexing rules of benefit level payments and the eligibility criteria to reduce the stigma attached to the current policy choices.