Eliciting risk preferences: When is simple better?

We study the estimation of risk preferences with experimental data and focus on the trade-offs when choosing between two different elicitation methods that have different degrees of difficulty for subjects. We analyze how and when a simpler, but coarser, elicitation method may be preferred to the more complex, but finer, one. Results indicate that the more complex measure has overall superior predictive accuracy, but its downside is that subjects exhibit noisier behavior. Our main result is that subjects’ numerical skills can help better assess this tradeoff: the simpler task may be preferred for subjects who exhibit low numeracy, as it generates less noisy behavior but similar predictive accuracy. For subjects with higher numerical skills, the greater predictive accuracy of the more complex task more than outweighs the larger noise. We also explore preference heterogeneity and provide methodological suggestions for future work.     

Abandon Statistical Significance

ABSTRACT

We discuss problems the null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) paradigm poses for replication and more broadly in the biomedical and social sciences as well as how these problems remain unresolved by proposals involving modified p-value thresholds, confidence intervals, and Bayes factors. We then discuss our own proposal, which is to abandon statistical significance. We recommend dropping the NHST paradigm—and the p-value thresholds intrinsic to it—as the default statistical paradigm for research, publication, and discovery in the biomedical and social sciences. Specifically, we propose that the p-value be demoted from its threshold screening role and instead, treated continuously, be considered along with currently subordinate factors (e.g., related prior evidence, plausibility of mechanism, study design and data quality, real world costs and benefits, novelty of finding, and other factors that vary by research domain) as just one among many pieces of evidence. We have no desire to “ban” p-values or other purely statistical measures. Rather, we believe that such measures should not be thresholded and that, thresholded or not, they should not take priority over the currently subordinate factors. We also argue that it seldom makes sense to calibrate evidence as a function of p-values or other purely statistical measures. We offer recommendations for how our proposal can be implemented in the scientific publication process as well as in statistical decision making more broadly.     

Social workers' attitudes towards the unemployed in the Nordic countries

Kallio J, Blomberg H, Kroll C. Social workers' attitudes towards the unemployed in the Nordic countries In recent decades, municipal social workers have become the implementers of new types of social policy measures aimed at activating the unemployed. These policies put a greater emphasis on the individual's own responsibility for being unemployed. Little is known, however, about how social workers view the unemployed – one factor that might influence how policies are in fact implemented. Therefore, our purpose was to analyse Nordic social workers' attitudes towards the unemployed and their determinants: Do social workers' attitudes correspond with a more individualistic view on unemployment? We utilised the data from surveys of professional social workers in four Nordic countries. Our analyses showed that individualistic attitudes towards the unemployed appeared to be rather rare among Nordic social workers. However, attitudinal differences were found between and within countries.     

Promoting social Europe? The development of European youth unemployment policies

Since the beginning of the millennium, the institutions of the European Union have intensified their political efforts to combat youth employment. Youth‐specific policy initiatives were launched after the financial and economic crisis of 2008, and the overall subsequent rise of unemployment rates among young people. In this article, we analyse and assess these developments on the basis of an analysis of European policy documents and interviews. Our conclusions are twofold. One, we argue that the Europe 2020 Strategy and its flagship initiatives devoted to youth do not constitute a new policy field or approach, but are rather the outcome of an incrementalist logic of policy development. Two, the European youth strategy is clearly committed to activation, and it pushes policy developments towards a minimalist policy approach of precarious protection. Both developments are explained by the actor constellations and path dependencies of the European policy arena.     

Propositionwise judgment aggregation: the general case

In the theory of judgment aggregation, it is known for which agendas of propositions it is possible to aggregate individual judgments into collective ones in accordance with the Arrow-inspired requirements of universal domain, collective rationality, unanimity preservation, non-dictatorship and propositionwise independence. But it is only partially known (e.g., only in the monotonic case) for which agendas it is possible to respect additional requirements, notably non-oligarchy, anonymity, no individual veto power, or extended unanimity preservation. We fully characterize the agendas for which there are such possibilities, thereby answering the most salient open questions about propositionwise judgment aggregation. Our results build on earlier results by Nehring and Puppe (Strategy-proof social choice on single-peaked domains: possibility, impossibility and the space between, 2002), Nehring (Oligarchies in judgment aggregation: a characterization, 2006), Dietrich and List (Soc Choice Welf 29(1):19–33, 2007a) and Dokow and Holzman (J Econ Theory 145(2):495–511, 2010a).     

A new criterion function for exploratory blockmodeling for structural and regular equivalence

We present a new criterion function for blockmodeling two-way two-mode relation matrices when the number of blocks as well as the equivalence relation are unknown. For this, we specify a measure of fit based on data compression theory, which allows for the comparison of blockmodels of different sizes and block types from different equivalence relations. We arm an alternating optimization algorithm with this criterion and demonstrate that the method reproduces consensual blockings of three datasets without any pre-specification. We perform a simulation study where we compare our compression-based criterion to the commonly used criterion that measures the number of inconsistencies with an ideal blockmodel.     

Intergenerational Transfers to Adult Children in Europe: Do Social Policies Matter?

Understanding the role of social policies in intergenerational transfers from old to young people is especially important in times of population aging. This paper focuses on the influences of social expenditures and social services on financial support and on practical help from older parents to their adult children based on the first two waves from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE, N = 60,250 dyads from 13 European countries). Multilevel models showed that social policy plays an important role for intergenerational transfer patterns: The more public assistance was provided to citizens, the more likely parents supported their adult children financially and practically, but this support was less intense in terms of money and time given. Thus, the analyses support the specialization hypothesis that posits a division of labor between family and state for downward intergenerational transfers.     

Race,ethnicity, gender,and generational factors associated with the coming‐out process among gay,lesbian, and bisexual individuals

Age at coming out among gay/lesbian/bisexual (GLB) persons and sexual debut with same‐gendered partners has typically been investigated in samples that do not reflect the racial and ethnic diversity of these communities. Addressing this limitation, data were collected from a diverse sample of men and women attending large‐scale GLB community events in New York and Los Angeles in 2003 (N = 2,733). Compared to older cohorts, younger cohorts (18–24 year olds) of both men and women reported significantly earlier ages for sexual debut with same‐gendered partners, and earlier ages for coming out to themselves and to others. Also, women began the process at later ages than men, as they reported coming out to themselves and sexual debut with a same‐gender partner approximately two years later than men. There were no racial or ethnic differences in age out to self or others; however, people of color were less likely to be out to their parents. Service providers, sexuality educators, and researchers should attend to the diversity in experience of coming out among GLB populations as they relate to the individuals’ gender, age, and racial and ethnic backgrounds.