Correlation in a Bayesian framework

The authors consider the correlation between two arbitrary functions of the data and a parameter when the parameter is regarded as a random variable with given prior distribution. They show how to compute such a correlation and use closed form expressions to assess the dependence between parameters and various classical or robust estimators thereof, as well as between p‐values and posterior probabilities of the null hypothesis in the one‐sided testing problem. Other applications involve the Dirichlet process and stationary Gaussian processes. Using this approach, the authors also derive a general nonparametric upper bound on Bayes risks.     

Estimation of geodesic tortuosity and constrictivity in stationary random closed sets

We investigate the problem of estimating geodesic tortuosity and constrictivity as two structural characteristics of stationary random closed sets. They are of central importance for the analysis of effective transport properties in porous or composite materials. Loosely speaking, geodesic tortuosity measures the windedness of paths, whereas the notion of constrictivity captures the appearance of bottlenecks resulting from narrow passages within a given materials phase. We first provide mathematically precise definitions of these quantities and introduce appropriate estimators. Then, we show strong consistency of these estimators for unboundedly growing sampling windows. In order to apply our estimators to real data sets, the extent of edge effects needs to be controlled. This is illustrated using a model for a multiphase material that is incorporated in solid oxide fuel cells.     

L'effet des obstacles aux échanges sur l'emploi généré par les chaînes d'approvisionnement mondiales

Les auteurs étudient l'effet des obstacles aux échanges internationaux de biens et de services sur les marchés du travail des pays producteurs en partant des estimations du BIT sur l'emploi imputable aux chaînes d'approvisionnement mondiales. L'analyse empirique confirme largement les prédictions d'un modèle théorique calibré avec des données de la base WIOD (2000 et 2011). Les obstacles au commerce de produits manufacturés ou de services ont un effet transfrontalier, intrasectoriel et intersectoriel, sur l'emploi, qui reflète l'interdépendance croissante entre pays et secteurs. L'effet intersectoriel s'affirme avec le temps. Les politiques commerciales semblent donc pouvoir avoir des effets externes importants sur les marchés du travail étrangers.     

Psychological Vulnerability and Problem Gambling: The Mediational Role of Cognitive Distortions

Despite numerous studies demonstrating the influence of cognitive distortions on gambling problem severity, empirical data regarding the role of psychological vulnerability on the latter is limited. Hence, this study assesses the mediating effect of cognitive distortions between psychological vulnerability (personality and mood), and gambling problem severity. It also verifies whether the relationships between these variables differs according to the preferred gambling activity. The sample is composed of 272 male gamblers [191 poker players; 81 video lottery terminal (VLT) players] aged between 18 and 82 years (M = 35.2). Bootstrap analysis results revealed that cognitive distortions mediate the effect of narcissism on gambling problem severity for both groups. The level of depression for VLT players significantly predicted gambling problem severity, both directly and indirectly via the mediating effect of cognitive distortions. Mediation analyses also indicated that narcissism had an indirect impact on problem gambling through cognitive distortions for both groups. These findings suggest that certain vulnerabilities related to personality and mood may influence cognitive distortion intensity and gambling problem severity. In addition, psychological vulnerabilities could differ based on preferred gambling activity. These results may be useful for prevention policies, identifying high risk gamblers and planning psychological interventions.     

Self-Directed Gambling Changes: Trajectory of Problem Gambling Severity in Absence of Treatment

Most problem gamblers do not seek formal treatment, recovering on their own through cognitive re-appraisal or self-help strategies. Although barriers to treatment have been extensively studied, there is a paucity of research on self-directed changes in problem gambling and very few studies have examined these changes prospectively. The aim of this study was to examine the trajectory of gambling severity and behavior change over an 18-month period, among a sample of non-treatment seeking/attending problem gamblers recruited from the community (N?=?204) interested in quitting or reducing gambling. Separate mixed effects models revealed that in absence of formal treatment, significant reductions in gambling severity, frequency, and amount gambled could be observed over the course of a 6 to 9-month period and that changes experienced within the first 12 months were maintained for an extended 6 months. Problem gambling severity at baseline was significantly associated with changes in severity over time, such that participants with more severe gambling problems demonstrated greater reductions in their gambling severity over time. A total of 11.1% of participants gambled within a low-risk threshold at 18 months, although 28.7% of the sample reported consecutive gambling severity scores below problem levels for the duration of 1 year or longer. The findings suggest that among problem gamblers motivated to quit or reduce their gambling, significant self-directed changes in gambling severity can occur over a relatively short time. Additional prospective studies are needed to document the role of specific self-help tools or thought processes in exacting gambling changes.     

Undercover policing and the spectre of ‘domestic extremism’: the covert surveillance of environmental activism in Britain

The spectre of environmental ‘domestic extremism’ has long been postulated by police leaders and security analysts in Britain. It is a narrative that has justified the commitment of enormous amounts of government resources towards police intelligence work directed at non-violent direct action campaigns. Most controversially, this has included the long-term infiltration of environmental (and other) activist groups by undercover police. This article provides a critical analysis of the justifications put forward in support of the covert surveillance of environmental activists in Britain. The paper proceeds by way of a single case study – a high profile, environmental direct action protest in the north of England – in order to reveal the levels of abuse, manipulation and deception at the basis of undercover protest policing. Through their court case, the activists involved with this action were able to obtain rare insights into the police authorisation documents for the undercover operation that had led to their arrests. An analysis of these documents provides us with a glimpse of the contradictory justifications given by senior police officers for infiltration – now under scrutiny by a public inquiry.     

Nah der Wissenschaft und fern der Führung in einer Fach‑/Expertenlaufbahn?

In order to motivate and retain technical employees, representatives of strategic career management face the challenge of establishing alternative career paths in addition to the common leadership/management career. Surveying a sample of 629 doctorate holders from the STEM fields, we differentiated between five career paths within and beyond structured career models. Structured career ladders were predominantly present in major enterprises. Female participants less frequently reported to be part of a structured career path. Entering a leadership/management career seems to occur at a later stage compared to other paths. Generally, advancement on a leadership/management path was related to stronger increases in incentives than climbing up the technical/expert or project management ladders. Contrary to our expectations, we did not find members of a technical/expert career to work closer to basic research and their initial qualification than their colleagues on other career paths. Members of leadership/management paths reported to have significantly more leadership responsibility than those working on alternative paths.     

Trust and Society: Suggestions for Further Development of Niklas Luhmann's Theory of Trust

This paper addresses an apparent gap in the work of Niklas Luhmann. While the issue of trust continues to receive widespread attention in the social sciences, Luhmann's interest in this topic declined following the development of his systems theory. It is argued that this decline does not reflect any diminished relevance of trust for systems theory, but rather that the architectural remodeling of theory cannot easily be applied to the issue of trust. Here, the issue of trust is reconceptualized as a connection medium. This entails a reconstruction of Luhmann's early theory of trust, especially with regard to function and social positioning. In this context, trust can in turn be linked to the concept of medium in Luhmann's late work. As a connection medium, trust mediates between the different levels of sociality—interaction, organization, and society. These theoretical considerations are employed to develop a more applied framework for empirical research, with a brief case study from southern Italy. From this perspective, the idea of trust as society's glue is seen to be overly simplistic. The common ethical understanding that more trust leads to a better society is also questioned on the grounds that social cooperation can also lead to social sclerosis. Finally, risk and trust are shown to accommodate the formation of different cultures of trust. The paper shows how Luhmann's updated version of trust can inspire current research and enhance our understanding of how trust operates in contemporary society.     

Wer ist in Deutschland willkommen?Who is welcome in Germany?

Germany is currently experiencing a huge inflow of migrants. In this vignette study, we analyze how much different kinds of migrants are accepted in Germany. We investigate three different rights for migrants: the right to stay in Germany, the right to work in Germany and the right to receive social benefits. Our results show that people who flee from political persecution are much more accepted compared to migrants who come because of economic reasons. This is particularly true for the right to receive social benefits. On the other hand, our results suggest that there is a strong preference for high-skilled and culturally non-distant migrants. Concerns regarding individual competition on the job market seem to play only a minor role.     

Watching online videos interactively: the impact of media capabilities in Chinese Danmaku video sites

In China, the implementation of a Danmaku social media system to sustain and raise user interest in online video sites is an increasingly widespread phenomenon. Danmaku technology is used to display users’ messages in written text on the online video stream. Little is known about the effects of this form of interactive enhancement. The aim of this empirical study is to evaluate the evolving media capabilities of the Danmaku system and their effects on users’ perceptions of interactivity and their intentions to continue using Danmaku. We draw on media synchronicity theory and apply it to a stimulus-organism-response model. Using this framework, we hypothesize that the media capabilities of the Danmaku system, namely its transmission velocity, parallelism, symbol sets, rehearsability, and reprocessability, elicit increased interactivity, which influences users’ instantaneous intentions to share and to continue the use of the Danmaku system. The results showed that both users’ instantaneous intention to share and their intention to continue to use were significantly affected by the perceived interactivity. Unlike the results of previous studies, our findings showed that all five media capabilities positively affected the users’ perceptions of interactivity. The potential theoretical and practical implications of our findings are discussed.