Further specification of the leader political skill–leadership effectiveness relationships: Transformational and transactional leader behavior as mediators

The present investigation was a three-source test of the intermediate linkages in the leader political skill–leader effectiveness and follower satisfaction relationships, which examined transformational and transactional (i.e., contingent reward behavior) leader behavior as mediators. Data from 408 leaders (headmasters) and 1429 followers (teachers) of state schools in the western part of Germany participated in this research. The results of mediation analyses, based on bias-corrected bootstrapping confidence intervals, provided support for the hypotheses that political skill predicts both transformational and transactional leader behavior, beyond other established predictors, and that transformational and transactional leader behavior mediate the relationships between leader political skill and leadership effectiveness. The contributions to theory and research, strengths and limitations, directions for future research, and practical implications are discussed.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Amount of Publication Fees

Among the financing strategies available for Open Access (OA), the author-pays business model has received increasing attention. The consequences of this approach, however, for the system of scholarly communication and for publishing houses as participants in value added, have remained largely unclear. The paper presented here, therefore, analyzes the probable realistic magnitude of publishing fees in different subjects, based on empirical data. The paper shows that the most favorable conditions are met in the Natural Sciences and in Mathematics. However, the analysis also shows that publishing houses would have to raise publishing fees well beyond the level that scientists are willing to pay. Furthermore, the analysis leads to the conclusion that the amount of money currently available in the system of scholarly communication is probably not sufficient for the sustainable financing of publishing fees.     

Serial dependence and regression of Poisson INARMA models

Time series of counts occur in many fields of practice, with the Poisson distribution as a popular choice for the marginal process distribution. A great variety of serial dependence structures of stationary count processes can be modelled by the INARMA family. In this article, we propose a new approach to the INMA(q) family in general, including previously known results as special cases. In the particular case of Poisson marginals, we will derive new results concerning regression properties and the serial dependence structure of INAR(1) and INMA(q) models. Finally, we present explicit expressions for the distribution of jumps in such processes.     

On robust forecasting in dynamic vector time series models

In this article, robust estimation and prediction in multivariate autoregressive models with exogenous variables (VARX) are considered. The conditional least squares (CLS) estimators are known to be non-robust when outliers occur. To obtain robust estimators, the method introduced in Duchesne [2005. Robust and powerful serial correlation tests with new robust estimates in ARX models. J. Time Ser. Anal. 26, 49–81] and Bou Hamad and Duchesne [2005. On robust diagnostics at individual lags using RA-ARX estimators. In: Duchesne, P., Rémillard, B. (Eds.), Statistical Modeling and Analysis for Complex Data Problems. Springer, New York] is generalized for VARX models. The asymptotic distribution of the new estimators is studied and from this is obtained in particular the asymptotic covariance matrix of the robust estimators. Classical conditional prediction intervals normally rely on estimators such as the usual non-robust CLS estimators. In the presence of outliers, such as additive outliers, these classical predictions can be severely biased. More generally, the occurrence of outliers may invalidate the usual conditional prediction intervals. Consequently, the new robust methodology is used to develop robust conditional prediction intervals which take into account parameter estimation uncertainty. In a simulation study, we investigate the finite sample properties of the robust prediction intervals under several scenarios for the occurrence of the outliers, and the new intervals are compared to non-robust intervals based on classical CLS estimators.     

Effect of COVID-19 on Household Food Insecurity and Poverty: Evidence from Ghana

Social Indicators Research - Following the outbreak of COVID-19 and its heavy toll on the global community and humanity, a fierce debate on the pandemic and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)...     

Whom should we believe? Aggregation of heterogeneous beliefs

We examine the collective risk attitude of a group with heterogeneous beliefs. We prove that the wealth-dependent probability distribution used by the representative agent is biased in favor of the beliefs of the more risk tolerant consumers. Moreover, increasing disagreement on the state probability raises the state probability of the representative agent. It implies that when most disagreements are concentrated in the tails of the distribution, the perceived collective risk is magnified. This can help to solve the equity premium puzzle. We show that the trade volume and the equity premium are positively correlated.

The economics of adding and subdividing independent risks: Some comparative statics results

In this paper we address the problem of determining whether adding independent risks or subdividing them is a good substitute for insurance. Despite the fact that accepting more i.i.d. risks increases total risk, it is shown that some risk-averse decision makers can rationally reduce their demand for insurance by doing so. Similarly, a better diversified portfolio of i.i.d. risky assets can rationally be more insured, even if diversification is a risk-reduction scheme. We derive conditions sufficient to obtain unambiguous comparative statics results. Assuming that absolute risk aversion is decreasing and that the fourth derivative of the utility function is positive, we show that diversification is an exceptionally good substitute for insurance. Under the same conditions, adding independent risks to wealth reduces the demand for insurance on each unit.     

Differences in the Seriousness of Problems and Deservingness of Help: Swedish Social Workers' Assessments of Single Mothers and Fathers

In this vignette study, three hypotheses concerning differencesin social workers’ assessment off single fathers and mothersare tested: first, that single fathers with custody of theirchildren, who have problems similar to those often faced bysingle mothers, are assessed as having more serious problemsthan the mothers; secondly, that single fathers in such a situationtend to be assessed as being less deserving of support thansingle mothers in the same situation; thirdly, that the helpoffered to both sexes follows gender-traditional patterns. Theresults support the hypotheses. The overall problems and mentalhealth tended to be assessed as more serious in the case ofthe father than in the case of the mother. The single fatherwas assessed as being more responsible for his situation. Thesingle mother was assessed as being in need of assistance inmore areas and more varied social welfare measures were recommendedfor her than for the father. Finally, the results also showthat only support which could enable the client to obtain paidwork and be able to pay off the debts on his car was given higherpriority in the case of the father.