Strategic investment decisions in multi-stage contests with heterogeneous players

When heterogeneous players make strategic investment decisions in multi-stage contests, they might conserve resources in a current contest to spend more in a subsequent contest, if the degree of heterogeneity in the current (subsequent) contest is sufficiently large (small). We confirm these predictions using data from German professional soccer, in which players are subject to a one-match ban if they accumulate five yellow cards. Players with four yellow cards facing the risk of being suspended for the next match are (i) less likely to be fielded when the heterogeneity in the current match increases and (ii) more likely to receive a fifth yellow card in the current match when heterogeneity in the next match increases or heterogeneity in the next match but one (when they return from their ban) decreases.

     

HOW DO INFORMAL AGREEMENTS AND REVISION SHAPE CONTRACTUAL REFERENCE POINTS?

The notion of contracts as reference points provides the basis for a deeper understanding of important phenomena such as the employment contract, vertical integration, firm scope, authority, and delegation. Previous experiments lend support to this notion but they ignore realistic aspects of trading relationships such as informal agreements and ex‐post renegotiation or revision. Here we show that the central behavioral mechanism underlying contractual reference points is robust to such considerations. Our data reveal that informal agreements can mitigate the trade‐off between rigidity and flexibility but they do not fully resolve the problem of misaligned reference points. Our experiments also show that contract revision is a more nuanced process than the previous literature has recognized. We find, for example, that it is sometimes better for parties to write a simple (rigid) contract and then revise it ex post if needed, rather than to anticipate and include future contingencies in a (flexible) contract from the outset.     

Pension reform and labor market incentives

This paper investigates how parametric reform in a pay-as-you-go pension system with a tax–benefit link affects retirement and work incentives of prime-age workers. We find that postponed retirement tends to harm incentives of prime-age workers in the presence of a tax–benefit link, thereby creating a policy trade-off in stimulating aggregate labor supply. We show how several popular reform scenarios are geared either towards young or old workers or, indeed, both groups under appropriate conditions. We characterize the excess burden of pension insurance and show how it depends on the supply elasticities of both decision margins and the effective tax rates.     

Predicting online gambling self-exclusion: an analysis of the performance of supervised machine learning models

As gambling operators become increasingly sophisticated in their analysis of individual gambling behaviour, this study evaluates the potential for using machine learning techniques to identify individuals who used self-exclusion tools out of a sample of 845 online gamblers, based on analysing trends in their gambling behaviour. Being able to identify other gamblers whose behaviour is similar to those who decided to use self-exclusion tools could, for instance, be used to share responsible gaming messages or other information that aids self-aware gambling and reduces the risk of adverse outcomes. However, operators need to understand how accurate models can be and which techniques work well. The purpose of the article is to identify the most accurate technique out of four highly diverse techniques and to discuss how to deal analytically and practically with a rare event like self-exclusion, which was used by fewer than 1% of gamblers in our data-set. We conclude that balanced training data-sets are necessary for creating effective models and that, on our data-set, the most effective method is the random forest technique which achieves an accuracy improvement of 35 percentage points versus baseline estimates.     

Romani culture and academic success: arguments against the belief in a contradiction

Roma, today perceived as the most numerous European minority, face marginalisation and exclusion. Education is considered to be one of the focal points for improvement, and numerous studies have analysed and reported on the educational situation of Roma. Several studies have argued that Romani cultural values are not compatible with institutional schooling and that Romani families perceive schools as an alien institution. Other studies have drawn upon cultural–ecological theory (CE theory), developed by Ogbu and colleagues, and argue that the Romani cultural frame of reference is oppositional to academic success and thus suggest that successful Romani students distance themselves from Romani culture. The paper discusses the application of CE theory in the context of the academic discourse about the educational achievement of Romani students. Drawing on interviews with Spanish Romani university students, the paper argues that Romani students themselves challenge the assumption that educational success leads to cultural alienation.     

Field study of age-differentiated strain for assembly line workers in the automotive industry

A field study in an automotive supply industry company was conducted to explore age-differentiated strain of assembly line workers. Subjective and objective data from 23 female workers aged between 27 and 57 years were collected at the workplace belt buckle assembly during morning shifts. Subjects with medication or chronic diseases affecting heart rate and breath rate were excluded. For subjective data generation different questionnaires were used. Before the Work Ability Index and the Munich Chronotype Questionnaire were completed by the subjects. Short questionnaires (strain-ratings, NASA-TLX) directly at begin and end of the work were used for obtaining shift-related data. During the whole shift (6 a.m. - 2.45 p.m.) bodily functions were logged with a wireless chest strap. In addition, the motion of the hand-arm-system was recorded for 30 times, 3 minutes each after a fixed time-schedule. First results show that younger subjects need significant less time for assembly (mean = 14.940 s) compared to older subjects (mean = 17.040 s; t(472.026) = -9.278 , p < 0.01).     

An evaluability assessment of a West Africa based Non-Governmental Organization's (NGO) progressive evaluation strategy

While program evaluations are increasingly valued by international organizations to inform practices and public policies, actual evaluation use (EU) in such contexts is inconsistent. Moreover, empirical literature on EU in the context of humanitarian Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) is very limited. The current article focuses on the evaluability assessment (EA) of a West-Africa based humanitarian NGO's progressive evaluation strategy. Since 2007, the NGO has established an evaluation strategy to inform its maternal and child health care user-fee exemption intervention. Using Wholey's (2004) framework, the current EA enabled us to clarify with the NGO's evaluation partners the intent of their evaluation strategy and to design its program logic model. The EA ascertained the plausibility of the evaluation strategy's objectives, the accessibility of relevant data, and the utility for intended users of evaluating both the evaluation strategy and the conditions that foster EU. Hence, key evaluability conditions for an EU study were assured. This article provides an example of EA procedures when such guidance is scant in the literature. It also offers an opportunity to analyze critically the use of EAs in the context of a humanitarian NGO's collaboration with evaluators and political actors.     

The effects of family therapies for adolescent delinquency and substance abuse: a meta-analysis

This meta-analysis summarizes results from k = 24 studies comparing either Brief Strategic Family Therapy, Functional Family Therapy, Multidimensional Family Therapy, or Multisystemic Therapy to either treatment-as-usual, an alternative therapy, or a control group in the treatment of adolescent substance abuse and delinquency. Additionally, the authors reviewed and applied three advanced meta-analysis methods including influence analysis, multivariate meta-analysis, and publication bias analyses. The results suggested that as a group the four family therapies had statistically significant, but modest effects as compared to treatment-as-usual (d = 0.21; k = 11) and as compared to alternative therapies (d = 0.26; k = 11). The effect of family therapy compared to control was larger (d = 0.70; k = 4) but was not statistically significant probably because of low power. There was insufficient evidence to determine whether the various models differed in their effectiveness relative to each other. Influence analyses suggested that three studies had a large effect on aggregate effect sizes and heterogeneity statistics. Moderator and multivariate analyses were largely underpowered but will be useful as this literature grows.     

Involving People with Profound and Multiple Learning Disabilities in Social Work Education: Building Inclusive Practice

Abstract

Service user and carer engagement is a foundational requirement of social work education. Despite this, questions remain about how diverse experiences are represented and who might be excluded from involvement. This paper focusses on one group of people who it is suggested are excluded from involvement, people with profound and multiple learning disabilities. Evidence is presented which demonstrates the extent to which this group have been marginalised and excluded from processes of involvement. The paper then provides a case study of one universities’ experience of developing work in this area, when a man with profound and multiple learning disabilities was commissioned to design and deliver specialist teaching for a group of qualifying social work students. We argue that the main barrier to inclusive involvement for people with profound and multiple learning disabilities is the attitudes and assumption of others about what they are capable of. We demonstrate how involvement in social work education helps to address these barriers by challenging the assumptions of students, the academy and society more broadly.