Estimation of geodesic tortuosity and constrictivity in stationary random closed sets

We investigate the problem of estimating geodesic tortuosity and constrictivity as two structural characteristics of stationary random closed sets. They are of central importance for the analysis of effective transport properties in porous or composite materials. Loosely speaking, geodesic tortuosity measures the windedness of paths, whereas the notion of constrictivity captures the appearance of bottlenecks resulting from narrow passages within a given materials phase. We first provide mathematically precise definitions of these quantities and introduce appropriate estimators. Then, we show strong consistency of these estimators for unboundedly growing sampling windows. In order to apply our estimators to real data sets, the extent of edge effects needs to be controlled. This is illustrated using a model for a multiphase material that is incorporated in solid oxide fuel cells.     

Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence

Lifetime Data Analysis - CD4-based multi-state back-calculation methods are key for monitoring the HIV epidemic, providing estimates of HIV incidence and diagnosis rates by disentangling their...     

REAL EXCHANGE RATE,MONETARY POLICY,AND THE U.S. ECONOMY: EVIDENCE FROM A FAVAR MODEL

This paper examines the effects of exchange rate depreciation to the U.S. economy in a factor‐augmented vector autoregression model using monthly data of 148 variables for the post–Bretton Woods period of 1973–2017. Exchange rate shock is identified to reflect exogenous disturbances to the foreign exchange market, and movements in exchange rate that are not accounted for by changes in the U.S. monetary policy. We find that depreciation is expansionary and inflationary to the broad U.S. economy, the current account improves over time conforming to the J‐curve theory, and monetary policy is leaning against the wind. (JEL E3, E5, F31, F32, F41)     

L'effet des obstacles aux échanges sur l'emploi généré par les chaînes d'approvisionnement mondiales

Les auteurs étudient l'effet des obstacles aux échanges internationaux de biens et de services sur les marchés du travail des pays producteurs en partant des estimations du BIT sur l'emploi imputable aux chaînes d'approvisionnement mondiales. L'analyse empirique confirme largement les prédictions d'un modèle théorique calibré avec des données de la base WIOD (2000 et 2011). Les obstacles au commerce de produits manufacturés ou de services ont un effet transfrontalier, intrasectoriel et intersectoriel, sur l'emploi, qui reflète l'interdépendance croissante entre pays et secteurs. L'effet intersectoriel s'affirme avec le temps. Les politiques commerciales semblent donc pouvoir avoir des effets externes importants sur les marchés du travail étrangers.     

The impact of the European Youth Guarantee on active labour market policies: A convergence analysis

The European Union’s (EU) Youth Guarantee aims to improve the labour market situation of young people. Rather than prescribing a uniform policy model, it acknowledges that supportive measures need to align with national, regional and local circumstances. It thus seeks to promote mutual policy learning through the open method of coordination. As an innovative measure, the EU has deployed funding programmes to support the domestic measures related to the Youth Guarantee. We therefore examined in this study whether this mix of recommendations and financial incentives has entailed a convergence of member state policies. Our analysis of policy outputs for the period 2007?2014 yields a mixed empirical picture. There is catching‐up convergence regarding policies’ sectoral coverage but increasing divergence concerning the number of adopted policy instruments. The first two years of financial incentives did not produce any effect on enhancing policy experimentation among less active member states. We offer an optimistic and a pessimistic interpretation of these findings.     

军事熟语的文化特征

军事熟语是在中华民族的长期语言实践中反复加工锤炼而成的哲理性语言.它具有客观辩证的思维方式:联系发展的动态理念和把握全局的宏观视角;具有历史性:以谋为本的文化倾向,以治为胜的治军传统和追求全胜的最高境界;具有民族性:爱好和平的心理愿望和团结一心的民族气节.     

The Legacy of the Great Recession in Italy: A Wider Geographical,Gender, and Generational Gap in Working Life Expectancy

Under the pressure of population aging the Italian pension system has undergone reforms to increase labor force participation and retirement age, and, thus, the length of working life. However, how the duration of working life has developed in recent years is not well understood. This paper is the first to analyze trends in working life expectancy in Italy. We use data from a nationally representative longitudinal sample of 880,000 individuals from 2003 to 2013 and estimate working life expectancy by gender, occupational category, and region of residence using a Markov chain approach. We document large and increasing heterogeneity in the length of working life. From 2003–2004 to 2012–2013, working life expectancy for men declined from 35.2 to 27.2 years and for women from 34.7 to 23.7 years, increasing the gender gap to 3.5 years. Both young and old were hit, as roughly half of the decline was attributable to ages below 40, half above 40. Working life expectancy declined for all occupational groups, but those in manual occupations lost most, 8.5 years (men) and 10.5 years (women). The North–South economic gradient widened such that men living in the North were expected to work 8 years longer than women living in the South. The fraction of working life of total life expectancy at age 15 declined to record lows at 40% for men and 34% for women in 2012–2013. Policies aiming at increasing total population working life expectancy need to take into consideration the socio-demographic disparities highlighted by our results.

     

Evaluating school and parent reports of the national student achievement testing system (SIMCE) in Chile: Access,comprehension, and use

This evaluation examined school and parent reports of the national student achievement testing system (SIMCE) in Chile regarding three dimensions: access, comprehension, and use. We conducted phone surveys with a representative sample of directors (N = 375), teachers (N = 1145) and parents (N = 625), and we collected more in-depth data through interviews and focus groups in 16 of these schools. The results indicate that access to the reports is not an obstacle to use for school actors, but it is for parents. While summative ratings of the reports in terms of their clarity and utility were generally very positive, the actual recall and interpretation of even basic information (assessed through case scenarios) was incorrect for a majority of teachers and parents, and reported uses of the information were both intended and unintended in nature. We also found some statistically significant differences regarding comprehension and use among subgroups of our sample. Our findings are especially relevant given the expectations attached to the use of the reports for school improvement on the one hand, and parents’ behavior as critical consumers of education on the other hand.     

When being overpaid makes me feel good about myself: It depends on how the other feels

The present research examined whether the emotions of others (i.e., disappointment versus happiness with respect to a received outcome) influence own self-esteem when being overpaid. Results from two experiments demonstrated that participants reported higher performance self-esteem when the other expressed happiness rather than disappointment. This effect was only found in the condition where one was overpaid relative to the condition where one did not yet know one’s own outcome. In the second experimental study we further found that this interaction between the emotion of the other and the distribution situation only emerged among participants low (relative to high) in personal need for structure. Implications with respect to the relationship between overpayment and self-esteem and the interpersonal effects of emotions in this process are discussed.     

A model of substance abuse risk: adapting to the Sri Lankan context

This study translated and validated the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale (SURPS) among 13 to 18 year old Sri Lankan adolescents attending school. A standard systematic translation procedure was followed to translate the original SURPS into Sinhala language. A Delphi process was conducted to determine judgmental validity of Sinhala SURPS. Confirmatory factor analysis was performed to test the translated version against the original theoretical model of the SURPS. Test-retest and internal consistency were used to ensure reliability. A few terms in one of the items posed some difficulty in translating into Sinhala. Adequate judgmental validity was determined except for one item, which was modified to suit the Sri Lankan setting. The four subscales introversion/ hopelessness, impulsivity, sensation seeking and anxiety sensitivity showed satisfactory test-retest reliability estimates of .74, .68, .76, and .88, respectively. The Sinhala SURPS is applicable in Sri Lankan context. Several implications based on the results are discussed.