The U.S. Forest Service and Its Responsibilities under the National Environmental Policy Act: A Work Design Problem

The U.S. Forest Service’s responsibilities under the National Environmental Policy Act entail a wide range of activities including scoping, scientific analysis, social and economic analysis, managing public input and involvement, media relations, regulatory analysis, and litigation. These myriad duties raise several important organizational and management questions. First, is the U.S. Forest Service capable of discharging these widely varying tasks with high levels of effectiveness and efficiency? To what extent should these activities be outsourced to private contractors or other providers? For those responsibilities retained in-house, what organizational structure best supports their effective and efficient execution? To address these questions, this article draws on concepts from new institutional economics and insights from the privatization and strategic organizational design literatures.     

Disentangling Constituency and Legislator Effects in Legislative Representation: Black Legislators or Black Districts?*

Objective. Does the race of a legislator or does the black population of a district best predict legislative roll‐call voting in the interests of African Americans? Due to methodological limitations, no prior study has found that both the race of the legislator and the black district population are significant predictors of congressional roll‐call voting. Drawing on post Shaw v. Reno/Miller v. Johnson congressional districts (with greater data variance), I examine the effect of these two racial representation variables on roll‐call voting in the 104th–106th Congresses. Methods. Linear regression with random effects is employed in two statistical models. Results. Even when the black district population and party are considered, the presence of an African‐American legislator leads to greater substantive representation of black constituents. Conclusion. Districting plans that maximize the election of black legislators and Democrats are the most important for the aggregate enhancement of liberal voting in Congress, while districting plans that maximize black district populations and Democrats are the most important for the aggregate enhancement of civil rights voting records in Congress.     

Intradimensional Single-Peakedness and the Multidimensional Arrow Problem

Arrow's account (1951/1963) of the problem of social choice is based upon the assumption that the preferences of each individual in the relevant group are expressible by a single ordering. This paper lifts that assumption and develops a multidimensional generalization of Arrow's framework. I show that, like Arrow's original framework, the multidimensional generalization is affected by an impossibility theorem, highlighting not only the threat of dictatorship of a single individual, but also the threat of dominance of a single dimension. In particular, even if preferences are single-peaked across individuals within each dimension – a situation called intradimensional single-peakedness – any aggregation procedure satisfying Arrow-type conditions will make one dimension dominant. I introduce lexicographic hierarchies of dimensions as a class of possible aggregation procedures under intradimensional single-peakedness. The interpretation of the results is discussed.     

Strategic investment decisions in multi-stage contests with heterogeneous players

When heterogeneous players make strategic investment decisions in multi-stage contests, they might conserve resources in a current contest to spend more in a subsequent contest, if the degree of heterogeneity in the current (subsequent) contest is sufficiently large (small). We confirm these predictions using data from German professional soccer, in which players are subject to a one-match ban if they accumulate five yellow cards. Players with four yellow cards facing the risk of being suspended for the next match are (i) less likely to be fielded when the heterogeneity in the current match increases and (ii) more likely to receive a fifth yellow card in the current match when heterogeneity in the next match increases or heterogeneity in the next match but one (when they return from their ban) decreases.

     

HOW DO INFORMAL AGREEMENTS AND REVISION SHAPE CONTRACTUAL REFERENCE POINTS?

The notion of contracts as reference points provides the basis for a deeper understanding of important phenomena such as the employment contract, vertical integration, firm scope, authority, and delegation. Previous experiments lend support to this notion but they ignore realistic aspects of trading relationships such as informal agreements and ex‐post renegotiation or revision. Here we show that the central behavioral mechanism underlying contractual reference points is robust to such considerations. Our data reveal that informal agreements can mitigate the trade‐off between rigidity and flexibility but they do not fully resolve the problem of misaligned reference points. Our experiments also show that contract revision is a more nuanced process than the previous literature has recognized. We find, for example, that it is sometimes better for parties to write a simple (rigid) contract and then revise it ex post if needed, rather than to anticipate and include future contingencies in a (flexible) contract from the outset.     

Resolution of Godambe's paradox

Two versions of a statistical paradox involving an ancillarity principle have recently been proposed by Godambe (1979, 1982). In this note, we point out that the two versions of his paradox are actually quite different, and we resolve both of them by investigating their relationship to randomization. The first version of Godambe's paradox was criticized earlier by Good (1980), but we believe his argument to be flawed.     

Bootstrap adaptive estimation: The trimmed-mean example

We consider the problem of choosing among a class of possible estimators by selecting the estimator with the smallest bootstrap estimate of finite sample variance. This is an alternative to using cross-validation to choose an estimator adaptively. The problem of a confidence interval based on such an adaptive estimator is considered. We illustrate the ideas by applying the method to the problem of choosing the trimming proportion of an adaptive trimmed mean. It is shown that a bootstrap adaptive trimmed mean is asymptotically normal with an asymptotic variance equal to the smallest among trimmed means. The asymptotic coverage probability of a bootstrap confidence interval based on such adaptive estimators is shown to have the nominal level. The intervals based on the asymptotic normality of the estimator share the same asymptotic result, but have poor small-sample properties compared to the bootstrap intervals. A small-sample simulation demonstrates that bootstrap adaptive trimmed means adapt themselves rather well even for samples of size 10.     

Worldwide research output in probability and statistics: An update

The authors update the work of Genest (1997, 1999) on world research output in probability and statistics. The rankings they produce of countries and institutions are based on a survey of papers published between 1986 and 2000 in 25 specialized journals of high reputation in these two fields. The contribution of Canadian probabilists and statisticians is highlighted.     

Gender differences of psychological abuse in high school dating relationships

It is becoming increasingly evident that physical abuse is often accompanied by psychological abuse in marital as well as college dating relationships. However, no known research has been conducted to examine psychological abuse in the high school population, nor have gender differences been explored in relationship to psychological abuse of high school students. For this study, the Psychological Maltreatment of Women Inventory (PMWI) has been modified so that it could explore the experiences of psychological abuse of 736 male and female respondents from a large Midwest school.T-tests were performed to examine gender differences of overall and individual scores of psychological abuse. Loglinear analysis was used to examine relationships between psychological abuse, severity of physical abuse and stage of the dating relationship. Results indicated that overall, there was little psychological abuse occurring in high school dating relationships, but detected six items of specific gender differences. It was found that dating couples were likely to experience significantly more psychological abuse in relationships where severe physical violence was occurring. No significant interactions were found between psychological abuse, gender, and the various stages of the dating relationship, i.e. casual dating, serious dating. Although overall, minimal psychological abuse was found, regression analysis indicated a significant relationship between total physical violence and six individual psychological abuse items. Findings are compared to the literature on college dating violence and marital abuse.