Two phase parametric and probabilistic NPV calculations, with possible deferral of disposal of UK nuclear waste as an example

This paper illustrates the value of several particular features of a first phase parametric approach to discounted cash flow (DCF) decision analysis when significant uncertainty is involved. It also illustrates the value of second phase probabilistic approaches to selected parameters for five quite different example reasons. The most controversial example reason concerns the discount rate. The particular example used to illustrate both phases may stimulate general interest because of the important issues involved, but it is argued that the two phase approach as a whole has a wide range of applications for decisions large and small.     

Consistent Estimation of the Structural Distribution Function

Motivated by problems in linguistics we consider a multinomial random vector for which the number of cells N is not much smaller than the sum of the cell frequencies, i.e. the sample size n . The distribution function of the uniform distribution on the set of all cell probabilities multiplied by N is called the structural distribution function of the cell probabilities. Conditions are given that guarantee that the structural distribution function can be estimated consistently as n increases indefinitely although n / N does not. The natural estimator is inconsistent and we prove consistency of essentially two alternative estimators.     

Machine learning and design of experiments with an application to product innovation in the chemical industry

Industrial statistics plays a major role in the areas of both quality management and innovation. However, existing methodologies must be integrated with the latest tools from the field of Artificial Intelligence. To this end, a background on the joint application of Design of Experiments (DOE) and Machine Learning (ML) methodologies in industrial settings is presented here, along with a case study from the chemical industry. A DOE study is used to collect data, and two ML models are applied to predict responses which performance show an advantage over the traditional modeling approach. Emphasis is placed on causal investigation and quantification of prediction uncertainty, as these are crucial for an assessment of the goodness and robustness of the models developed. Within the scope of the case study, the models learned can be implemented in a semi-automatic system that can assist practitioners who are inexperienced in data analysis in the process of new product development.     

Continuity and change in work-life balance choices

This paper explores the ways in which the work-life balance choices made by heterosexual couples differ in different generations, how such choices are gendered, and the extent to which 'individualization' provides an adequate conceptualization of the effects of social change on heterosexual couples. It argues that processes of individualization need to be seen in the context of changing social institutions, and that it is the de-institutionalization of 'the family' and the life course that is leading to a de-gendering of work-life balance choices. The paper draws on findings from a restudy of the family and social change and a study of the gender dimensions of job insecurity both of which were carried out in the same geographical location. The studies provide evidence of generational change in work-life balance choices and increasing occupational differentiation between heterosexual partners. This leads to a situation where increasingly choices are made which blur gendered boundaries and which has been made possible by a process of de-institutionalization of the male breadwinner family. Our findings support the contention that processes of individualization are more apparent amongst younger than older generations and that, because of changes external to the family, there is more negotiation and pragmatism amongst younger generations about work-life choices.     

Effects of demography and urbanization on stress and body condition in urban white-tailed deer

Urban Ecosystems - White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) are becoming increasingly common in urban environments. How they respond to potential changes (i.e. increased human interactions,...     

Cultural Connection Predicts Perceptions of Financial Security for Māori

This paper examines the impact of relative income on income satisfaction with given absolute income. We conducted an experiment in China where participants earned three different levels of income according to their relative performance in a task. While the treatment group was informed about their relative income, the control group only knew their own absolute income. We found that while controlling for absolute income and other factors, information about relative income increases the satisfaction of the high-income group and reduces the satisfaction of the low-income group. Relative income may interact with individual characteristics, such as gender, to affect income satisfaction. We also found that relative income treatment significantly increases income satisfaction inequality, primarily by causing social comparisons among different income groups, which has some welfare implications.