Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans: What Might a Sociological Embeddedness Perspective Offer Disaster Research and Planning?

The Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans situation was commonly called a "natural disaster"—an anomalous "event" that disrupted lives, spaces, and organizations. Research and planning attention then focused on particular aspects of the event and on restoring order. In contrast, sociologists and similar-thinking scholars have increasingly viewed disaster situations from multiple locations and histories, often using systems theory. Here, reanalysis of empirical material from ethnographic research in New Orleans pre- and post-Katrina suggests that a sociological embeddedness perspective illustrates the dynamic seamlessness of past, present, and future economic contexts and social actions. The perspective's constitutive concepts of weak, strong, and differentiated ties highlight the role of local knowledge, intermediary-led workforce networks, and sustained participatory planning in creating a robust economic environment. Toward this end, disaster research, planning, and theory building could incorporate network tie assessments into social vulnerability protocols, compare embeddedness with other perspectives, and learn from related international experiences.     

Loaning Supplementary Benefit and the Introduction of the Social Fund

This paper discusses an episode in social security policy making that has until now remained unexplored. This is the review, at the request of then Labour Secretary of State for Social Services, Richard Crossman MP, in the latter months of 1969 and early 1970 into the possibility of introducing loans to the Supplementary Benefit system as a replacement for some exceptional needs and exceptional circumstances payments. The paper examines files held at the National Archives to discuss the nature and extent of the proposed scheme and the objections of civil servants to loaning Supplementary Benefit. The paper demonstrates how the worst‐case scenario outlined by civil servants in 1970 was introduced some 15 years later as Social Fund loans. The paper then discusses economic, ideological and social change that provided the context for the introduction of loans as part of the Social Fund in the 1980s.     

Third-generation prospect theory

We present a new theory of decision under uncertainty: third-generation prospect theory (PT³). This retains the predictive power of previous versions of prospect theory, but extends that theory by allowing reference points to be uncertain while decision weights are specified in a rank-dependent way. We show that PT³ preferences respect a state-conditional form of stochastic dominance. The theory predicts the observed tendency for willingness-to-accept valuations of lotteries to be greater than willingness-to-pay valuations. When PT³ is made operational by using simple functional forms with parameter values derived from existing experimental evidence, it predicts observed patterns of the preference reversal phenomenon.

Social Spaces beyond Civil Society: European Integration,Globalization and the Sociology of European Society

There has been a renewed interest in the idea of society of late. Sociological studies of globalization have posed the question of how to understand society without the nation-state, and studies of European Union (EU) integration have linked the non-emergence of a European society to the 'democratic deficit'. In both cases what is at issue is how to understand the social dynamics of transnational spaces. This paper advances three main arguments in relation to the idea of European society. First, despite its popularity, the concept of civil society is of limited use for understanding European society. Second, European society should not be seen as a unified and coherent whole but as a series of non-integrated, fragmented and autonomous public spheres. Third, European society cannot be understood in the singular. A plurality of European public and social spaces exist, often beyond the control of, or unrelated to, the EU or its member states. In short, European social spaces are not harmonious and cohesive, nor are they necessarily constituted by European integration.     

Consistent Estimation of the Structural Distribution Function

Motivated by problems in linguistics we consider a multinomial random vector for which the number of cells N is not much smaller than the sum of the cell frequencies, i.e. the sample size n . The distribution function of the uniform distribution on the set of all cell probabilities multiplied by N is called the structural distribution function of the cell probabilities. Conditions are given that guarantee that the structural distribution function can be estimated consistently as n increases indefinitely although n / N does not. The natural estimator is inconsistent and we prove consistency of essentially two alternative estimators.     

Survival Convergence and the Preceding Mortality Crossover for Two Population Subgroups

In this paper, we present and develop the argument that if the survival functions for two population subgroups converge in later life, a mortality crossover must precede the occurrence of this convergence. Specifically, two survival curves, S ₁(x) and S ₂(x), associated with two distinct population subgroups, G₁ and G₂, tend to converge before all members die out, as often observed and anticipated. This convergence leads to an increased mortality acceleration for the “advantaged” group, and eventually fosters the occurrence of a mortality crossover. We present a mathematical proof for this relationship and offer several explanations for the mechanisms involved in the process of survival convergence and the preceding mortality crossover. This new presentation demonstrates that mortality crossover is a highly observable demographic event given the trend of survival convergence in later life.     

Machine learning and design of experiments with an application to product innovation in the chemical industry

Industrial statistics plays a major role in the areas of both quality management and innovation. However, existing methodologies must be integrated with the latest tools from the field of Artificial Intelligence. To this end, a background on the joint application of Design of Experiments (DOE) and Machine Learning (ML) methodologies in industrial settings is presented here, along with a case study from the chemical industry. A DOE study is used to collect data, and two ML models are applied to predict responses which performance show an advantage over the traditional modeling approach. Emphasis is placed on causal investigation and quantification of prediction uncertainty, as these are crucial for an assessment of the goodness and robustness of the models developed. Within the scope of the case study, the models learned can be implemented in a semi-automatic system that can assist practitioners who are inexperienced in data analysis in the process of new product development.